Unit 1 What is empirical research?
1. The Empirical Cycle
Key Concepts
Empirical Research: Systematic investigation based on observations.
Systematically answering empirical questions through thinking and
observing (= collecting data by using measurements instruments)
Wheel of Science (Empirical Cycle):
1. Theory – Develop an explanation (hypothesis).
2. Research Design – Plan how to test the hypothesis.
3. Data Collection – Gather information using observations,
experiments, or surveys.
4. Data Analysis – Interpret results.
5. Conclusion – Confirm, reject, or modify the theory.
Example: The Cholera Outbreak (Dr. John Snow)
1. Dominant Theory (1850s): Cholera was caused by "bad air" (miasma
theory).
2. New Hypothesis: Cholera is caused by contaminated water.
3. Research Design: Compared households using different water
sources.
4. Data Collection: Mapped cholera deaths in London.
5. Conclusion: The Broad Street pump was the source of the outbreak.
Visual Representation
Empirical Cycle (Wheel of science)
Deduction = Starting with theory and then thinking how we can test the theory
Induction = Starting with data/observations and then trying to arrive at
conclusions
,2. Decision Making & Research Questions
Key Concepts
Empirical Research Questions: Questions that require observation to
answer.
Types of Empirical Research:
1. Descriptive – "What is happening?" (e.g., "How many teenagers
smoke?")
2. Explanatory (Causal) – "Why is it happening?" (e.g., "Why do
teenagers start smoking?")
3. Predictive – "What will happen if...?" (e.g., "Will banning
flavored cigarettes reduce smoking rates?")
Decision-Making Process
1. Problem & Need Analysis – Understanding the issue.
2. Finding & Designing Options – Exploring possible solutions.
3. Ex-Ante Evaluation – Predicting effects.
4. Choice – Selecting the best alternative.
5. Implementation – Putting the decision into action.
6. Ex-Post Evaluation – Checking whether the decision was effective.
Example: Anti-Smoking Policy
Descriptive: How many young people smoke?
Explanatory: Why do they start smoking?
Outcome Evaluation: Did the policy reduce smoking rates?
Process Evaluation: Was the policy implemented correctly?
Empirical RQ are often asked in the context of Decision-making process in which
we ask empirical research questions consisting of explanatory and descriptive
questions:
The ex-post evaluation can be used in the ex-ante options evaluation in a new
RQ.
,3. Doing Research
Types of Research Questions
1. Normative – Ethical or value-based (e.g., "Should euthanasia be
allowed?")
2. Conceptual – Definition-based (e.g., "What is democracy?")
3. Empirical – Based on observations (e.g., "Does democracy lead to
economic growth?")
Example: Sustainability
Normative: Should we prioritize sustainability?
Conceptual: What does "sustainability" mean?
Empirical:
o Descriptive: What percentage of people behave sustainably?
o Explanatory: Why do some people act sustainably while others do
not?
o Outcome Evaluation: Did a sustainability policy work?
Explain the relationship between systematic decision making and
systematically answering empirical questions;
The relationship between systematic decision making and systematically
answering empirical questions can be explained through the overlap between the
decision-making cycle and the "wheel of science." In decision-making research,
empirical research questions (RQs) are often formulated to address real-world
problems. The decision-making cycle involves carefully analyzing a problem,
developing possible solutions, and evaluating options. This process often requires
answering empirical RQs to gather data and insights about the problem.
The wheel of science provides a structured method for answering these empirical
RQs by following a scientific approach, including formulating hypotheses,
gathering data, and drawing conclusions.
Thus, while the decision-making cycle focuses on selecting the best solution for a
given problem, it relies on the systematic process of answering empirical
questions, which is guided by the wheel of science. Both processes are
interconnected, as making informed decisions requires empirical research, and
empirical research often emerges from practical decision-making needs. So,
decision making and answering research questions go hand in hand: you need
research to make smart decisions, and sometimes the need to make a decision
leads you to do research.
4. Confirmation Bias
Definition
, The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that
confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Types of Confirmation Bias
1. Bias in Information Acquisition – Only seeking evidence that
supports beliefs.
2. Bias in Reasoning – Interpreting information in a way that aligns with
expectations.
3. Bias in Memory – Forgetting contradictory evidence.
Examples
Politics: Pearl Harbor (ignored warning signs).
Crime: Wrongful convictions due to selective evidence.
Business: Groupthink (avoiding dissenting opinions).
Science: Publication bias (only publishing studies that confirm expected
results).
How to Avoid Confirmation Bias?
Use Systematic Data Collection – Consider all available evidence.
Follow the Scientific Method – Test hypotheses without preconceptions.
Explicit Reasoning – Write down and test assumptions logically.
5. Avoiding Confirmation Bias: Case Study
Example: Flat Earth Experiment
A Flat Earth believer conducted an experiment using a laser to prove the
Earth is flat.
The test actually proved the Earth is curved, but the believer initially
ignored the result.
This is a classic example of confirmation bias—interpreting data to fit
beliefs instead of following the evidence.
Lessons Learned
Use explicit research procedures to avoid bias.
Be open to falsification—evidence that disproves a hypothesis.
Logical data interpretation is essential.
CB is NOT based on intelligence.
By clear thinking and observing, we avoid CB through objective, systematic
data gathering, being aware of what can go wrong and being explicit about it with
complete reasoning. This can be done by the usage of research methods in which
you…
Clarify your pre-existing beliefs (theory)
Clarify the procedures you will use to test these beliefs (methods)
Stick to these procedures!
1. The Empirical Cycle
Key Concepts
Empirical Research: Systematic investigation based on observations.
Systematically answering empirical questions through thinking and
observing (= collecting data by using measurements instruments)
Wheel of Science (Empirical Cycle):
1. Theory – Develop an explanation (hypothesis).
2. Research Design – Plan how to test the hypothesis.
3. Data Collection – Gather information using observations,
experiments, or surveys.
4. Data Analysis – Interpret results.
5. Conclusion – Confirm, reject, or modify the theory.
Example: The Cholera Outbreak (Dr. John Snow)
1. Dominant Theory (1850s): Cholera was caused by "bad air" (miasma
theory).
2. New Hypothesis: Cholera is caused by contaminated water.
3. Research Design: Compared households using different water
sources.
4. Data Collection: Mapped cholera deaths in London.
5. Conclusion: The Broad Street pump was the source of the outbreak.
Visual Representation
Empirical Cycle (Wheel of science)
Deduction = Starting with theory and then thinking how we can test the theory
Induction = Starting with data/observations and then trying to arrive at
conclusions
,2. Decision Making & Research Questions
Key Concepts
Empirical Research Questions: Questions that require observation to
answer.
Types of Empirical Research:
1. Descriptive – "What is happening?" (e.g., "How many teenagers
smoke?")
2. Explanatory (Causal) – "Why is it happening?" (e.g., "Why do
teenagers start smoking?")
3. Predictive – "What will happen if...?" (e.g., "Will banning
flavored cigarettes reduce smoking rates?")
Decision-Making Process
1. Problem & Need Analysis – Understanding the issue.
2. Finding & Designing Options – Exploring possible solutions.
3. Ex-Ante Evaluation – Predicting effects.
4. Choice – Selecting the best alternative.
5. Implementation – Putting the decision into action.
6. Ex-Post Evaluation – Checking whether the decision was effective.
Example: Anti-Smoking Policy
Descriptive: How many young people smoke?
Explanatory: Why do they start smoking?
Outcome Evaluation: Did the policy reduce smoking rates?
Process Evaluation: Was the policy implemented correctly?
Empirical RQ are often asked in the context of Decision-making process in which
we ask empirical research questions consisting of explanatory and descriptive
questions:
The ex-post evaluation can be used in the ex-ante options evaluation in a new
RQ.
,3. Doing Research
Types of Research Questions
1. Normative – Ethical or value-based (e.g., "Should euthanasia be
allowed?")
2. Conceptual – Definition-based (e.g., "What is democracy?")
3. Empirical – Based on observations (e.g., "Does democracy lead to
economic growth?")
Example: Sustainability
Normative: Should we prioritize sustainability?
Conceptual: What does "sustainability" mean?
Empirical:
o Descriptive: What percentage of people behave sustainably?
o Explanatory: Why do some people act sustainably while others do
not?
o Outcome Evaluation: Did a sustainability policy work?
Explain the relationship between systematic decision making and
systematically answering empirical questions;
The relationship between systematic decision making and systematically
answering empirical questions can be explained through the overlap between the
decision-making cycle and the "wheel of science." In decision-making research,
empirical research questions (RQs) are often formulated to address real-world
problems. The decision-making cycle involves carefully analyzing a problem,
developing possible solutions, and evaluating options. This process often requires
answering empirical RQs to gather data and insights about the problem.
The wheel of science provides a structured method for answering these empirical
RQs by following a scientific approach, including formulating hypotheses,
gathering data, and drawing conclusions.
Thus, while the decision-making cycle focuses on selecting the best solution for a
given problem, it relies on the systematic process of answering empirical
questions, which is guided by the wheel of science. Both processes are
interconnected, as making informed decisions requires empirical research, and
empirical research often emerges from practical decision-making needs. So,
decision making and answering research questions go hand in hand: you need
research to make smart decisions, and sometimes the need to make a decision
leads you to do research.
4. Confirmation Bias
Definition
, The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that
confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Types of Confirmation Bias
1. Bias in Information Acquisition – Only seeking evidence that
supports beliefs.
2. Bias in Reasoning – Interpreting information in a way that aligns with
expectations.
3. Bias in Memory – Forgetting contradictory evidence.
Examples
Politics: Pearl Harbor (ignored warning signs).
Crime: Wrongful convictions due to selective evidence.
Business: Groupthink (avoiding dissenting opinions).
Science: Publication bias (only publishing studies that confirm expected
results).
How to Avoid Confirmation Bias?
Use Systematic Data Collection – Consider all available evidence.
Follow the Scientific Method – Test hypotheses without preconceptions.
Explicit Reasoning – Write down and test assumptions logically.
5. Avoiding Confirmation Bias: Case Study
Example: Flat Earth Experiment
A Flat Earth believer conducted an experiment using a laser to prove the
Earth is flat.
The test actually proved the Earth is curved, but the believer initially
ignored the result.
This is a classic example of confirmation bias—interpreting data to fit
beliefs instead of following the evidence.
Lessons Learned
Use explicit research procedures to avoid bias.
Be open to falsification—evidence that disproves a hypothesis.
Logical data interpretation is essential.
CB is NOT based on intelligence.
By clear thinking and observing, we avoid CB through objective, systematic
data gathering, being aware of what can go wrong and being explicit about it with
complete reasoning. This can be done by the usage of research methods in which
you…
Clarify your pre-existing beliefs (theory)
Clarify the procedures you will use to test these beliefs (methods)
Stick to these procedures!
