SECURITY STUDIES
Introduction to Safety & Security pt. II
Abstract
This document will give an in-depth summary about all the
lectures of the second half of this block. Together with my pt.I
summary, this information will be tests on your final at the end
of October. This summary will again include definitions to
important concepts, examples, tables, and useful slides from the
actual lectures.
Yulia Göbel
2023
, What is risk? 27-09-2023: van den Berg
Incident= when an accident actually happens > materializes (crisis).
Manmade risks= risks that are made by human beings.
Multi-dimensional= multiple aspects that are combined into a
perspective.
One-dimensional= only focus on one variable to try to get a handle on
risks.
Risk= the likelihood (chance) that something (danger/threat) may (not)
happen
Denotes the possibility that an undesirable state of reality
(adverse
effects) may occur as a result of natural events or human
activities.
Zero-risk-society= a society where people are super aware of all the
many
, Introduction to S&S (pt. II)
things that can potentially go wrong around
them, when
in fact, objectively they live in societies that were never
as
safe as ever before in history as
before. Objectively, we’ve
also been never more afraid.
Safety & Security (S&S) are the core concepts of this Bass, but underneath
these concepts are the notion ‘risk’.
For the longest of time ‘risk as a term’ did not exist. Even though ‘risk-
taking’ is nowadays one of the key-notions and can turn out
negative/positive. Risk is also about uncertainty.
Risk always involves three elements: emphasizes on the potential of
harm.
1) Chances;
The likelihood that something does (not) happen.
2) Future;
It must happen towards we can move and (not) meet particular
incidents.
o Point in time when it may can materialize;
o Prediction (likelihood & consequences).
Example: dying is an incident, but the way you die is a risk.
3) Intervention (the feeling that people can have influence about the
incident)
Prevent the incidents from happening;
Reduce the likelihood;
Reduce the potential impact once an incident does arrive.
Risks can be quantifiable or unquantifiable.
The connection between the State of Normalcy and our concerns over S&S
is the fact that there is ‘risk’ > Life is risky.
Risk comes from the Italian-word: ‘risciare’ > to dare.
What is uncertainty?
Different vulnerabilities;
o Sometimes leads to dangers (safety) or threats (security);
o Risk sits in between.
If a danger/threat is certain > materializes and becomes a
crisis/disaster.
Subway uncertainty;
o General idea that you get a pattern with a
particular regularity;
o You can’t predict exactly, but there are no
major disruptions > reasonable predictable;
Page 1 of 37
, Introduction to S&S (pt. II)
o Probabilistic (theory) thinking > bell-curve model with some (small)
margins.
Coconut uncertainty;
o An occurrence at an extremely rare incidents with critical
consequences;
o Sometimes things happen that you can’t foresee or predict;
Freak accidents > rare incidents with catastrophically
consequences;
Scatter pattern > happens very often (no model).
“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting
in … because as we know, there are no knowns. There are things we know
we know and we also know that there are no unknowns. That is the same
we know that there are some
things that we do not know.
But there are also unknown
unknowns, the ones that we
don’t know, we don’t know.”
Known knowns Things we know; that are certain, The grass is green;
No risks and we know the outcome. The sun rises;
Don’t involve risks. We’re going to die;
Known unknowns Things we know we don’t know; Calculating the likelihood, but do
We know a risk exist & what the not know the outcome.
Involves risks potential outcome will be, but not
the particular outcome.
There is uncertainty in knowing
when it will materialize.
Unquantifiable > coconut Cyber security;
Uncertaint Financial crisis;
y Terrorist attacks
intentional attacks.
Aeroplane safety;
Page 2 of 37
Introduction to Safety & Security pt. II
Abstract
This document will give an in-depth summary about all the
lectures of the second half of this block. Together with my pt.I
summary, this information will be tests on your final at the end
of October. This summary will again include definitions to
important concepts, examples, tables, and useful slides from the
actual lectures.
Yulia Göbel
2023
, What is risk? 27-09-2023: van den Berg
Incident= when an accident actually happens > materializes (crisis).
Manmade risks= risks that are made by human beings.
Multi-dimensional= multiple aspects that are combined into a
perspective.
One-dimensional= only focus on one variable to try to get a handle on
risks.
Risk= the likelihood (chance) that something (danger/threat) may (not)
happen
Denotes the possibility that an undesirable state of reality
(adverse
effects) may occur as a result of natural events or human
activities.
Zero-risk-society= a society where people are super aware of all the
many
, Introduction to S&S (pt. II)
things that can potentially go wrong around
them, when
in fact, objectively they live in societies that were never
as
safe as ever before in history as
before. Objectively, we’ve
also been never more afraid.
Safety & Security (S&S) are the core concepts of this Bass, but underneath
these concepts are the notion ‘risk’.
For the longest of time ‘risk as a term’ did not exist. Even though ‘risk-
taking’ is nowadays one of the key-notions and can turn out
negative/positive. Risk is also about uncertainty.
Risk always involves three elements: emphasizes on the potential of
harm.
1) Chances;
The likelihood that something does (not) happen.
2) Future;
It must happen towards we can move and (not) meet particular
incidents.
o Point in time when it may can materialize;
o Prediction (likelihood & consequences).
Example: dying is an incident, but the way you die is a risk.
3) Intervention (the feeling that people can have influence about the
incident)
Prevent the incidents from happening;
Reduce the likelihood;
Reduce the potential impact once an incident does arrive.
Risks can be quantifiable or unquantifiable.
The connection between the State of Normalcy and our concerns over S&S
is the fact that there is ‘risk’ > Life is risky.
Risk comes from the Italian-word: ‘risciare’ > to dare.
What is uncertainty?
Different vulnerabilities;
o Sometimes leads to dangers (safety) or threats (security);
o Risk sits in between.
If a danger/threat is certain > materializes and becomes a
crisis/disaster.
Subway uncertainty;
o General idea that you get a pattern with a
particular regularity;
o You can’t predict exactly, but there are no
major disruptions > reasonable predictable;
Page 1 of 37
, Introduction to S&S (pt. II)
o Probabilistic (theory) thinking > bell-curve model with some (small)
margins.
Coconut uncertainty;
o An occurrence at an extremely rare incidents with critical
consequences;
o Sometimes things happen that you can’t foresee or predict;
Freak accidents > rare incidents with catastrophically
consequences;
Scatter pattern > happens very often (no model).
“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting
in … because as we know, there are no knowns. There are things we know
we know and we also know that there are no unknowns. That is the same
we know that there are some
things that we do not know.
But there are also unknown
unknowns, the ones that we
don’t know, we don’t know.”
Known knowns Things we know; that are certain, The grass is green;
No risks and we know the outcome. The sun rises;
Don’t involve risks. We’re going to die;
Known unknowns Things we know we don’t know; Calculating the likelihood, but do
We know a risk exist & what the not know the outcome.
Involves risks potential outcome will be, but not
the particular outcome.
There is uncertainty in knowing
when it will materialize.
Unquantifiable > coconut Cyber security;
Uncertaint Financial crisis;
y Terrorist attacks
intentional attacks.
Aeroplane safety;
Page 2 of 37
