Volledige samenvatting Application of Theories (incl. artikelen)

SAMENVATTING APPLICITION OF THEORIES



Hoorcollege 1: Introduction and value general theories
WHERE HAVE ALL THE CRIMINALS GONE

- STRONG ECONOMY
o Theory: the decline in crime was accompanied by a blistering national
economy and a significant drop in unemployment. The economy seemed to
be a hammer that helped beat down crime.
o Critique: the murder rate fell faster than any other type of crime in de 90s.
No link has been shown between the economy and violent crime. So while
a strong economy in the 90s might seem like a likely explanation for the
drop in crime, it almost certainly didn’t affect criminal behavior.
- INNOVATIVE POLICING
o Theory: broken-window-theory. New York was a clear innovator in police
strategies during the 90s crime drop. It also enjoyed the greatest decline in
crime.
o Critique: crime rates fell in almost every state in America during the 90s,
not just in New York.
- THOUGHER GUN LAWS
o Guns can be easily obtained from the black market
o According to John R. Lott, crime will be reduced when the right people own
the guns

LEVITT’S THEORY

The legalization of abortion has led to a decrease of crime rates. Women will chose
abortion because they predict their child, had they been born, would have led unhappy
and possibly criminal lives.

In the early 90s, the year during which young men enter their criminal prime, the rate of
crime began the fall. What this cohort was missing, of course, were the children who
stood the greatest change of becoming criminals.

The states with the highest abortion rates in the 1970s experienced the greatest crime
drops in the 1990s, while states with low abortion rates experienced smaller crime drops.



Hoorcollege 2: Explanation and prediction

WHY-QUESTIONS are related to EXPLANATIONS

WILL-QUESTIONS are related to PREDICTIONS

Theories indicate why a certain phenomenon could cause protests. Theories are general
statements (laws) that aren’t restricted to specific objects, dates or places.

THE COVERING LAW MODEL – SIMPLE CASE

- The covering law model is a general method of explaining and predicting
- VB: Why did so many people join the protest in Leipzig?

, Always if many people are dissatisfied with their living conditions, they
protest (Premise 1)
In Leipzig 1989, many people were dissatisfied with their living conditions
(Premise 2)
In Leipzig 1989, many people protested (Conclusion)
EXPLANANS: Statements that explain explanandum. At least 1 general statement (law) and
1 singular statement (auxiliary assumption)

EXPLANANDUM: Statement to be explained, singular statement

The covering law model extension 1: adding restrictions to the scope of the law

It holds for all S; if X,
then Y
z is S
z is X
For z it holds that Y



The covering law model extension 2: more specific conclusion

If X, then Y
z is X
For z it holds
that Ya
In a valid explanation; Ya must be identical to the then-part of the law (Y). Or Y must be
an element of Ya

Invalid: Valid:




CONDITIONS OF ADEQUACY:

1. The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans
2. The explanans must contain at least one general law (and at least one singular
statement)
3. The explanans must have empirical content
4. All statements of the explanans must be true

PROBLEMS WITH PROBABILISTIC LAWS:

 Falsifiability
 Explaining specific events
 Predicting unique ‘events’ with probabilistic laws

PROBLEMS OF THE COVERING LAW MODEL:

 A single counter example falsifies a general law
o General laws hardly possible in the social sciences, at best probabilistic
 ‘OK predictions but empty explanations’
o The conditions of adequacy are met (conclusion follows from premises;
premises are true)