Liberal Democrats 2023 Review
Context:
2010 = 57 seats
2015 = 8 seats, not the third biggest party (due to SNP)
2017 = 12 seats
2019 = 11 seats
Last 2 years = 3 by-election wins
By-election wins 2021-22:
Chesham and Amersham June 2021 - C vote share reduced to 35.5% (down from 55.4%), LDs
increased vote share from 26.3% 2019 to 56.7% after high-profile campaign by Sarah Green.
North Shropshire December 2021 - in general election the LDs had come 3rd with 10%, at
by-election Helen Morgon achieved 27.2% swing to win the seat (L had run a lowkey
campaign and its suggested that L supporters were encouraged to vote LD at this by-
election).
Honiton and Tiverton June 2022 - considered to be one of the safest C seats in country, since
2010 the gap between Cs and the second party widened in every election, 2019 C candidate
Parish had won 62.2%, C by-election candidate Hurford distanced herself from the Cs, LD
helped by L keeping its campaign to a minimum, LD candidate Foord won with 52.2%.
Factors that led to success in by-elections:
LDs have a history of by-election success and can bring about substantial swings.
They are many voters' second choice - unlike major parties, they don't find it hard to
persuade voters to switch, 2019 election = LDs came 2nd in 91 constituencies (including
Chesham and Amersham).
Strategies used - choose people connected to localities (e.g. Foord was already living in
Devon and was a former army officer meaning he appealed to typical C voters).
Campaigns fought by LDs tend to be local - focus on specific issues, realistic and achievable,
avoid emphasis on national issues over which they have little influence, (e.g. Chesham and
Amersham by-election, LD candidate Green ran on a platform of opposing the HS2 rail link
and rejecting changes to planning laws that would have seen more hostile built in Amersham
and Chesham).
LD supporters encouraged to be active in by-election campaigns by delivering leaflets and
talking to voters - raise the profile and show that they care, LDs bring in activists from across
the country near polling day, looks popular.
Smaller national-level profile which means this local effort is worth the effort (unlike L or Cs).
2022 local council election wins:
LDs did far better than predicted, won 868 council seats in total, 224 more than they held
previously.
Won control of a few, including Hull, Woking and Gosport.
Successes in newly formed council areas such as Somerset where they gained 37 of 61 seats.
Successful defence of all 11 councils where they were already in charge (the only party to do
so).
Due to low profile at Westminster - not held to account for national policies or leadership,
focus on local issues (e.g. North Bedfordshire and focus on fixing potholes in local roads),
keep their achievement at forefront of voters' minds with printed bulletins updated every 6
weeks.
Context:
2010 = 57 seats
2015 = 8 seats, not the third biggest party (due to SNP)
2017 = 12 seats
2019 = 11 seats
Last 2 years = 3 by-election wins
By-election wins 2021-22:
Chesham and Amersham June 2021 - C vote share reduced to 35.5% (down from 55.4%), LDs
increased vote share from 26.3% 2019 to 56.7% after high-profile campaign by Sarah Green.
North Shropshire December 2021 - in general election the LDs had come 3rd with 10%, at
by-election Helen Morgon achieved 27.2% swing to win the seat (L had run a lowkey
campaign and its suggested that L supporters were encouraged to vote LD at this by-
election).
Honiton and Tiverton June 2022 - considered to be one of the safest C seats in country, since
2010 the gap between Cs and the second party widened in every election, 2019 C candidate
Parish had won 62.2%, C by-election candidate Hurford distanced herself from the Cs, LD
helped by L keeping its campaign to a minimum, LD candidate Foord won with 52.2%.
Factors that led to success in by-elections:
LDs have a history of by-election success and can bring about substantial swings.
They are many voters' second choice - unlike major parties, they don't find it hard to
persuade voters to switch, 2019 election = LDs came 2nd in 91 constituencies (including
Chesham and Amersham).
Strategies used - choose people connected to localities (e.g. Foord was already living in
Devon and was a former army officer meaning he appealed to typical C voters).
Campaigns fought by LDs tend to be local - focus on specific issues, realistic and achievable,
avoid emphasis on national issues over which they have little influence, (e.g. Chesham and
Amersham by-election, LD candidate Green ran on a platform of opposing the HS2 rail link
and rejecting changes to planning laws that would have seen more hostile built in Amersham
and Chesham).
LD supporters encouraged to be active in by-election campaigns by delivering leaflets and
talking to voters - raise the profile and show that they care, LDs bring in activists from across
the country near polling day, looks popular.
Smaller national-level profile which means this local effort is worth the effort (unlike L or Cs).
2022 local council election wins:
LDs did far better than predicted, won 868 council seats in total, 224 more than they held
previously.
Won control of a few, including Hull, Woking and Gosport.
Successes in newly formed council areas such as Somerset where they gained 37 of 61 seats.
Successful defence of all 11 councils where they were already in charge (the only party to do
so).
Due to low profile at Westminster - not held to account for national policies or leadership,
focus on local issues (e.g. North Bedfordshire and focus on fixing potholes in local roads),
keep their achievement at forefront of voters' minds with printed bulletins updated every 6
weeks.
