How to research trends
Els Dragt
Inhoudsopgave
Chapter 1: Rewind......................................................................................................................................... 2
Chapter 2: Framework................................................................................................................................... 4
Chapter 3: Scan............................................................................................................................................ 10
Step 1: Spot........................................................................................................................................................11
Step 2: Select......................................................................................................................................................14
Step 3: Document...............................................................................................................................................14
Chapter 4: Analyse....................................................................................................................................... 16
Step 1: Cluster....................................................................................................................................................16
Step 2: Validate..................................................................................................................................................16
Step 3: Label.......................................................................................................................................................17
Chapter 5: Apply.......................................................................................................................................... 19
Step 1: Scope......................................................................................................................................................19
Step 2: Communicate.........................................................................................................................................20
Step 3: Translate................................................................................................................................................21
1
,Chapter 1: Rewind
Trend research is about detecting signs of change happening right now and the
directions these indicate to possible futures.
Why research trends?
In the context of an ever-changing world, trend research can be used as a
method to identify and understand change in a structured way in order to be
aware of possible directions of change. Trend insights can steer one towards a
more consciously chose future and provide input to infuence the future. A trend
is a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and already
manifests itself in various wats within certain groups in society.
Detect
Trend research is frstly about detecting manifestations of change happening
right now.
Understand
By analysing all manifestations of change and their underlying drivers you will
understand these from a wider, transdisciplinary and holistic perspective.
Act
Trend research serves as a foundation for vision building, strategy development
and guides decision making. Trend research draws your attention to likely
changes and challenges.
Past, present, future
You are dealing with people’s notions of the past, present and future. Time is a
social construct. We use the past to guide our present-day behaviour, which in
turn infuences the way we build images of the future. When researching trends,
it is therefore essential to understand how the past, present and future are
interconnected.
Past
Historical accounts are often subjective and refected upon from a specifc
cultural angle. Information about the past is mainly used to understand our
present-day behaviour.
Present
Your behaviour in the present infuences the future. The present holds a
collection of turning points which create trails into a variety of possible futures.
People tend to project the present and current issues onto the future as if nothing
else might change along the way: as if it is a linear, continuous storyline, while
many unexpected events can change our present-day reality within the blink of
an eye.
Future
The future should not be seen as a linear continuation of the past and present.
The future is a social construct. It is shaped by people’s perceptions of the past
and present and by their expectations of the future.
Prediction or exploration?
2
, is prediction of the future possible at all? That depends mainly on how you look at
the future is a philosophical kind of way. These three approaches of the future
are widely used:
The future is determined: this approach sees the future as fxed and
determined by fate and destiny.
The future is open but not empty: This approach sees our future as open
but not totally empty because is it partly shaped by our actions in the past
and present.
The future is open: This approach believes the future is open and can be
completely infuenced by human beings.
The future is uncertain and open within limits. As a trend researcher you may not
be able to predict the future, but you can use your trend insights to explore
various futures. You can make an educated guess about how trends might play
out in diferent ways in the nearby future.
A profession
The domain of trend research is fairly new, which makes is difcult to grasp.
There is a wide diversity in background of practitioners of trend research. Trend
experts can have backgrounds ranging from psychology or economy to
communication, design or engineering. These diferent backgrounds and
educations make trend research a very interdisciplinary and diverse domain.
Adding to the confusion is the fact that trend researchers do not have a shared
consensus about defnitions, terminologies and methodologies to use in trend
research.
A trend researcher should be:
Curious
Non-judgemental
Interdisciplinary
Holistic
Analytic
Creative
Persistent
Visual
Recognisable
Storyteller
3
Els Dragt
Inhoudsopgave
Chapter 1: Rewind......................................................................................................................................... 2
Chapter 2: Framework................................................................................................................................... 4
Chapter 3: Scan............................................................................................................................................ 10
Step 1: Spot........................................................................................................................................................11
Step 2: Select......................................................................................................................................................14
Step 3: Document...............................................................................................................................................14
Chapter 4: Analyse....................................................................................................................................... 16
Step 1: Cluster....................................................................................................................................................16
Step 2: Validate..................................................................................................................................................16
Step 3: Label.......................................................................................................................................................17
Chapter 5: Apply.......................................................................................................................................... 19
Step 1: Scope......................................................................................................................................................19
Step 2: Communicate.........................................................................................................................................20
Step 3: Translate................................................................................................................................................21
1
,Chapter 1: Rewind
Trend research is about detecting signs of change happening right now and the
directions these indicate to possible futures.
Why research trends?
In the context of an ever-changing world, trend research can be used as a
method to identify and understand change in a structured way in order to be
aware of possible directions of change. Trend insights can steer one towards a
more consciously chose future and provide input to infuence the future. A trend
is a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and already
manifests itself in various wats within certain groups in society.
Detect
Trend research is frstly about detecting manifestations of change happening
right now.
Understand
By analysing all manifestations of change and their underlying drivers you will
understand these from a wider, transdisciplinary and holistic perspective.
Act
Trend research serves as a foundation for vision building, strategy development
and guides decision making. Trend research draws your attention to likely
changes and challenges.
Past, present, future
You are dealing with people’s notions of the past, present and future. Time is a
social construct. We use the past to guide our present-day behaviour, which in
turn infuences the way we build images of the future. When researching trends,
it is therefore essential to understand how the past, present and future are
interconnected.
Past
Historical accounts are often subjective and refected upon from a specifc
cultural angle. Information about the past is mainly used to understand our
present-day behaviour.
Present
Your behaviour in the present infuences the future. The present holds a
collection of turning points which create trails into a variety of possible futures.
People tend to project the present and current issues onto the future as if nothing
else might change along the way: as if it is a linear, continuous storyline, while
many unexpected events can change our present-day reality within the blink of
an eye.
Future
The future should not be seen as a linear continuation of the past and present.
The future is a social construct. It is shaped by people’s perceptions of the past
and present and by their expectations of the future.
Prediction or exploration?
2
, is prediction of the future possible at all? That depends mainly on how you look at
the future is a philosophical kind of way. These three approaches of the future
are widely used:
The future is determined: this approach sees the future as fxed and
determined by fate and destiny.
The future is open but not empty: This approach sees our future as open
but not totally empty because is it partly shaped by our actions in the past
and present.
The future is open: This approach believes the future is open and can be
completely infuenced by human beings.
The future is uncertain and open within limits. As a trend researcher you may not
be able to predict the future, but you can use your trend insights to explore
various futures. You can make an educated guess about how trends might play
out in diferent ways in the nearby future.
A profession
The domain of trend research is fairly new, which makes is difcult to grasp.
There is a wide diversity in background of practitioners of trend research. Trend
experts can have backgrounds ranging from psychology or economy to
communication, design or engineering. These diferent backgrounds and
educations make trend research a very interdisciplinary and diverse domain.
Adding to the confusion is the fact that trend researchers do not have a shared
consensus about defnitions, terminologies and methodologies to use in trend
research.
A trend researcher should be:
Curious
Non-judgemental
Interdisciplinary
Holistic
Analytic
Creative
Persistent
Visual
Recognisable
Storyteller
3
