The Russian Intelligence Community and the recent invasion of Ukraine: the
cause of the failure.
Data collection report
S1871595
MSc Crisis and Security Management. Intelligence and National Security
Universiteit Leiden
Global Perspectives in Intelligence
Dr. Z. Shiraz
18-10-2022
1
, Introduction to research
This report aims to answer the question: ‘’to what extent has the Russian Intelligence
Community failed in Russo-Ukraine War?’’ Previous research into the Russian ‘managed
democracy’ has led me to a better understanding of the authoritarian structures within Russia.
This research for my thesis was more on a ‘macro-level’. Scrutinizing the Russian Intelligence
Community will be more specific and thus a specialization. The recent phase in the Russo-
Ukraine war is an interesting case study regarding the IC's failure. Especially, since intelligence
failure has proven a subject widely discussed within the discipline of intelligence. An
intelligence failure on the level of the Yom Kippur War and the Al-Qaeda attack on 9/11 has
most definitely been a turning point when it comes to the functioning and blueprint of an
intelligence community. Therefore, investigating the role of the Russian IC in the wrongful
estimation of Russian progress in Ukraine will add to the debates about intelligence failures,
the Russian IC in general and the functioning of authoritarian regimes. Since the scope of this
research is multi-disciplinary, the sources come from multiple disciplines as well. Sources
come from history, foreign policy, governmental websites and also intelligence studies.
The research report aims to contribute to the discussion surrounding the Kremlin
reformulating the goals in the Ukraine invasion. In the broader debate researchers argue
about why Russia suffered so many losses in the Russian-Ukrainian War and how come the
Russian military invaded with relatively small numbers.
Researching an intelligence community outside of the anglosphere has mostly been
conducted with methods and biases originating from the anglosphere. Only recently, we have
seen a shift towards research where a holistic approach abates the Anglocentrical approach
to an intelligence apparatus. Having conducted previous research without a notion of the
biases which stem from the anglosphere, detaching myself from this bias will prove a
challenge.
This report discusses the process of data collection and is mostly reflective of nature.
However, the findings of the collection process so far will be discussed with their limitations
and value. The limited scope of this research demands clear demarcation when it comes to
scrutinizing the Russian IC. Therefore, the Russian IC will be discussed on the subjects of
leadership and covert action.
2
cause of the failure.
Data collection report
S1871595
MSc Crisis and Security Management. Intelligence and National Security
Universiteit Leiden
Global Perspectives in Intelligence
Dr. Z. Shiraz
18-10-2022
1
, Introduction to research
This report aims to answer the question: ‘’to what extent has the Russian Intelligence
Community failed in Russo-Ukraine War?’’ Previous research into the Russian ‘managed
democracy’ has led me to a better understanding of the authoritarian structures within Russia.
This research for my thesis was more on a ‘macro-level’. Scrutinizing the Russian Intelligence
Community will be more specific and thus a specialization. The recent phase in the Russo-
Ukraine war is an interesting case study regarding the IC's failure. Especially, since intelligence
failure has proven a subject widely discussed within the discipline of intelligence. An
intelligence failure on the level of the Yom Kippur War and the Al-Qaeda attack on 9/11 has
most definitely been a turning point when it comes to the functioning and blueprint of an
intelligence community. Therefore, investigating the role of the Russian IC in the wrongful
estimation of Russian progress in Ukraine will add to the debates about intelligence failures,
the Russian IC in general and the functioning of authoritarian regimes. Since the scope of this
research is multi-disciplinary, the sources come from multiple disciplines as well. Sources
come from history, foreign policy, governmental websites and also intelligence studies.
The research report aims to contribute to the discussion surrounding the Kremlin
reformulating the goals in the Ukraine invasion. In the broader debate researchers argue
about why Russia suffered so many losses in the Russian-Ukrainian War and how come the
Russian military invaded with relatively small numbers.
Researching an intelligence community outside of the anglosphere has mostly been
conducted with methods and biases originating from the anglosphere. Only recently, we have
seen a shift towards research where a holistic approach abates the Anglocentrical approach
to an intelligence apparatus. Having conducted previous research without a notion of the
biases which stem from the anglosphere, detaching myself from this bias will prove a
challenge.
This report discusses the process of data collection and is mostly reflective of nature.
However, the findings of the collection process so far will be discussed with their limitations
and value. The limited scope of this research demands clear demarcation when it comes to
scrutinizing the Russian IC. Therefore, the Russian IC will be discussed on the subjects of
leadership and covert action.
2
