Lecture notes, Demography and Epidemiology of Ageing and
Migration in the EU
1, Demography in the EU
A definition of population study
A study of the numbers and kinds of people in an area and their changes.
Seeking explanations for the pattern of variation in a population.
Projecting future changes and analysing future consequences.
Demography is the statistical analysis of population data.
Sources of data
• Historical sources: genealogies, cemetery data, church records, military records,
censuses
• Population registers (not always accurate)
Topics of study
- Population size and distribution
- Mortality and morbidity
- Fertility and contraception
- Mobility and migration
- Population composition (age, gender, race, ethnicity)
- Population characteristics (education, economic status, marital and family status,
living patterns)
Demographic transition
A decrease of death rates followed by a period of a strong decrease in birth rates
Epidemiologic transition
Dominance of infectious diseases → dominance of chronic diseases
*Both are related because demographic transitions lead to epidemiologic transitions
Life expectancy increase
1850: 40 years in NL
2019: 80,5 (M) and 83,6 (F) years in NL
2021: 79,7 (M) and 83,0 (F) years in NL → due to covid
The increase is due to:
- Better hygiene (suage system)
- Better nutrition
- To lesser extent: interventions like antibiotics and vaccines
,Epidemiologic transition (4 stages)
- Stage 1: war
- Stage 2: children must provide for parents so lots of kids
- Stage 3: more food available
- Stage 4: current stage
Demographic changes in The Netherlands
1970 and 1980 = sexual revolution
Birth control and church had less influence, thus less children were being born.
2000’s
Women get children at a later age.
2030 (estimated)
We expect to have more people due to immigration.
Demographic changes in England and Wales after WW1
,Demographic transition
Decrease in mortality and decrease in births.
This results in increase in life expectancy and increase in population numbers.
In NL, less young people, and more older people.
And more immigrants than migrants.
Population changes are due to
• Birth
• Death
• Migration
• Immigration
- War
- Natural disasters
2019:
▪ Spain, low fertility, bad economy
▪ France, high fertility, catholic country
▪ Afrika, higher birth rates (also high adolescent birth rates)
Shift in mortality
18th century: infectious disease, famine
Early 20th century: CVD and cancer
Now: ditto, only at later age
,Determinants
Exogenous:
- Physical environment
- Lifestyle
- Social surrounding
Endogenous:
- Hereditary
- Gained (somatic/psychic)
Socio-economic status:
- Education
- Occupational class
- Income
Differences between:
- Gender, city/countryside, indigenous and immigrants
Future trends
▪ Population growth in Africa and Asia, in poor regions.
▪ Birth rates in Europe below replacement level. Ageing populations.
▪ Migration (war, famine, and climate) within Europe and to Europe.
▪ Rapid urbanisation.
China
1 child policy → 2 child policy → no policy on children
- Girls would get killed
- Not enough young people to take care of the older generation
Many elderly people, more women
Gap in 40-60 years
Few young people, more men
Covid-19 aftermath
Baby boom in NL and Germany.
But in France, Italy, and Spain there is more income uncertainty and less fertility
treatments due to reduced hospital access during a pandemic. There is also a
decrease in migrants.
,
, 2, Past and current developments
Migration
A movement of people from one administrative territory or border to another.
This can be external or internal.
Migration is primarily driven by search for better opportunities (work, health,
education, lifestyle) and preferred lifestyle elsewhere.
UN definitions:
• An international migrant who changes his or her place of usual residence
for at least one year is defined as a long-term migrant.
• A person who changes his or her place of usual residence for more than
three months but less than one year is considered to be a short-term
migrant.
Refugee
Someone who is unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a
well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality,
membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.
Historic points
The era of colonialism started in the 16th century.
Industrialisation (leading to urbanisation) took place in the 18th century.
After the world wars there was a transformation of western Europe from a region of
colonizers and emigrants to a region of immigration.
Decolonization led to the end of large-scale European emigration and to the
departure of European settlers from Africa and Asia.
There was recruitment-based and spontaneous migration to Europe.
Since the 1960’s, the Mediterranean, in particular Turkey and Morocco become
predominant sources of migrant workers in Western and Southern Europe.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, countries in central and eastern Europe
become main labour suppliers to western European economies.
Since the 2000’s, immigration from Latin America and Asia to Europe gained ground.
Understanding migration
• Change in migration patterns → seasonal vs. permanent migration
• Clandestine / illegal / unsafe migration
• Discrimination towards different groups of migrants
Migration in the EU
1, Demography in the EU
A definition of population study
A study of the numbers and kinds of people in an area and their changes.
Seeking explanations for the pattern of variation in a population.
Projecting future changes and analysing future consequences.
Demography is the statistical analysis of population data.
Sources of data
• Historical sources: genealogies, cemetery data, church records, military records,
censuses
• Population registers (not always accurate)
Topics of study
- Population size and distribution
- Mortality and morbidity
- Fertility and contraception
- Mobility and migration
- Population composition (age, gender, race, ethnicity)
- Population characteristics (education, economic status, marital and family status,
living patterns)
Demographic transition
A decrease of death rates followed by a period of a strong decrease in birth rates
Epidemiologic transition
Dominance of infectious diseases → dominance of chronic diseases
*Both are related because demographic transitions lead to epidemiologic transitions
Life expectancy increase
1850: 40 years in NL
2019: 80,5 (M) and 83,6 (F) years in NL
2021: 79,7 (M) and 83,0 (F) years in NL → due to covid
The increase is due to:
- Better hygiene (suage system)
- Better nutrition
- To lesser extent: interventions like antibiotics and vaccines
,Epidemiologic transition (4 stages)
- Stage 1: war
- Stage 2: children must provide for parents so lots of kids
- Stage 3: more food available
- Stage 4: current stage
Demographic changes in The Netherlands
1970 and 1980 = sexual revolution
Birth control and church had less influence, thus less children were being born.
2000’s
Women get children at a later age.
2030 (estimated)
We expect to have more people due to immigration.
Demographic changes in England and Wales after WW1
,Demographic transition
Decrease in mortality and decrease in births.
This results in increase in life expectancy and increase in population numbers.
In NL, less young people, and more older people.
And more immigrants than migrants.
Population changes are due to
• Birth
• Death
• Migration
• Immigration
- War
- Natural disasters
2019:
▪ Spain, low fertility, bad economy
▪ France, high fertility, catholic country
▪ Afrika, higher birth rates (also high adolescent birth rates)
Shift in mortality
18th century: infectious disease, famine
Early 20th century: CVD and cancer
Now: ditto, only at later age
,Determinants
Exogenous:
- Physical environment
- Lifestyle
- Social surrounding
Endogenous:
- Hereditary
- Gained (somatic/psychic)
Socio-economic status:
- Education
- Occupational class
- Income
Differences between:
- Gender, city/countryside, indigenous and immigrants
Future trends
▪ Population growth in Africa and Asia, in poor regions.
▪ Birth rates in Europe below replacement level. Ageing populations.
▪ Migration (war, famine, and climate) within Europe and to Europe.
▪ Rapid urbanisation.
China
1 child policy → 2 child policy → no policy on children
- Girls would get killed
- Not enough young people to take care of the older generation
Many elderly people, more women
Gap in 40-60 years
Few young people, more men
Covid-19 aftermath
Baby boom in NL and Germany.
But in France, Italy, and Spain there is more income uncertainty and less fertility
treatments due to reduced hospital access during a pandemic. There is also a
decrease in migrants.
,
, 2, Past and current developments
Migration
A movement of people from one administrative territory or border to another.
This can be external or internal.
Migration is primarily driven by search for better opportunities (work, health,
education, lifestyle) and preferred lifestyle elsewhere.
UN definitions:
• An international migrant who changes his or her place of usual residence
for at least one year is defined as a long-term migrant.
• A person who changes his or her place of usual residence for more than
three months but less than one year is considered to be a short-term
migrant.
Refugee
Someone who is unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a
well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality,
membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.
Historic points
The era of colonialism started in the 16th century.
Industrialisation (leading to urbanisation) took place in the 18th century.
After the world wars there was a transformation of western Europe from a region of
colonizers and emigrants to a region of immigration.
Decolonization led to the end of large-scale European emigration and to the
departure of European settlers from Africa and Asia.
There was recruitment-based and spontaneous migration to Europe.
Since the 1960’s, the Mediterranean, in particular Turkey and Morocco become
predominant sources of migrant workers in Western and Southern Europe.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, countries in central and eastern Europe
become main labour suppliers to western European economies.
Since the 2000’s, immigration from Latin America and Asia to Europe gained ground.
Understanding migration
• Change in migration patterns → seasonal vs. permanent migration
• Clandestine / illegal / unsafe migration
• Discrimination towards different groups of migrants
