WEEK 1
Lecture 1 – The public and its opinion
* What is an opinion?
* Why opinions matter so much in political science and political marketing?
What are opinions?
* Opinions are specific: moment-specific, issue-specific, person-specific
* Opinion flows, they change
* Opinions are the key element in contemporary “model” of political behaviour (i.e.,
elections, voting)
* Assumption: Opinions are so central that if I know something about your opinion, I
may also be able to predict your future behaviour
Measuring opinions allows to predict (voting) behaviors
* Opinions are that part of our mind that is more likely to be influenced by political
information
* Historically, the focus on opinions is relatively recent – before opinions, the focus
wasn’t on what people think of something but rather on individual predispositions
(how people are deep down)
* There are 3 subsequent models of (political) behaviour:
1. Rational models
2. Socio0logical models
3. Socio-psychological model
These models try to link who individuals are to understand what they do
Rational (economic) models
The central element of this model is individual preferences. The idea is that people act like
customers. That is, our behaviour can be simply explained as the maximization of our
preferences (Homo oeconomicus) even though it’s full information, but it’s a little
simplified phycology
Sociological model (or Colombia model)
1
, For the first time this model expanded to include the influencing effect of political
information. This model tried to prove that political propaganda works à- that is, that people
can be influenced
Proved the historical importance of political persuasion
Proving that individuals do not always act rationally, but sometimes they are persuaded
to behave differently
Studies tried to prove that propaganda worked – however, many studies didn’t do this. They
proved that behaviors are quite stable hence reaffirming the importance of preferences.
Key factor: individual values:
* Social class (socio-economic level)
* Religious affiliation (and religiosity)
* Residence (urban and rural)
This is why it’s called sociological model (from sociology): that is, the environment
in where you live shapes you and your values
So if preferences (values) are stable in time, how do we explain fluctuation in voting choices
(aggregated, individual)? This is why our mind is made up of 2 components. Thjs is why
there is the need for a more encompassing model that takes into account both components:
1. Preferences: the “stable” component which explains the long term effects
2. Opinions: the “fluctuating” component which explains shot term effects
There is a third point that is, the effects of a changing context.
Socio-psychological model (Michigan model)
This model ads a psychological perspective to the model to understand fluctuation. This
model builds on the premises of the Colombia model importance of stable preferences to
shape behaviour
Basically, this models ads a psychological perspective to account for short-term
fluctuations not thinking where people stand politically, but rather what they are
thinking right now
This model says to focus on 3 “behavioural dispositions”:
1. Values – deep in your mind, they determine who you are (stable)
2
Lecture 1 – The public and its opinion
* What is an opinion?
* Why opinions matter so much in political science and political marketing?
What are opinions?
* Opinions are specific: moment-specific, issue-specific, person-specific
* Opinion flows, they change
* Opinions are the key element in contemporary “model” of political behaviour (i.e.,
elections, voting)
* Assumption: Opinions are so central that if I know something about your opinion, I
may also be able to predict your future behaviour
Measuring opinions allows to predict (voting) behaviors
* Opinions are that part of our mind that is more likely to be influenced by political
information
* Historically, the focus on opinions is relatively recent – before opinions, the focus
wasn’t on what people think of something but rather on individual predispositions
(how people are deep down)
* There are 3 subsequent models of (political) behaviour:
1. Rational models
2. Socio0logical models
3. Socio-psychological model
These models try to link who individuals are to understand what they do
Rational (economic) models
The central element of this model is individual preferences. The idea is that people act like
customers. That is, our behaviour can be simply explained as the maximization of our
preferences (Homo oeconomicus) even though it’s full information, but it’s a little
simplified phycology
Sociological model (or Colombia model)
1
, For the first time this model expanded to include the influencing effect of political
information. This model tried to prove that political propaganda works à- that is, that people
can be influenced
Proved the historical importance of political persuasion
Proving that individuals do not always act rationally, but sometimes they are persuaded
to behave differently
Studies tried to prove that propaganda worked – however, many studies didn’t do this. They
proved that behaviors are quite stable hence reaffirming the importance of preferences.
Key factor: individual values:
* Social class (socio-economic level)
* Religious affiliation (and religiosity)
* Residence (urban and rural)
This is why it’s called sociological model (from sociology): that is, the environment
in where you live shapes you and your values
So if preferences (values) are stable in time, how do we explain fluctuation in voting choices
(aggregated, individual)? This is why our mind is made up of 2 components. Thjs is why
there is the need for a more encompassing model that takes into account both components:
1. Preferences: the “stable” component which explains the long term effects
2. Opinions: the “fluctuating” component which explains shot term effects
There is a third point that is, the effects of a changing context.
Socio-psychological model (Michigan model)
This model ads a psychological perspective to the model to understand fluctuation. This
model builds on the premises of the Colombia model importance of stable preferences to
shape behaviour
Basically, this models ads a psychological perspective to account for short-term
fluctuations not thinking where people stand politically, but rather what they are
thinking right now
This model says to focus on 3 “behavioural dispositions”:
1. Values – deep in your mind, they determine who you are (stable)
2
