Politieke actoren en gedrag
,Inhoud
1 Les 1: Menselijk gedrag verklaren.......................................................................................................7
1.1 Inleiding tot de politieke psychologie...........................................................................................7
1.1.1 Individuele factoren..............................................................................................................7
1.1.2 Vorming van politiek gedrag in groep...................................................................................9
1.1.3 Vorming van politiek gedrag door de context.....................................................................10
2 Stemgedrag-Deel 1: Focus op Kiezer.................................................................................................11
2.1 Introductie.................................................................................................................................11
2.2 Sociale positie- Columbia School (1)..........................................................................................11
2.2.1 Introductie..........................................................................................................................11
Deze theorie is gemiddeld wat wil zeggen dat we hiermee niet volledig zijn stemgedrag kunnen
verklaren. Wel is dit relatief gezien een belangrijke factor...........................................................11
2.2.2 De grondslagen in de literatuur...........................................................................................11
2.2.3 De Nieuwe breuklijnen........................................................................................................12
2.2.4 Meest geschreven over: Sociale Klasse en religie (oude breuklijnen).................................13
2.2.5 Andere factoren..................................................................................................................14
2.3 Dealignment (of ontkoppeling)..................................................................................................15
2.3.2 Conclusie.............................................................................................................................16
2.4 Partij identificatie- Michigan school (2)......................................................................................17
2.4.1 Nieuw model.......................................................................................................................17
2.6 Ideologie en Issues (3)...............................................................................................................19
2.6.1 Proximity model of voting (Downs) afgeleid van de “Rational choice” traditie ..................20
2.6.2 Ideologische zelfplaatsing...................................................................................................20
2.6.3 Meting ideologie.................................................................................................................21
2.6.4 Uni- naar multi-dimensioneel.............................................................................................21
2.6.5 Link ideologie en attitudes..................................................................................................23
2.6.6 Wat is het grootste verschil tussen de Michigan school en het idee van proximity voting? 24
2.6.7 Kritiek op Rational Choice/ Rol ideologie?..........................................................................24
2.6.8 Kritiek op Downs.................................................................................................................24
2.6.9 Dus issues….........................................................................................................................25
2.7 Economische toestand: Economic voting (4)..............................................................................25
2.7.2 Conclusie “the economic vote”...........................................................................................26
2.8 Imago/kwaliteiten van de kandidaat (5)....................................................................................27
2.8.1 Wetenschappelijke eensgezindheid over:...........................................................................27
2.8.2 Conclusie Leiders/Media.....................................................................................................28
, 2.9 Strategische overwegingen (6)...................................................................................................28
2.9.1 Rol van peilingen.................................................................................................................29
2.9.2 Waar komt strategisch stemmen meer voor? First Past The Post systems (FPTP) t.o.v.
Proportional Representation kiesstelsel (PR)...............................................................................29
2.10 Andere elementen+ Toepassing (7)..........................................................................................30
2.10.1 “Affective turn”: Emoties en politiek.................................................................................30
2.10.2 Different research cases....................................................................................................31
2.10.3 Rol van negatieve emoties (angst en woede)....................................................................31
2.11 Stemgedrag verklaren..............................................................................................................32
2.12 Conclusie..................................................................................................................................32
2.12.1 Doorheen de tijd ontstonden 3 grote theorieën...............................................................32
2.12.2 Evoluties............................................................................................................................33
2.12.3 2 verschillende perspectieven...........................................................................................33
2.12.4 Grafische schets................................................................................................................34
3 Politieke partijen en standpuntbepaling...........................................................................................35
3.1.1 introductie..........................................................................................................................35
3.2 Formele theorie over partijstandpunten....................................................................................36
3.2.1 Basis= economic theory of democracy (Downs, 1957)........................................................36
3.2.2 Wet van Hotelling (Game theory).......................................................................................36
3.2.3 Kritiek op spatial modelling:................................................................................................38
3.3 Van positie naar issue Conflict
...................................................................................................39
3.3.1 Strijd om de definitie van het dominante conflict...............................................................39
3.3.2 Boodschap van Schattschneider..........................................................................................40
3.3.3 Partijcompetitie & “The conflict of conflicts”......................................................................40
3.3.4 Is issue-ownership stabiel of kan je het stelen?..................................................................42
3.3.5 Dimensies issue ownership.................................................................................................43
3.4 Case study: Reactie sociaal-democratische partijen op populistisch radicaal-rechtse partijen. .44
3.4.1 Strategieën mainstream partijen........................................................................................44
3.4.2 Inzoomen op Denemarken..................................................................................................45
4 Politieke leiders (Politici en leiderschap)...........................................................................................46
4.1 Persoonlijkheid en leiderschap..................................................................................................46
4.1.1 Definitie persoonlijkheid.....................................................................................................46
4.1.2 Personalisering....................................................................................................................47
4.1.3 Onderlinge relaties..............................................................................................................47
4.1.4 Persoonlijkheid (van de leider) in context bekijken.............................................................47
4.1.5 Politieke psychologie (impersonal
history)..........................................................................48
, 4.1.6 Charisma: Charismatisch leiderschap..................................................................................49
4.2 Benaderingen en theorieën.......................................................................................................51
4.2.1 Psychoanalyse (1)................................................................................................................51
4.2.2 Psycho-biografieën (2)........................................................................................................51
4.2.3 Psychopathologie (3)...........................................................................................................52
4.2.4 Kenmerktheorieën (4).........................................................................................................52
4.2.5 Motivatietheoriën (5)..........................................................................................................53
4.3 Leiderschap en achtergrondkenmerken.....................................................................................54
4.4 Leiders in crisis situaties.............................................................................................................55
4.4.1 Definitie en Belang..............................................................................................................55
4.4.2 Stress management theorie................................................................................................55
4.4.3 Gevolgen van stress............................................................................................................56
4.4.4 Gevaar= Groupthink (Janis, 1972).......................................................................................56
5 Coalitievorming en ministers............................................................................................................58
5.1 Introductie.................................................................................................................................58
5.2 Politieke wetenschap en coalitievorming...................................................................................58
5.3 Deel 1: Welke factoren voorspellen of een coalitie tot stand komt (verklaringen)?...................59
5.3.1 Factor 1: Grootte/ Size van coalities als verklaring (a priori, policy blind)...........................59
5.3.2 Factor 2: Policy (ook policiy als criterium)...........................................................................60
5.3.3 Balans van “Size & ideology” modellen...............................................................................62
5.3.4 Factor 3: De rol van instituties (geïntroduceerd in de jaren 80)..........................................63
5.3.5 Balans van ‘institutionele’ modellen...................................................................................65
5.3.6 Recente studies (’00): Nieuwe inzichten.............................................................................65
5.4 Case: België – Waarom regeringsonderhandelingen in BE moeilijk zijn.....................................66
5.4.1 Inleiding contect.................................................................................................................66
5.4.2 Factoren die een verklaring bieden.....................................................................................66
5.5 Deel 2: Verklaren en voorspellen van ministerportfolio’s...........................................................67
5.5.1 Vraag 1: Hoeveel portfolio’s krijgt elke coalitiepartner? (Kwantitatief)...............................67
5.5.2 Vraag 2: Welke protfolio’s krijgt elke coalitiepartner? (Kwalitatief).....................................68
5.6 Belangrijke bijkomende informatie............................................................................................70
5.6.1 Minderheidsregering...........................................................................................................70
5.6.2 De regeringsvorming in BE..................................................................................................70
6 Politieke polarisatie...........................................................................................................................72
6.1 Introductie: Een historisch perspectief op polarisatie................................................................72
6.2 Ideologische polarisatie.............................................................................................................72
6.2.1 Start onderzoek: Ideologische polarisatie tussen elites in de VS.........................................72
,Inhoud
1 Les 1: Menselijk gedrag verklaren.......................................................................................................7
1.1 Inleiding tot de politieke psychologie...........................................................................................7
1.1.1 Individuele factoren..............................................................................................................7
1.1.2 Vorming van politiek gedrag in groep...................................................................................9
1.1.3 Vorming van politiek gedrag door de context.....................................................................10
2 Stemgedrag-Deel 1: Focus op Kiezer.................................................................................................11
2.1 Introductie.................................................................................................................................11
2.2 Sociale positie- Columbia School (1)..........................................................................................11
2.2.1 Introductie..........................................................................................................................11
Deze theorie is gemiddeld wat wil zeggen dat we hiermee niet volledig zijn stemgedrag kunnen
verklaren. Wel is dit relatief gezien een belangrijke factor...........................................................11
2.2.2 De grondslagen in de literatuur...........................................................................................11
2.2.3 De Nieuwe breuklijnen........................................................................................................12
2.2.4 Meest geschreven over: Sociale Klasse en religie (oude breuklijnen).................................13
2.2.5 Andere factoren..................................................................................................................14
2.3 Dealignment (of ontkoppeling)..................................................................................................15
2.3.2 Conclusie.............................................................................................................................16
2.4 Partij identificatie- Michigan school (2)......................................................................................17
2.4.1 Nieuw model.......................................................................................................................17
2.6 Ideologie en Issues (3)...............................................................................................................19
2.6.1 Proximity model of voting (Downs) afgeleid van de “Rational choice” traditie ..................20
2.6.2 Ideologische zelfplaatsing...................................................................................................20
2.6.3 Meting ideologie.................................................................................................................21
2.6.4 Uni- naar multi-dimensioneel.............................................................................................21
2.6.5 Link ideologie en attitudes..................................................................................................23
2.6.6 Wat is het grootste verschil tussen de Michigan school en het idee van proximity voting? 24
2.6.7 Kritiek op Rational Choice/ Rol ideologie?..........................................................................24
2.6.8 Kritiek op Downs.................................................................................................................24
2.6.9 Dus issues….........................................................................................................................25
2.7 Economische toestand: Economic voting (4)..............................................................................25
2.7.2 Conclusie “the economic vote”...........................................................................................26
2.8 Imago/kwaliteiten van de kandidaat (5)....................................................................................27
2.8.1 Wetenschappelijke eensgezindheid over:...........................................................................27
2.8.2 Conclusie Leiders/Media.....................................................................................................28
, 2.9 Strategische overwegingen (6)...................................................................................................28
2.9.1 Rol van peilingen.................................................................................................................29
2.9.2 Waar komt strategisch stemmen meer voor? First Past The Post systems (FPTP) t.o.v.
Proportional Representation kiesstelsel (PR)...............................................................................29
2.10 Andere elementen+ Toepassing (7)..........................................................................................30
2.10.1 “Affective turn”: Emoties en politiek.................................................................................30
2.10.2 Different research cases....................................................................................................31
2.10.3 Rol van negatieve emoties (angst en woede)....................................................................31
2.11 Stemgedrag verklaren..............................................................................................................32
2.12 Conclusie..................................................................................................................................32
2.12.1 Doorheen de tijd ontstonden 3 grote theorieën...............................................................32
2.12.2 Evoluties............................................................................................................................33
2.12.3 2 verschillende perspectieven...........................................................................................33
2.12.4 Grafische schets................................................................................................................34
3 Politieke partijen en standpuntbepaling...........................................................................................35
3.1.1 introductie..........................................................................................................................35
3.2 Formele theorie over partijstandpunten....................................................................................36
3.2.1 Basis= economic theory of democracy (Downs, 1957)........................................................36
3.2.2 Wet van Hotelling (Game theory).......................................................................................36
3.2.3 Kritiek op spatial modelling:................................................................................................38
3.3 Van positie naar issue Conflict
...................................................................................................39
3.3.1 Strijd om de definitie van het dominante conflict...............................................................39
3.3.2 Boodschap van Schattschneider..........................................................................................40
3.3.3 Partijcompetitie & “The conflict of conflicts”......................................................................40
3.3.4 Is issue-ownership stabiel of kan je het stelen?..................................................................42
3.3.5 Dimensies issue ownership.................................................................................................43
3.4 Case study: Reactie sociaal-democratische partijen op populistisch radicaal-rechtse partijen. .44
3.4.1 Strategieën mainstream partijen........................................................................................44
3.4.2 Inzoomen op Denemarken..................................................................................................45
4 Politieke leiders (Politici en leiderschap)...........................................................................................46
4.1 Persoonlijkheid en leiderschap..................................................................................................46
4.1.1 Definitie persoonlijkheid.....................................................................................................46
4.1.2 Personalisering....................................................................................................................47
4.1.3 Onderlinge relaties..............................................................................................................47
4.1.4 Persoonlijkheid (van de leider) in context bekijken.............................................................47
4.1.5 Politieke psychologie (impersonal
history)..........................................................................48
, 4.1.6 Charisma: Charismatisch leiderschap..................................................................................49
4.2 Benaderingen en theorieën.......................................................................................................51
4.2.1 Psychoanalyse (1)................................................................................................................51
4.2.2 Psycho-biografieën (2)........................................................................................................51
4.2.3 Psychopathologie (3)...........................................................................................................52
4.2.4 Kenmerktheorieën (4).........................................................................................................52
4.2.5 Motivatietheoriën (5)..........................................................................................................53
4.3 Leiderschap en achtergrondkenmerken.....................................................................................54
4.4 Leiders in crisis situaties.............................................................................................................55
4.4.1 Definitie en Belang..............................................................................................................55
4.4.2 Stress management theorie................................................................................................55
4.4.3 Gevolgen van stress............................................................................................................56
4.4.4 Gevaar= Groupthink (Janis, 1972).......................................................................................56
5 Coalitievorming en ministers............................................................................................................58
5.1 Introductie.................................................................................................................................58
5.2 Politieke wetenschap en coalitievorming...................................................................................58
5.3 Deel 1: Welke factoren voorspellen of een coalitie tot stand komt (verklaringen)?...................59
5.3.1 Factor 1: Grootte/ Size van coalities als verklaring (a priori, policy blind)...........................59
5.3.2 Factor 2: Policy (ook policiy als criterium)...........................................................................60
5.3.3 Balans van “Size & ideology” modellen...............................................................................62
5.3.4 Factor 3: De rol van instituties (geïntroduceerd in de jaren 80)..........................................63
5.3.5 Balans van ‘institutionele’ modellen...................................................................................65
5.3.6 Recente studies (’00): Nieuwe inzichten.............................................................................65
5.4 Case: België – Waarom regeringsonderhandelingen in BE moeilijk zijn.....................................66
5.4.1 Inleiding contect.................................................................................................................66
5.4.2 Factoren die een verklaring bieden.....................................................................................66
5.5 Deel 2: Verklaren en voorspellen van ministerportfolio’s...........................................................67
5.5.1 Vraag 1: Hoeveel portfolio’s krijgt elke coalitiepartner? (Kwantitatief)...............................67
5.5.2 Vraag 2: Welke protfolio’s krijgt elke coalitiepartner? (Kwalitatief).....................................68
5.6 Belangrijke bijkomende informatie............................................................................................70
5.6.1 Minderheidsregering...........................................................................................................70
5.6.2 De regeringsvorming in BE..................................................................................................70
6 Politieke polarisatie...........................................................................................................................72
6.1 Introductie: Een historisch perspectief op polarisatie................................................................72
6.2 Ideologische polarisatie.............................................................................................................72
6.2.1 Start onderzoek: Ideologische polarisatie tussen elites in de VS.........................................72
