INVESTMENT ANALYSIS AND
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
, Goals:
− Know how to invest directly and indirectly
− Understand pricing principles on financial markets (how can we determine price and (expected) return and
risk of a financial asset?)
− Understand how to construct portfolios
− Be able to evaluate investments (strategies)
Page | 1
Why study investments?
− Most individuals make investment decision sometimes:
o Need sound framework for managing and increasing wealth
o Retirement decisions: importance of making good decisions
Effect of compounding:
The total return is a combination of the return of
the amount you invested and the return of the
return from the previous year
If we invest for double the time the return will multiply by 3,65 ➔ Capital will increase more when
the period is longer
If the return triples, the return will multiply by 14,73 ➔ More risk leads to a higher return
− Essential part of a career in the field:
o Security analyst and portfolio manager
o Stockbrokers and financial advisors/planners
o Chartered financial analyst → type of certificate you can get to be considered a professional in the sector
,1. INTRODUCTION: GENERAL CONCEPTS
AND INVESTMENT PROCESS
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Page | 2
Some recent trends:
- Stock market and government/corporate bond market: returns in Euro over last years and last 5 years
Stocks worldwide have the best return on 5
years. Bonds on a 5 year period have a
negative return in 2022.
When interest rates go up then bond prices
will go down.
Over a period of 1 year, the stock prices
don’t have a very strong return. Bond
returns on a period of 1 year is very negative, because central banks have increased the interest rates.
It’s best to invest for a longer period of time.
- Stock markets worldwide: returns (based on MSCI return index in Euro)
The US has had a very strong positive return. This
means that the performance of the world was
mostly powered by the US.
Eurozone has not been doing so well. This can be
explained by the energy crisis. The performance over
the year 2022 is strongly negative.
When investing in stocks, it’s best to look into
the region you’d invest in.
- Return per sector (based on MSCI return index in Euro)
If the economy is performing well, then the
cyclical sectors are usually performing well.
(cyclical sectors = communication, information
technology, cyclical consumer goods)
The defensive sectors have been doing very well.
These are the sectors who will always be
important, for example health care. This is
reflected in the stock return.
Cyclical sectors have a more volatile return, so they have a higher chance of a higher return over a longer period.
- S&P GSCI Gold Index
Gold has a higher return in periods of uncertainty. Investors see it as some
sort of safe haven.
But we see that currently gold most likely is no longer a safe haven. There’s
no explanation yet.
When looking at other commodities, we see that energy, agriculture and
livestock have been doing well. Metals have not.
Commodities are good to diversify, because they behave differently
than stocks and bonds.
, - Government bond yields (maturity 10 year)
Have been increasing over the last year, this is because the central banks have
been increasing the interest rate.
The interest rate is reflected in the bond yields. This also means that the bond
prices are going down.
Page | 3 We see differences between countries, for example Germany and Italy.
Germany has a low yield, because they are very “safe”. You will almost
certainly get your money back, low risk.
Why was the yield of Germany negative?
→ The ECB buys the bonds, so the price goes up and the yield goes down.
→ They have a good credit rating, so low interest rates and low yield.
→ Covid-19 made the stock market very uncertain, so people go looking for safe havens. So a lot of people were buying
the German bonds, the price goes up and the yield goes down.
→ Inflation was very low, then you accept a low return. When inflation is low you lose purchasing power, so you want
to counter this.
- Bond returns for different categories
When you expect that interest rates will go up, then you should expect the
bond return to drop.
- US real estate has performed well from a historical perspective, but …
Over 20 years the return of real estate was significantly higher
than the return of the stock market. So historically is was good to
invest in real estate.
But during the last few years
the stock market has
outperformed the real
estate market.
- Bitcoins
The upward potential during the beginning of Covid was very high.
But it’s also very volatile. So you should be willing to take the risk,
it’s difficult to understand what drives the prices of bitcoin.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
, Goals:
− Know how to invest directly and indirectly
− Understand pricing principles on financial markets (how can we determine price and (expected) return and
risk of a financial asset?)
− Understand how to construct portfolios
− Be able to evaluate investments (strategies)
Page | 1
Why study investments?
− Most individuals make investment decision sometimes:
o Need sound framework for managing and increasing wealth
o Retirement decisions: importance of making good decisions
Effect of compounding:
The total return is a combination of the return of
the amount you invested and the return of the
return from the previous year
If we invest for double the time the return will multiply by 3,65 ➔ Capital will increase more when
the period is longer
If the return triples, the return will multiply by 14,73 ➔ More risk leads to a higher return
− Essential part of a career in the field:
o Security analyst and portfolio manager
o Stockbrokers and financial advisors/planners
o Chartered financial analyst → type of certificate you can get to be considered a professional in the sector
,1. INTRODUCTION: GENERAL CONCEPTS
AND INVESTMENT PROCESS
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Page | 2
Some recent trends:
- Stock market and government/corporate bond market: returns in Euro over last years and last 5 years
Stocks worldwide have the best return on 5
years. Bonds on a 5 year period have a
negative return in 2022.
When interest rates go up then bond prices
will go down.
Over a period of 1 year, the stock prices
don’t have a very strong return. Bond
returns on a period of 1 year is very negative, because central banks have increased the interest rates.
It’s best to invest for a longer period of time.
- Stock markets worldwide: returns (based on MSCI return index in Euro)
The US has had a very strong positive return. This
means that the performance of the world was
mostly powered by the US.
Eurozone has not been doing so well. This can be
explained by the energy crisis. The performance over
the year 2022 is strongly negative.
When investing in stocks, it’s best to look into
the region you’d invest in.
- Return per sector (based on MSCI return index in Euro)
If the economy is performing well, then the
cyclical sectors are usually performing well.
(cyclical sectors = communication, information
technology, cyclical consumer goods)
The defensive sectors have been doing very well.
These are the sectors who will always be
important, for example health care. This is
reflected in the stock return.
Cyclical sectors have a more volatile return, so they have a higher chance of a higher return over a longer period.
- S&P GSCI Gold Index
Gold has a higher return in periods of uncertainty. Investors see it as some
sort of safe haven.
But we see that currently gold most likely is no longer a safe haven. There’s
no explanation yet.
When looking at other commodities, we see that energy, agriculture and
livestock have been doing well. Metals have not.
Commodities are good to diversify, because they behave differently
than stocks and bonds.
, - Government bond yields (maturity 10 year)
Have been increasing over the last year, this is because the central banks have
been increasing the interest rate.
The interest rate is reflected in the bond yields. This also means that the bond
prices are going down.
Page | 3 We see differences between countries, for example Germany and Italy.
Germany has a low yield, because they are very “safe”. You will almost
certainly get your money back, low risk.
Why was the yield of Germany negative?
→ The ECB buys the bonds, so the price goes up and the yield goes down.
→ They have a good credit rating, so low interest rates and low yield.
→ Covid-19 made the stock market very uncertain, so people go looking for safe havens. So a lot of people were buying
the German bonds, the price goes up and the yield goes down.
→ Inflation was very low, then you accept a low return. When inflation is low you lose purchasing power, so you want
to counter this.
- Bond returns for different categories
When you expect that interest rates will go up, then you should expect the
bond return to drop.
- US real estate has performed well from a historical perspective, but …
Over 20 years the return of real estate was significantly higher
than the return of the stock market. So historically is was good to
invest in real estate.
But during the last few years
the stock market has
outperformed the real
estate market.
- Bitcoins
The upward potential during the beginning of Covid was very high.
But it’s also very volatile. So you should be willing to take the risk,
it’s difficult to understand what drives the prices of bitcoin.
