Social demography
➔ Voor examen: zie eerste PPT van semester (uitleg examen)
Introduction: demographic challenges in Europe
Why demography?
What is:
- Scientific study of (human) population
- Mathematics study = quantitative → now = mixed methods
- Intertwined with other disciplines (sociology, economics, …)
Study:
1. Understanding how demography shapes society
➢ Modern society = shaped and affected by changers in size and structure
➢ Ex. Childcare, labour markets, school systems, migration policies, …
2. Demography drives our future
➢ Dynamics = determined by current structure of the population and change
➢ Populations = long-term memory (80-100 years)
3. The physics of social sciences
➢ Use of methods = pervasive in other disciplines
Demographic trends in Europe
Europe’s second demographic transition
Partnership formation & dissolution: (marriage)
- Reversal of trends established 1880-1960
➢ Rise in age of first marriage
• Later home leaving, premarital cohabitation, single living, …
➢ Fall in proportions married
➢ Rise in cohabitation (pre- and postmarital)
• Revenge of history, subsequent diffusion, …
➢ Rise in divorce (earlier)
➢ Decline of remarriage following divorce and widowhood
Crude Marriage rate (CMR)
- = relative frequency of particular events within the population in specific period
-
- Problems: tempo of marriages, age of population, sex of population, …
- Demographic indicators:
, ➢ Total first marriage rate
• Probability of first marriage
• Rate ≈ synthetic male or female cohort
• Summation of age-specific first marriages rates observed in given year
• Indicator > 1.00 (strong progression = inflation deflation = postponing)
➢ Mean age at female first marriage
• Summarize age-specific rates by addition
• Mean age = table for year n = weighted mean of different ages
•
➢ Problems: interpretation of demographic indicators
Changing nuptiality patters:
- CMR = decline in all regions between 1960-2020
- Decline of marriage = postponement of marriage → deflation
- Number of marriages ≈ age structure of the population as first marriages
- Analysis = understand change in patterns of union formation + union dissolution
➢ Shift in timing (tempo component) + shift in number (quantum component)
Crude divorce rates (CDR):
- = relative of particular events within the population as a whole in a specific period
-
- Problem: number of divorces number of marriages at first
- Trends ≈ demographic indicators:
➢ Crude rates = increased → instability and diversification
➢ Regional variation ≈ age structure, number of marriages, …
➢ Understanding → distinguishing timing (tempo) and number (quantum)
,Fertility numbers:
- Fertility = actual reproductive performance fecundity = psychological capability to produce
- Fertility:
➢ Sexual and contraceptive revolution
• Sex = disconnected from marriage + elimination of parity failures (abortion)
➢ Rapid postponement of fertility (increasing mean age at parenthood)
➢ Structural subreplacement fertility (average = 1.3 child)
• Rising definitive childlessness
➢ Rising extra-marital fertility (cohabition parenthood, …)
- Crude birth rate (CBR)
➢
➢
- Mean age at childbearing: consideration of all birthorders and distribution
➢
➢ Problems:
• More children = older age
• Parity (amount of children) + failure (unintentional) → less 3th and 4th children
• Less children = younger age → decline of mean age
- Changing fertility patterns:
➢ CBR = declines in all regions
➢ Decline of fertility ≈ postponement of childbearing
➢ Differ by birth-order, number of births, distribution of births, … (tempo and quantum)
, The epidemiological transition
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy:
- Epidemiologic transition: major shift in distribution in causes of death
- Latter part (20th century) = delay of degenerative death
➢ Advances in technology, health care policies at chronic diseases, reduction of risks, …
- Further rectangularization of survival function and increases in life expectancy
➢ Grafiek age – proportion surviving = 90° corner
- Persisting socio-economic differentials = health + mortality
Crude death Rate (CDR) = simple indicator
- Hbhb
-
Life expectancy at birth: e0
- Life table: age-specific mortality rates mx, given a year, conditional probabilities of dying, …
- → (1-qx) = probability of surviving between ages x and X+1
- Hypothetical cohort = size l0 = Lx = alive at age x ≈
- Total number of person-years lived:
- Average number of person-years lived:
Changing mortality patterns:
- Life expectancy = increased → reduction of old age mortality
- Life expectancy + healty life expectancy = subject to socio-economic gradients
- Crude death rates = not adequately reflect decline of mortality
➔ Voor examen: zie eerste PPT van semester (uitleg examen)
Introduction: demographic challenges in Europe
Why demography?
What is:
- Scientific study of (human) population
- Mathematics study = quantitative → now = mixed methods
- Intertwined with other disciplines (sociology, economics, …)
Study:
1. Understanding how demography shapes society
➢ Modern society = shaped and affected by changers in size and structure
➢ Ex. Childcare, labour markets, school systems, migration policies, …
2. Demography drives our future
➢ Dynamics = determined by current structure of the population and change
➢ Populations = long-term memory (80-100 years)
3. The physics of social sciences
➢ Use of methods = pervasive in other disciplines
Demographic trends in Europe
Europe’s second demographic transition
Partnership formation & dissolution: (marriage)
- Reversal of trends established 1880-1960
➢ Rise in age of first marriage
• Later home leaving, premarital cohabitation, single living, …
➢ Fall in proportions married
➢ Rise in cohabitation (pre- and postmarital)
• Revenge of history, subsequent diffusion, …
➢ Rise in divorce (earlier)
➢ Decline of remarriage following divorce and widowhood
Crude Marriage rate (CMR)
- = relative frequency of particular events within the population in specific period
-
- Problems: tempo of marriages, age of population, sex of population, …
- Demographic indicators:
, ➢ Total first marriage rate
• Probability of first marriage
• Rate ≈ synthetic male or female cohort
• Summation of age-specific first marriages rates observed in given year
• Indicator > 1.00 (strong progression = inflation deflation = postponing)
➢ Mean age at female first marriage
• Summarize age-specific rates by addition
• Mean age = table for year n = weighted mean of different ages
•
➢ Problems: interpretation of demographic indicators
Changing nuptiality patters:
- CMR = decline in all regions between 1960-2020
- Decline of marriage = postponement of marriage → deflation
- Number of marriages ≈ age structure of the population as first marriages
- Analysis = understand change in patterns of union formation + union dissolution
➢ Shift in timing (tempo component) + shift in number (quantum component)
Crude divorce rates (CDR):
- = relative of particular events within the population as a whole in a specific period
-
- Problem: number of divorces number of marriages at first
- Trends ≈ demographic indicators:
➢ Crude rates = increased → instability and diversification
➢ Regional variation ≈ age structure, number of marriages, …
➢ Understanding → distinguishing timing (tempo) and number (quantum)
,Fertility numbers:
- Fertility = actual reproductive performance fecundity = psychological capability to produce
- Fertility:
➢ Sexual and contraceptive revolution
• Sex = disconnected from marriage + elimination of parity failures (abortion)
➢ Rapid postponement of fertility (increasing mean age at parenthood)
➢ Structural subreplacement fertility (average = 1.3 child)
• Rising definitive childlessness
➢ Rising extra-marital fertility (cohabition parenthood, …)
- Crude birth rate (CBR)
➢
➢
- Mean age at childbearing: consideration of all birthorders and distribution
➢
➢ Problems:
• More children = older age
• Parity (amount of children) + failure (unintentional) → less 3th and 4th children
• Less children = younger age → decline of mean age
- Changing fertility patterns:
➢ CBR = declines in all regions
➢ Decline of fertility ≈ postponement of childbearing
➢ Differ by birth-order, number of births, distribution of births, … (tempo and quantum)
, The epidemiological transition
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy:
- Epidemiologic transition: major shift in distribution in causes of death
- Latter part (20th century) = delay of degenerative death
➢ Advances in technology, health care policies at chronic diseases, reduction of risks, …
- Further rectangularization of survival function and increases in life expectancy
➢ Grafiek age – proportion surviving = 90° corner
- Persisting socio-economic differentials = health + mortality
Crude death Rate (CDR) = simple indicator
- Hbhb
-
Life expectancy at birth: e0
- Life table: age-specific mortality rates mx, given a year, conditional probabilities of dying, …
- → (1-qx) = probability of surviving between ages x and X+1
- Hypothetical cohort = size l0 = Lx = alive at age x ≈
- Total number of person-years lived:
- Average number of person-years lived:
Changing mortality patterns:
- Life expectancy = increased → reduction of old age mortality
- Life expectancy + healty life expectancy = subject to socio-economic gradients
- Crude death rates = not adequately reflect decline of mortality
