• Hindsight bias: the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have
foreseen it. (Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon.)
“Tell the first group, for example: “Psychologists have found that separation weakens romantic
attraction. As the saying goes, ‘Out of sight, out of mind.’” Ask them to imagine why this might
be true. Most people can, and after hearing an explanation, nearly all will then view this true
finding as unsurprising.
“All effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in
slogans.” — Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, 1926
“Those who trust in their own wits are fools.” — Proverbs 28:26
“Life is lived forwards, but understood backwards.” — Philosopher Søren Kierkegaard, 1813–
1855
Tell the second group the opposite: “Psychologists have found that separation strengthens
romantic attraction. As the saying goes, ‘Absence makes the heart grow fonder.’” People given
this untrue result can also easily imagine it, and most will also see it as unsurprising. When
opposite findings both seem like common sense, there is a problem.”
• Overconfidence: tend to think we know more than we do.
“Consider these three anagrams, shown beside their solutions (from Goranson, 1978):
WREAT → WATER ETRYN → ENTRY GRABE → BARGE
About how many seconds do you think it would have taken you to unscramble each of these?
Did hindsight influence you? Knowing the answers tends to make us overconfident. (Surely the
solution would take only 10 seconds or so?) In reality, the average problem solver spends 3
minutes”
foreseen it. (Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon.)
“Tell the first group, for example: “Psychologists have found that separation weakens romantic
attraction. As the saying goes, ‘Out of sight, out of mind.’” Ask them to imagine why this might
be true. Most people can, and after hearing an explanation, nearly all will then view this true
finding as unsurprising.
“All effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in
slogans.” — Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, 1926
“Those who trust in their own wits are fools.” — Proverbs 28:26
“Life is lived forwards, but understood backwards.” — Philosopher Søren Kierkegaard, 1813–
1855
Tell the second group the opposite: “Psychologists have found that separation strengthens
romantic attraction. As the saying goes, ‘Absence makes the heart grow fonder.’” People given
this untrue result can also easily imagine it, and most will also see it as unsurprising. When
opposite findings both seem like common sense, there is a problem.”
• Overconfidence: tend to think we know more than we do.
“Consider these three anagrams, shown beside their solutions (from Goranson, 1978):
WREAT → WATER ETRYN → ENTRY GRABE → BARGE
About how many seconds do you think it would have taken you to unscramble each of these?
Did hindsight influence you? Knowing the answers tends to make us overconfident. (Surely the
solution would take only 10 seconds or so?) In reality, the average problem solver spends 3
minutes”
