AP Psychology Unit 2: Test #3
4-1 Review: How do hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the tendency to perceive order in random
events illustrate why science-based answers are more valid than those based on common sense? -
✅-Hindsight bias (the I knew it all along phenomenon) is the tendency to believe, after learning
an outcome, that we would have foreseen it.
-Overconfidence in our judgments results partly from our bias to seek information that confirms
them.
-These tendencies, along with our eagerness to perceive patterns in random events, lead us to
overestimate the weight of commonsense thinking. Although limited by the testable questions it can
address, scientific inquiry can help us overcome such biases and shortcomings.
After the student council election, a friend tells you he could have guessed who would be elected
president. What psychological phenomenon might this illustrate? -
✅Hindsight bias
While taking a standardized test with randomly scrambled answers, you notice that your last four
answers have been "c." Which of the following is true concerning the probability of the next answer
being "c"? -
✅It is unaffected by previous answers. It is as likely to be "c" as any there answer.
The tendency to exaggerate the correctness or accuracy of our beliefs and predictions is called -
✅Overconfidence
Which of the following is an example of hindsight bias? -
✅Alliyah, after reading a definition on one of her flashcards, turns the card over to see the term,
and then tells herself she knew what the answer was all along.
**Practice FRQ:
Elena won the lottery last night. Afterward, she told her friends that she knew she was going to win.
Her friends think that she is so lucky because she won the lottery last year as well. Explain how
hindsight bias and the tendency to perceive patterns in random events apply to Elena's winnings. -
✅-Hindsight bias: Elena knew today that she would win the lottery bc she did. If she hadn't won,
she would not remember the "feeling" that she would win.
1|Page
,-Pattern in random events: Elena's winnings are unconnected. The odds of winning make it seem like
a person is "lucky" if they win, but the odds of winning the lottery twice are not that unrealistic when
odds of winning are spread out across an entire population.
A local basketball team has won three championships in a row and is on a winning streak going into
the final game. Explain how their fans might use the following to explain a loss in the final game:
-hindsight bias:
-overconfidence:
-the tendency to perceive patterns in random events: -
✅-Hindsight bias: After winning three championships, it should have been apparent that they
would not be able to keep up their winning streak as a player might have been injured or not playing
his best.
-Overconfidence: The basketball team must be worn out from winning three championships, so fans
expected them to win one more due to their winning streak.
-The tendency to perceive patterns in random events: Since the team already won three
championships, there would be no way that they could win another. An outcome of four wins in a
row would not be possible, and a loss must be expected.
5-1 Review: How do theories advance psychological science? -
✅-Psychological theories are explanations that apply an integrated set of principles to organize
observations and generate hypotheses--predictions that can be used to check the theory or produce
practical applications of it. By testing their hypotheses, researchers can confirm, reject, or revise their
theories.
-To enable other researchers to replicate the studies, researchers report them using precise
operational definitions of their procedures and concepts. If others achieve similar results, confidence
in the conclusion will be greater.
How do psychologists use case studies, naturalistic observations, and surveys to observe and
describe behavior, and why is random sampling important? -
✅-Description methods, which include case studies, naturalistic observations, and surveys, show
us what can happen, and they may offer ideas for further study.
-The best basis for generalizing about a population is a representative sample; in a random sample,
every person in the entire population being studied has an equal chance of participating.
-Descriptive methods describe but do not explain behavior, because these methods do not control
for the many variables that can affect behavior.
Why is an operational definition necessary when reporting research findings? -
2|Page
, ✅An operational definition allows others to replicate the study
A researcher looking for gender differences in 3-year-olds observes a preschool class and records
how many minutes children of each gender play with dolls. She then compares the two sets of
numbers. What type of descriptive research is she conducting? -
✅Naturalistic observation
Which of the following questions is best investigated by means of a survey?
a. Are people more likely to vote Republican or Democrat in the next election?
b. Are violent criminals genetically different from nonviolent criminals?
c. Does extra sleep improve memory?
d. What is the best study technique for the AP exams?
e. What role does exercise play in weight loss? -
✅A
A testable prediction that drives research is known as a(n) -
✅hypothesis
Researchers are interested in finding out if voters are more likely to vote for congressional candidates
who have more pleasant facial expressions. Starting at a random point, the researchers contact every
100th person on the voter list to ask about candidate facial expressions. Which method are the
researchers using in choosing the people they will call? -
✅Random Sample
An individual with an exceptional memory is identified. For any given date, she is capable of recalling
major events, the weather, and what she did that day. What research method is being used if a
psychologist conducts an in-depth investigation of this individual using questionnaires, brain scans,
and memory tests? -
✅Case Study
Which of the following is most important when conducting survey research? -
✅Choosing a representative sample
Practice FRQ:
3|Page
4-1 Review: How do hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the tendency to perceive order in random
events illustrate why science-based answers are more valid than those based on common sense? -
✅-Hindsight bias (the I knew it all along phenomenon) is the tendency to believe, after learning
an outcome, that we would have foreseen it.
-Overconfidence in our judgments results partly from our bias to seek information that confirms
them.
-These tendencies, along with our eagerness to perceive patterns in random events, lead us to
overestimate the weight of commonsense thinking. Although limited by the testable questions it can
address, scientific inquiry can help us overcome such biases and shortcomings.
After the student council election, a friend tells you he could have guessed who would be elected
president. What psychological phenomenon might this illustrate? -
✅Hindsight bias
While taking a standardized test with randomly scrambled answers, you notice that your last four
answers have been "c." Which of the following is true concerning the probability of the next answer
being "c"? -
✅It is unaffected by previous answers. It is as likely to be "c" as any there answer.
The tendency to exaggerate the correctness or accuracy of our beliefs and predictions is called -
✅Overconfidence
Which of the following is an example of hindsight bias? -
✅Alliyah, after reading a definition on one of her flashcards, turns the card over to see the term,
and then tells herself she knew what the answer was all along.
**Practice FRQ:
Elena won the lottery last night. Afterward, she told her friends that she knew she was going to win.
Her friends think that she is so lucky because she won the lottery last year as well. Explain how
hindsight bias and the tendency to perceive patterns in random events apply to Elena's winnings. -
✅-Hindsight bias: Elena knew today that she would win the lottery bc she did. If she hadn't won,
she would not remember the "feeling" that she would win.
1|Page
,-Pattern in random events: Elena's winnings are unconnected. The odds of winning make it seem like
a person is "lucky" if they win, but the odds of winning the lottery twice are not that unrealistic when
odds of winning are spread out across an entire population.
A local basketball team has won three championships in a row and is on a winning streak going into
the final game. Explain how their fans might use the following to explain a loss in the final game:
-hindsight bias:
-overconfidence:
-the tendency to perceive patterns in random events: -
✅-Hindsight bias: After winning three championships, it should have been apparent that they
would not be able to keep up their winning streak as a player might have been injured or not playing
his best.
-Overconfidence: The basketball team must be worn out from winning three championships, so fans
expected them to win one more due to their winning streak.
-The tendency to perceive patterns in random events: Since the team already won three
championships, there would be no way that they could win another. An outcome of four wins in a
row would not be possible, and a loss must be expected.
5-1 Review: How do theories advance psychological science? -
✅-Psychological theories are explanations that apply an integrated set of principles to organize
observations and generate hypotheses--predictions that can be used to check the theory or produce
practical applications of it. By testing their hypotheses, researchers can confirm, reject, or revise their
theories.
-To enable other researchers to replicate the studies, researchers report them using precise
operational definitions of their procedures and concepts. If others achieve similar results, confidence
in the conclusion will be greater.
How do psychologists use case studies, naturalistic observations, and surveys to observe and
describe behavior, and why is random sampling important? -
✅-Description methods, which include case studies, naturalistic observations, and surveys, show
us what can happen, and they may offer ideas for further study.
-The best basis for generalizing about a population is a representative sample; in a random sample,
every person in the entire population being studied has an equal chance of participating.
-Descriptive methods describe but do not explain behavior, because these methods do not control
for the many variables that can affect behavior.
Why is an operational definition necessary when reporting research findings? -
2|Page
, ✅An operational definition allows others to replicate the study
A researcher looking for gender differences in 3-year-olds observes a preschool class and records
how many minutes children of each gender play with dolls. She then compares the two sets of
numbers. What type of descriptive research is she conducting? -
✅Naturalistic observation
Which of the following questions is best investigated by means of a survey?
a. Are people more likely to vote Republican or Democrat in the next election?
b. Are violent criminals genetically different from nonviolent criminals?
c. Does extra sleep improve memory?
d. What is the best study technique for the AP exams?
e. What role does exercise play in weight loss? -
✅A
A testable prediction that drives research is known as a(n) -
✅hypothesis
Researchers are interested in finding out if voters are more likely to vote for congressional candidates
who have more pleasant facial expressions. Starting at a random point, the researchers contact every
100th person on the voter list to ask about candidate facial expressions. Which method are the
researchers using in choosing the people they will call? -
✅Random Sample
An individual with an exceptional memory is identified. For any given date, she is capable of recalling
major events, the weather, and what she did that day. What research method is being used if a
psychologist conducts an in-depth investigation of this individual using questionnaires, brain scans,
and memory tests? -
✅Case Study
Which of the following is most important when conducting survey research? -
✅Choosing a representative sample
Practice FRQ:
3|Page
