Airbus Amber
READING MODEL 2
PART 1
Read the following text, then read the five statements. Some of these statements are true
according to the text, some of them are false. Write T for True or F for False in the box next
to each statement.
There has been a renaissance of interest into probability theory and what forms it could take in
modern society, recently. When the Royal Society, the world's oldest academy of the
discipline, was founded in London in 1660, science was referred to as natural philosophy. In
the 19th century, though, nature and philosophy went their separate ways as the natural
philosophers grew in number, power and influence. Nevertheless, the bond between the fields
remains in the name of one of the Royal Society's journals, Philosophical Transactions.
The Society refreshed a discussion to clarify the misunderstanding of the ideas of one
particular 18th-century English philosopher, Thomas Bayes. Bayes was one of two pellagrous
influences on the early development of probability theory and statistics. The other was Blaise
Pascal, a Frenchman. Yet, where Pascal's thoughts are transparent and easily grasped, Bayes's
have always been elusive to all but the most studied. Pascal developed his ideas similar to that
of a craps game: each throw of the dice is removed totally from the previous one. Bayes's
allows for the accumulation of experience, and its incorporation into a statistical model in the
form of prior assumptions that can vary with circumstances.
A previous assumption about tomorrow's weather, for example, is that it will be similar to
today's. Assumptions about the weather the day after tomorrow, though, will be modified by
what actually happens tomorrow. Psychologically, people tend to be Bayesian—to the extent
of often making false connections. And that risk of false connection is why scientists like
Pascal's version of the world. It appears to be objective. But when models are built, it is almost
impossible to avoid including Bayesian-style prior assumptions in them. By failing to
acknowledge that, model builders risk making serious mistakes. In one sense it is obvious that
assumptions will affect outcomes—another reason Bayes is not properly acknowledged. That
obviousness, though, buries deeper subtleties. In one of the papers in Philosophical
Transactions David Donars of Brigham Young University points out a cogent example. Climate
models have lots of parameters that are illustrated by numbers, an example being, how quickly
snow crystals fall from clouds, or for how long they stay inside those clouds.
Actually, these are several ways of measuring the same thing, so whether a model uses one or
the other should make no difference to its predictions. And, on a single run, it does not. But
models are not given single runs; they are run thousands of times, with different values for the
parameters, to produce a range of possible outcomes, since the future is uncertain. The results
are presumed to aggregate around the most probable version of the future. The particular
range of values chosen for a parameter is an example of a Bayesian prior assumption, since it
Airbus Amber
, Airbus Amber
stems from actual experience of how the climate behaves—and may thus be modified in the
light of experience. But the individual values used to plug into the model can cause trouble.
Models of climate have a plethora of parameters that might somehow be related in this sort of
way. To be sure you are seeing valid results rather than artifacts of the models, you need to
take account of all the ways that can happen. (Based on Economist Magazine)
1. Pascal is more straightforward about his thoughts than Bayes.
2. Pascal based his theory on a card game.
3. Bayes calculated certain modifying variables into his theory.
4. Climate models must have a number of ways of measuring the very same thing to be
able to predict the most probable outcome.
5. It is impossible to properly set up the parameters as you have to account for all the
possible ways it can happen.
PART 2
Read the text and fill the gaps with the correct sentences A-H. Write the letter of the
missing sentence in the box in the gap. There are two extra sentences you will not need.
Female hyenas get around incestuous mating by encouraging male relatives to look elsewhere for
sex, new research shows. The females use their dominant status in hyena society to spurn males in
their clan, thereby avoiding the risk of inbreeding, the study suggests. This tactic has never been
demonstrated before in mammals, 1. _________________________, the scientists added. The ten-
year study was based on eight groups, or clans, of spotted hyenas living in Azimuth Crater, Congo. A
team, led by Joachim Schmidt at the Wildlife Research Estate in Düsseldorf, Germany, 2.
_________________________ using field observations and DNA samples of more than 400
individuals. The findings conclude that young female hyenas prefer mating with males that
immigrate from other clans, or with younger males. Older females were also found to mate with
immigrants, 3. ________________________ As a result of these preferences, 89 percent of young
males left their clans to have sex elsewhere. Schmidt said this pattern towards coupling is the result
of females following an innate code that prevents these perverse, sexual encounters. "4.
____________________ after the females were born. The older females also have an additional
rule: They don't particularly like young, male upstarts that they are unfamiliar with," Schmidt said. 5.
_________________________ or other crippling disabilities. It's particularly important in the
female's interests to avoid incestuous relationships, the team argues, because female spotted
hyenas provide their offspring particularly lengthy care, lasting 15 to 18 months. Males, on the other
hand, are largely absent fathers. 6. ____________________, and then abscond to forage and rest
Schmidt said. "If males breed with a close relative, they lose little because they have so many other
females to choose from." However, male hyenas must go along with the mating preferences of the
socially dominant females, whose bizarre genitalia make forced sex almost impossible. Kyle Laurent
of Columbia University commented that the female mate choice rule proposed by the study team "is
Airbus Amber
READING MODEL 2
PART 1
Read the following text, then read the five statements. Some of these statements are true
according to the text, some of them are false. Write T for True or F for False in the box next
to each statement.
There has been a renaissance of interest into probability theory and what forms it could take in
modern society, recently. When the Royal Society, the world's oldest academy of the
discipline, was founded in London in 1660, science was referred to as natural philosophy. In
the 19th century, though, nature and philosophy went their separate ways as the natural
philosophers grew in number, power and influence. Nevertheless, the bond between the fields
remains in the name of one of the Royal Society's journals, Philosophical Transactions.
The Society refreshed a discussion to clarify the misunderstanding of the ideas of one
particular 18th-century English philosopher, Thomas Bayes. Bayes was one of two pellagrous
influences on the early development of probability theory and statistics. The other was Blaise
Pascal, a Frenchman. Yet, where Pascal's thoughts are transparent and easily grasped, Bayes's
have always been elusive to all but the most studied. Pascal developed his ideas similar to that
of a craps game: each throw of the dice is removed totally from the previous one. Bayes's
allows for the accumulation of experience, and its incorporation into a statistical model in the
form of prior assumptions that can vary with circumstances.
A previous assumption about tomorrow's weather, for example, is that it will be similar to
today's. Assumptions about the weather the day after tomorrow, though, will be modified by
what actually happens tomorrow. Psychologically, people tend to be Bayesian—to the extent
of often making false connections. And that risk of false connection is why scientists like
Pascal's version of the world. It appears to be objective. But when models are built, it is almost
impossible to avoid including Bayesian-style prior assumptions in them. By failing to
acknowledge that, model builders risk making serious mistakes. In one sense it is obvious that
assumptions will affect outcomes—another reason Bayes is not properly acknowledged. That
obviousness, though, buries deeper subtleties. In one of the papers in Philosophical
Transactions David Donars of Brigham Young University points out a cogent example. Climate
models have lots of parameters that are illustrated by numbers, an example being, how quickly
snow crystals fall from clouds, or for how long they stay inside those clouds.
Actually, these are several ways of measuring the same thing, so whether a model uses one or
the other should make no difference to its predictions. And, on a single run, it does not. But
models are not given single runs; they are run thousands of times, with different values for the
parameters, to produce a range of possible outcomes, since the future is uncertain. The results
are presumed to aggregate around the most probable version of the future. The particular
range of values chosen for a parameter is an example of a Bayesian prior assumption, since it
Airbus Amber
, Airbus Amber
stems from actual experience of how the climate behaves—and may thus be modified in the
light of experience. But the individual values used to plug into the model can cause trouble.
Models of climate have a plethora of parameters that might somehow be related in this sort of
way. To be sure you are seeing valid results rather than artifacts of the models, you need to
take account of all the ways that can happen. (Based on Economist Magazine)
1. Pascal is more straightforward about his thoughts than Bayes.
2. Pascal based his theory on a card game.
3. Bayes calculated certain modifying variables into his theory.
4. Climate models must have a number of ways of measuring the very same thing to be
able to predict the most probable outcome.
5. It is impossible to properly set up the parameters as you have to account for all the
possible ways it can happen.
PART 2
Read the text and fill the gaps with the correct sentences A-H. Write the letter of the
missing sentence in the box in the gap. There are two extra sentences you will not need.
Female hyenas get around incestuous mating by encouraging male relatives to look elsewhere for
sex, new research shows. The females use their dominant status in hyena society to spurn males in
their clan, thereby avoiding the risk of inbreeding, the study suggests. This tactic has never been
demonstrated before in mammals, 1. _________________________, the scientists added. The ten-
year study was based on eight groups, or clans, of spotted hyenas living in Azimuth Crater, Congo. A
team, led by Joachim Schmidt at the Wildlife Research Estate in Düsseldorf, Germany, 2.
_________________________ using field observations and DNA samples of more than 400
individuals. The findings conclude that young female hyenas prefer mating with males that
immigrate from other clans, or with younger males. Older females were also found to mate with
immigrants, 3. ________________________ As a result of these preferences, 89 percent of young
males left their clans to have sex elsewhere. Schmidt said this pattern towards coupling is the result
of females following an innate code that prevents these perverse, sexual encounters. "4.
____________________ after the females were born. The older females also have an additional
rule: They don't particularly like young, male upstarts that they are unfamiliar with," Schmidt said. 5.
_________________________ or other crippling disabilities. It's particularly important in the
female's interests to avoid incestuous relationships, the team argues, because female spotted
hyenas provide their offspring particularly lengthy care, lasting 15 to 18 months. Males, on the other
hand, are largely absent fathers. 6. ____________________, and then abscond to forage and rest
Schmidt said. "If males breed with a close relative, they lose little because they have so many other
females to choose from." However, male hyenas must go along with the mating preferences of the
socially dominant females, whose bizarre genitalia make forced sex almost impossible. Kyle Laurent
of Columbia University commented that the female mate choice rule proposed by the study team "is
Airbus Amber
