4. Voting behaviour and media
4.1 Case studies of three key general elections
Case studies of three elections, the results and their impact on parties and the factors that explain the
outcomes of these elections
Party Policies and manifestoes
1979
Both Labour and Conservative manifestoes were notable for their moderation. Both gave high priority
to bringing inflation down.
Callaghan came from Labour's traditional centre-right and her resisted pressure for more extreme
proposals from his party's left wing
Thatcher's policy statement contained very little indication that she intended to move her party to the
right
Both Labour and Conservatives = moderate.
Both gave priority to bring down inflation
Callaghan = labour's traditional centre right--> resisting parties far left proposals
Thatcher's policy statement contained very little indication that she intended to move her party to the
right (some mention of privatisation and removing trade union powers but not a radical crusade to
scale down the state sector)
That means that Callaghan's warning of a shift to the right was not credible.
1983
Gerald Kaufman described Labour's manifesto as "the longest suicide note in political history" because
of its left wing content - however it explains scale of defeat, not the fact Labour lost
1997
The 'New Labour' project abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalism, tax increases and
the strengthening of trade union powers, (which might put off non-committed middle-class)
Blair also gave off reassuringly tough signals on law and order, an issue that mattered to voters
following rising crime rates in the early 1990s, and emphasised his links to the business community
Crucially, Labour won the endorsement of the greater part of the press, including The Sun and The
Times
The message was that New Labour was a moderate party with the interests of 'middle England' at heart
As a sign of the party's desire to show how responsible it was, its 1997 platform stressed specific policy
details where it promised to make a difference, such as reducing the size of primary school classes and
cutting hospital waiting lists
There was no stark difference between Labour and the Conservatives
Another of Labour's policies that helped the party win was Blair's emphasis on constitutional reform,
which gave the party common ground with the Liberal Democrats
This made it easier for Liberal Democrats to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats, which their
own candidates could not hope to win. This may have added up to 30 seats to the Labour majority
2010
There was little difference between the three main parties on the main issue of the election - the need to
reduce the budget deficit- which had increased to £163 billion, since the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
All 3 parties pledged to make savings without sacrificing essential public services. The differences were
on the timing and extent of public-spending cute. The Conservatives were alone in calling for immediate
cut; and the cuts should be phased in gradually.
From 2008 Cameron and his team focused their attacks on Labour's alleged mismanagement of the
economy, accusing the party of reckless over spending and a failure to regulate the banking system
effectively. This gained considerable traction with the electorate; in one opinion poll 59% of voters
agree that most of the extra money spent by the Labour government had been wasted.
2017
Conservatives abandoned the 'triple lock' on pensions and proposed means testing winter fuel
payments. They also proposed using money from private housing to finance elderly care. Fiscally this
was sensible, politically, it was disastrous - "Dementia Tax"
1
, Labour proposed the end of tuition fees and greater regulation of energy - popular policies - seat gains
included Leeds NW, Bristol W, Cambridge, Canterbury
2019
Boris "get Brexit done" = clear, popular and especially with traditional Labour votes in North; Lib Dems
- remain and ignore referendum - this was undemocratic - major own goal: Labour confused - 2nd
referendum? Leave by renegotiate? Boris wins 80 seat majority
The election campaigns
1979
The conservatives adopted many of the techniques of modern advertising under the guidance of two
professional publicity specialists, Gordon Reece and Tim Bell.
The Labour campaign lacked awareness of presentation, whereas Thatcher proved compliant to her
advisers' invention of photo opportunities, and was pictured doing everything
The real impact of the campaign is hard to measure. Although the Conservatives outpaced labour in the
opinion polls, when votes were asked who would make the better prime minister, Callaghan was 20
points ahead of Thatcher on average. In spite of his mistakes, voters still respected his air of experience.
Thatcher was wise to turn down the offer of a televised debate, which would of highlighted this
difference between them. It was perfectly expected to do so as a debate had not been held at any
previous election
1992
Polling suggested Labour would win or at worst be the largest party. In fact Major won with a 21 seat
majority. Neil Kinnock's Sheffield Rally late in the campaign, in which he looked too cocky seems to
have turned off voters and caused a late switch to the Conservatives John Major had campaigned among
ordinary votes on a 'soapbox' and seemed down to earth
1997
New Labour placed a huge emphasis in developing a professional vote-winning machine
It employed public-relations experts to handle the media, used focus groups to assess public opinion
and systematically targeted marginal seats, rather than safe seats
However, the importance of the strategy should not be exaggerated. Labour's share of the vote
increased on average by 12.5% in its target seats but by 13.4% in constituencies that it neglected
In fact, despite the central control over the campaign exerted by Labour headquarters, the party's lead
in the opinion polls actually declined in the course of the campaign.
2010
The 2010 election provides further evidence of the limited importance of campaigns in determining the
final result.
The Conservatives had begun intense targeting of marginal seats early in the 2005-10 parliament,
striving to get their candidates established at a local level, market-testing policies with voters and
emphasising their support for public services on which people depended. Yet in spite of these efforts,
the Conservatives were still 20 seats short of an overall majority.
On the Labour side much was made of Gordon Brown's unscripted meeting with a voter in Rochdale,
Lancashire. After she embarrassed him with a hostile question about immigration, a radio microphone
picked him up describing her as a 'bigoted woman' while he was being driven away. The incident was
seized by the media, but its actual significance was limited. Brown was already behind in the polls and
in fact Labour held Rochdale, where the incident took place.
The most remarkable innovation of the 2010 campaign was the decision to hold televised debates
featuring the 3 main party leaders. Brown was generally felt to have come across as rather wooden and
his tendency to reply, 'I agree with Nick' was derided at the time. Nick Clegg experienced a boost in the
opinion polls after an unexpectedly good performance in the first of the three debates, but this fell back
before polling day. Although the Liberal Democrats were able to enter government in coalition with the
Conservatives, they lost a total of five seats
2017
"Strong and stable government" (Con) versus "for the many not the few" (Lab)
Labour started on 25% - 17 points behind. Ended 42%-40%
Public are asked who would be the best Prime Minister? Start of election: Corbyn 15%, May 54%, End of
Election:
2
4.1 Case studies of three key general elections
Case studies of three elections, the results and their impact on parties and the factors that explain the
outcomes of these elections
Party Policies and manifestoes
1979
Both Labour and Conservative manifestoes were notable for their moderation. Both gave high priority
to bringing inflation down.
Callaghan came from Labour's traditional centre-right and her resisted pressure for more extreme
proposals from his party's left wing
Thatcher's policy statement contained very little indication that she intended to move her party to the
right
Both Labour and Conservatives = moderate.
Both gave priority to bring down inflation
Callaghan = labour's traditional centre right--> resisting parties far left proposals
Thatcher's policy statement contained very little indication that she intended to move her party to the
right (some mention of privatisation and removing trade union powers but not a radical crusade to
scale down the state sector)
That means that Callaghan's warning of a shift to the right was not credible.
1983
Gerald Kaufman described Labour's manifesto as "the longest suicide note in political history" because
of its left wing content - however it explains scale of defeat, not the fact Labour lost
1997
The 'New Labour' project abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalism, tax increases and
the strengthening of trade union powers, (which might put off non-committed middle-class)
Blair also gave off reassuringly tough signals on law and order, an issue that mattered to voters
following rising crime rates in the early 1990s, and emphasised his links to the business community
Crucially, Labour won the endorsement of the greater part of the press, including The Sun and The
Times
The message was that New Labour was a moderate party with the interests of 'middle England' at heart
As a sign of the party's desire to show how responsible it was, its 1997 platform stressed specific policy
details where it promised to make a difference, such as reducing the size of primary school classes and
cutting hospital waiting lists
There was no stark difference between Labour and the Conservatives
Another of Labour's policies that helped the party win was Blair's emphasis on constitutional reform,
which gave the party common ground with the Liberal Democrats
This made it easier for Liberal Democrats to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats, which their
own candidates could not hope to win. This may have added up to 30 seats to the Labour majority
2010
There was little difference between the three main parties on the main issue of the election - the need to
reduce the budget deficit- which had increased to £163 billion, since the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
All 3 parties pledged to make savings without sacrificing essential public services. The differences were
on the timing and extent of public-spending cute. The Conservatives were alone in calling for immediate
cut; and the cuts should be phased in gradually.
From 2008 Cameron and his team focused their attacks on Labour's alleged mismanagement of the
economy, accusing the party of reckless over spending and a failure to regulate the banking system
effectively. This gained considerable traction with the electorate; in one opinion poll 59% of voters
agree that most of the extra money spent by the Labour government had been wasted.
2017
Conservatives abandoned the 'triple lock' on pensions and proposed means testing winter fuel
payments. They also proposed using money from private housing to finance elderly care. Fiscally this
was sensible, politically, it was disastrous - "Dementia Tax"
1
, Labour proposed the end of tuition fees and greater regulation of energy - popular policies - seat gains
included Leeds NW, Bristol W, Cambridge, Canterbury
2019
Boris "get Brexit done" = clear, popular and especially with traditional Labour votes in North; Lib Dems
- remain and ignore referendum - this was undemocratic - major own goal: Labour confused - 2nd
referendum? Leave by renegotiate? Boris wins 80 seat majority
The election campaigns
1979
The conservatives adopted many of the techniques of modern advertising under the guidance of two
professional publicity specialists, Gordon Reece and Tim Bell.
The Labour campaign lacked awareness of presentation, whereas Thatcher proved compliant to her
advisers' invention of photo opportunities, and was pictured doing everything
The real impact of the campaign is hard to measure. Although the Conservatives outpaced labour in the
opinion polls, when votes were asked who would make the better prime minister, Callaghan was 20
points ahead of Thatcher on average. In spite of his mistakes, voters still respected his air of experience.
Thatcher was wise to turn down the offer of a televised debate, which would of highlighted this
difference between them. It was perfectly expected to do so as a debate had not been held at any
previous election
1992
Polling suggested Labour would win or at worst be the largest party. In fact Major won with a 21 seat
majority. Neil Kinnock's Sheffield Rally late in the campaign, in which he looked too cocky seems to
have turned off voters and caused a late switch to the Conservatives John Major had campaigned among
ordinary votes on a 'soapbox' and seemed down to earth
1997
New Labour placed a huge emphasis in developing a professional vote-winning machine
It employed public-relations experts to handle the media, used focus groups to assess public opinion
and systematically targeted marginal seats, rather than safe seats
However, the importance of the strategy should not be exaggerated. Labour's share of the vote
increased on average by 12.5% in its target seats but by 13.4% in constituencies that it neglected
In fact, despite the central control over the campaign exerted by Labour headquarters, the party's lead
in the opinion polls actually declined in the course of the campaign.
2010
The 2010 election provides further evidence of the limited importance of campaigns in determining the
final result.
The Conservatives had begun intense targeting of marginal seats early in the 2005-10 parliament,
striving to get their candidates established at a local level, market-testing policies with voters and
emphasising their support for public services on which people depended. Yet in spite of these efforts,
the Conservatives were still 20 seats short of an overall majority.
On the Labour side much was made of Gordon Brown's unscripted meeting with a voter in Rochdale,
Lancashire. After she embarrassed him with a hostile question about immigration, a radio microphone
picked him up describing her as a 'bigoted woman' while he was being driven away. The incident was
seized by the media, but its actual significance was limited. Brown was already behind in the polls and
in fact Labour held Rochdale, where the incident took place.
The most remarkable innovation of the 2010 campaign was the decision to hold televised debates
featuring the 3 main party leaders. Brown was generally felt to have come across as rather wooden and
his tendency to reply, 'I agree with Nick' was derided at the time. Nick Clegg experienced a boost in the
opinion polls after an unexpectedly good performance in the first of the three debates, but this fell back
before polling day. Although the Liberal Democrats were able to enter government in coalition with the
Conservatives, they lost a total of five seats
2017
"Strong and stable government" (Con) versus "for the many not the few" (Lab)
Labour started on 25% - 17 points behind. Ended 42%-40%
Public are asked who would be the best Prime Minister? Start of election: Corbyn 15%, May 54%, End of
Election:
2
