Judgement & decision making
Video 1
Pag 2
Rational decision:
If you need to make a choice between several alternatives
e.g.; I need to find a new car (problem). The size of the car, quality, limited budget, safe car
(criteria). You need to weight them, safety is the most important (weigh). You need to rate
every car (rate). And then, you need to compute the optimal decision
=> if you need to do this with every decision, it’s very effortful and slow
How do you make most decisions?
Is it in a rational way? Are some decisions in rational way and other not?
Pag 3
Bounded rationality
Limitations on perception: How can I get to all the information about the quality?
How comfortable is the car? Hard to rate
Biases in our decision process
Bcs of heuristics:
-we are able to cope with complex environment
-results with biases
Pag 4
3 videos
Nobel prize winner Daniel
An example of a woman and predict her job
Flipping coins heads or tail
Example: representativeness heuristic
Pag 5
Intuition and perception are similar; see characteristics
Reasoning is acting rational
In system 1; you aren’t conscious of how the process is evolving
System 2: you are conscious about the process
We think that we are captain Spork, but we aren’t, 98% of the time we are Homer
Pag 6
System 1 is the one who is leading the show, if you want to change something, that’s the
thing you need to change – Daniel
Video:
Availability heuristics = something that might occur whenever we are trying to answer the
question ‘how frequent is x?’
, Question to passerby’s: English has more words that start with k or more words who have k
as 3th letter?
K as 3th letter
How easily does X come to mind?
If it’s easy to come to mind, it’s common and probably frequent
If it’s hard to come to mind, it’s not common
This happens with the words with k, it’s easier to bring words that begin with a k to
mind
e.g.; plane crashes or car crashes? More likely to say plane crashes bcs we hear more about
it in the news, so they come easier to mind
availability bias
pag 7
anchoring bias:
video:
if we plant an idea/number in your head it has a big effect on subsequent judgment
e.g.; asked people ‘please write down last 4 of your social security number’ + ‘think of a
number of physicians
is it smaller or larger than your number? What is your estimation of physicians?
And their answer is always close by their social security number = anchoring
Pag 8
Example of anchoring bias: when did Mahatma Gandhi died?
Higher or lower than 9 and 140? How old do you estimate him?
If you got the question of 9, you normally will answer that it’s closer to 9 (same with 140)
Dan Ariely – book predictably irrational
Last 2 digits of number, would you pay this number for wine bottle?
How much do you want to pay for wine?
=>The higher their digits, the higher their willingness to pay!!!
Pag 10
Done in commercials as well, when you see the new price you are more willing to pay -> you
see it as a bargain
Pag 11
bargaining
Initial offers have a stronger influence on outcome of negotiations than subsequent
outcomes
Ridicule answers are proposed, but eventually it will be based on that
Pag 12
The confirmation bias
e.g.; Looking for something on internet, you see that they have good reviews => information
that confers what they already believe
Video 1
Pag 2
Rational decision:
If you need to make a choice between several alternatives
e.g.; I need to find a new car (problem). The size of the car, quality, limited budget, safe car
(criteria). You need to weight them, safety is the most important (weigh). You need to rate
every car (rate). And then, you need to compute the optimal decision
=> if you need to do this with every decision, it’s very effortful and slow
How do you make most decisions?
Is it in a rational way? Are some decisions in rational way and other not?
Pag 3
Bounded rationality
Limitations on perception: How can I get to all the information about the quality?
How comfortable is the car? Hard to rate
Biases in our decision process
Bcs of heuristics:
-we are able to cope with complex environment
-results with biases
Pag 4
3 videos
Nobel prize winner Daniel
An example of a woman and predict her job
Flipping coins heads or tail
Example: representativeness heuristic
Pag 5
Intuition and perception are similar; see characteristics
Reasoning is acting rational
In system 1; you aren’t conscious of how the process is evolving
System 2: you are conscious about the process
We think that we are captain Spork, but we aren’t, 98% of the time we are Homer
Pag 6
System 1 is the one who is leading the show, if you want to change something, that’s the
thing you need to change – Daniel
Video:
Availability heuristics = something that might occur whenever we are trying to answer the
question ‘how frequent is x?’
, Question to passerby’s: English has more words that start with k or more words who have k
as 3th letter?
K as 3th letter
How easily does X come to mind?
If it’s easy to come to mind, it’s common and probably frequent
If it’s hard to come to mind, it’s not common
This happens with the words with k, it’s easier to bring words that begin with a k to
mind
e.g.; plane crashes or car crashes? More likely to say plane crashes bcs we hear more about
it in the news, so they come easier to mind
availability bias
pag 7
anchoring bias:
video:
if we plant an idea/number in your head it has a big effect on subsequent judgment
e.g.; asked people ‘please write down last 4 of your social security number’ + ‘think of a
number of physicians
is it smaller or larger than your number? What is your estimation of physicians?
And their answer is always close by their social security number = anchoring
Pag 8
Example of anchoring bias: when did Mahatma Gandhi died?
Higher or lower than 9 and 140? How old do you estimate him?
If you got the question of 9, you normally will answer that it’s closer to 9 (same with 140)
Dan Ariely – book predictably irrational
Last 2 digits of number, would you pay this number for wine bottle?
How much do you want to pay for wine?
=>The higher their digits, the higher their willingness to pay!!!
Pag 10
Done in commercials as well, when you see the new price you are more willing to pay -> you
see it as a bargain
Pag 11
bargaining
Initial offers have a stronger influence on outcome of negotiations than subsequent
outcomes
Ridicule answers are proposed, but eventually it will be based on that
Pag 12
The confirmation bias
e.g.; Looking for something on internet, you see that they have good reviews => information
that confers what they already believe
