Examine how the age-sex composition of a country’s population changes at different
stages of the Demographic Transition Model (9 Marks) – Alice Baker
In stages 1 and 2 of the DTM both the death rate and birth rate are high. This is due to the
lack of healthcare in the country because of lack of investment and education. In addition to
this, contraception methods are less available as a result of the lack of education and
investment in healthcare which results in higher birth-rates. The high levels of death and
birth rates will cause the profile of the pyramid to be more concave, with a wider base and
shorter sides to reflect the high birth and death rates. Very little countries are considered to
be stage 1 or 2 countries in the present day, however places such as rural communities of
Bangladesh or Peru would be considered 1 and 2 stage areas.
As more investment is put into a country’s healthcare, lower birth and death rates will occur
due to reduce in risks of disease and an increase in access to contraception. We can see this
in Stage 3 of the DTM in which, death and birth-rates start to fall, and the profile of the
population pyramid becomes more convex, with a shorter bas and taller sides to reflect that
less people are being born and that people are living beyond 65. An example of a stage 3
country can be seen in India as healthcare has improved, letting more and more people live
beyond 65 whilst simultaneously reducing birth-rates through access to contraception and
advances in education. In stage 4 of the DTM, there is a further reduction in birth rates and
as healthcare advances a larger elderly population is created, whilst fertility rates and birth-
rates drop to 2 children or less per woman. This causes the base of the pyramid to become a
lot shorter, resulting in a much more convex profile overall. An example of a stage 4 country
is the USA which has an advanced healthcare system and a newly ageing population due to
drops in fertility rates and death rates.
Finally, In stage 5 of the DTM, the birth rate falls to a similar level as the death rate, causing
the overall population increase to stabilise and in some places to drop into negatives. This
further reduction in birth rates, leads to an ageing population as a higher percentage of the
population falls into the elderly category as a result of less young people and effective
healthcare. This increase in an elderly population can put strain on the working percentage
of the population as the dependency ratio increases due to the fact that there are more
elderly people to support and less people of working age to provide that support. A stage 5
pyramid will have a very short base and much taller sides, creating a very convex profile. An
example of a stage 5 pyramid can be seen Japan as their ageing population creates a higher
percentage of elderly people and a smaller percentage of children due to reductions in
fertility rates and birth rates. Typically, in a stage 5 country there will also be a higher
percentage of elderly women as women tend to live longer than men. Japan’s fertility rate is
1.3 children per woman which is less than the replacement ration (2.1 children per woman)
needed to sustain population. Due to the lack of young people, the government has
implemented immigration policies in an attempt to reduce the dependency ratio.
stages of the Demographic Transition Model (9 Marks) – Alice Baker
In stages 1 and 2 of the DTM both the death rate and birth rate are high. This is due to the
lack of healthcare in the country because of lack of investment and education. In addition to
this, contraception methods are less available as a result of the lack of education and
investment in healthcare which results in higher birth-rates. The high levels of death and
birth rates will cause the profile of the pyramid to be more concave, with a wider base and
shorter sides to reflect the high birth and death rates. Very little countries are considered to
be stage 1 or 2 countries in the present day, however places such as rural communities of
Bangladesh or Peru would be considered 1 and 2 stage areas.
As more investment is put into a country’s healthcare, lower birth and death rates will occur
due to reduce in risks of disease and an increase in access to contraception. We can see this
in Stage 3 of the DTM in which, death and birth-rates start to fall, and the profile of the
population pyramid becomes more convex, with a shorter bas and taller sides to reflect that
less people are being born and that people are living beyond 65. An example of a stage 3
country can be seen in India as healthcare has improved, letting more and more people live
beyond 65 whilst simultaneously reducing birth-rates through access to contraception and
advances in education. In stage 4 of the DTM, there is a further reduction in birth rates and
as healthcare advances a larger elderly population is created, whilst fertility rates and birth-
rates drop to 2 children or less per woman. This causes the base of the pyramid to become a
lot shorter, resulting in a much more convex profile overall. An example of a stage 4 country
is the USA which has an advanced healthcare system and a newly ageing population due to
drops in fertility rates and death rates.
Finally, In stage 5 of the DTM, the birth rate falls to a similar level as the death rate, causing
the overall population increase to stabilise and in some places to drop into negatives. This
further reduction in birth rates, leads to an ageing population as a higher percentage of the
population falls into the elderly category as a result of less young people and effective
healthcare. This increase in an elderly population can put strain on the working percentage
of the population as the dependency ratio increases due to the fact that there are more
elderly people to support and less people of working age to provide that support. A stage 5
pyramid will have a very short base and much taller sides, creating a very convex profile. An
example of a stage 5 pyramid can be seen Japan as their ageing population creates a higher
percentage of elderly people and a smaller percentage of children due to reductions in
fertility rates and birth rates. Typically, in a stage 5 country there will also be a higher
percentage of elderly women as women tend to live longer than men. Japan’s fertility rate is
1.3 children per woman which is less than the replacement ration (2.1 children per woman)
needed to sustain population. Due to the lack of young people, the government has
implemented immigration policies in an attempt to reduce the dependency ratio.
