Africa: 1945-79
Geography and African development
Africa’s disadvantageous geography
● Bloom and Sachs (1998) - Africa’s geography causes its poverty
○ Share of land and population in the tropics
○ Climate, soils topography, ecology, disease
● Causes low agricultural productivity, disease (malaria) and trade concentrated
in few primary commodities
● Temperatures remain constant throughout the year but vary with altitude and
proximity to the sea
○ Equal length of day and night throughout the year
● Aridity and drought is common
○ Over ½ the African population experienced drought between 1983-95
● No cold or dry seasons
○ Net photosynthesis reduced by high net temperatures at night
○ Reduced sunlight at peak times of the year
○ High temperatures reduce the soil-water balance via increased
evapotranspiration
● Oxisols - long time since the most recent glacier cover
○ Soils are old / poor and are more likely to be washed away and
leached of nutrients during torrential rains
Rainfall and growth
● Barrios et al (2010) - has been distinct change in rainfall trends since the
1960s
○ Severe droughts and declining mean rainfall
● May explain the growth performance due to the importance of agriculture
● Rainfall anomalies significantly predict GDP growth in Africa
○ Looked at long-run standard deviation of rain and compared dry and
wet years within the same country
The tsetse fly
● Tsetse fly is unique to Africa - transmits a parasite that causes sleeping
sickness in people and nagana in livestock
○ Inhibited the spread of animal husbandry and pastoralism
● Areas that were suitable for the fly were less likely to use draft animals and
the plough in pre-colonial eras
○ Greater reliance on hunting and gathering leads to more mobile
societies that were harder to tax
, ○ May have reduced the population density and increased transport
costs
○ Made state-building more difficult
○ Reduced intensive agriculture and permanent settlement
● Long-run negative effects on development
○ These areas have less nighttime lights today
○ Explained by pre-colonial institutions
○ Geography has indirectly caused these colonial institutions
Geography and the Africa dummy
● Bloom and Sachs (1998) - in a regression of GDP per capita on observable
variables and a dummy variable for Africa, the “Africa dummy” has a
significant negative impact
○ African growth / GDP per capita is below what the observable
characteristics predict
● B&S - demography and geography account for this variable
African economic policy
Democracy
● Polity IV database ranks countries on how democratic they are
○ 0 - selection (if the leader is hand picked)
○ 1 - transitional
○ 2 - election
● Nigeria was ranked 7, Ethiopia -3, South Africa 9 and Botswana 8
● UK = 10, North Korea =-10
● Much of Africa was undemocratic at the end of the 1960s and this did not
change much until the 1990s
○ Started to become democratic in Benin
Openness
● Sachs and Warner (1995) - 1950s - ⅓ of the population lived in Socialist
countries
○ 50% lived in countries with state-led industrialisation
● 1993 - 50% lived in countries open to trade
● Economies were closed because:
○ Export pessimism - no benefits to opening your economy when other
countries are closed
○ Pegged currencies and a fear of instability
○ Capitalism was discredited after WWs and the depression
○ Nationalisation in Britain and France
Geography and African development
Africa’s disadvantageous geography
● Bloom and Sachs (1998) - Africa’s geography causes its poverty
○ Share of land and population in the tropics
○ Climate, soils topography, ecology, disease
● Causes low agricultural productivity, disease (malaria) and trade concentrated
in few primary commodities
● Temperatures remain constant throughout the year but vary with altitude and
proximity to the sea
○ Equal length of day and night throughout the year
● Aridity and drought is common
○ Over ½ the African population experienced drought between 1983-95
● No cold or dry seasons
○ Net photosynthesis reduced by high net temperatures at night
○ Reduced sunlight at peak times of the year
○ High temperatures reduce the soil-water balance via increased
evapotranspiration
● Oxisols - long time since the most recent glacier cover
○ Soils are old / poor and are more likely to be washed away and
leached of nutrients during torrential rains
Rainfall and growth
● Barrios et al (2010) - has been distinct change in rainfall trends since the
1960s
○ Severe droughts and declining mean rainfall
● May explain the growth performance due to the importance of agriculture
● Rainfall anomalies significantly predict GDP growth in Africa
○ Looked at long-run standard deviation of rain and compared dry and
wet years within the same country
The tsetse fly
● Tsetse fly is unique to Africa - transmits a parasite that causes sleeping
sickness in people and nagana in livestock
○ Inhibited the spread of animal husbandry and pastoralism
● Areas that were suitable for the fly were less likely to use draft animals and
the plough in pre-colonial eras
○ Greater reliance on hunting and gathering leads to more mobile
societies that were harder to tax
, ○ May have reduced the population density and increased transport
costs
○ Made state-building more difficult
○ Reduced intensive agriculture and permanent settlement
● Long-run negative effects on development
○ These areas have less nighttime lights today
○ Explained by pre-colonial institutions
○ Geography has indirectly caused these colonial institutions
Geography and the Africa dummy
● Bloom and Sachs (1998) - in a regression of GDP per capita on observable
variables and a dummy variable for Africa, the “Africa dummy” has a
significant negative impact
○ African growth / GDP per capita is below what the observable
characteristics predict
● B&S - demography and geography account for this variable
African economic policy
Democracy
● Polity IV database ranks countries on how democratic they are
○ 0 - selection (if the leader is hand picked)
○ 1 - transitional
○ 2 - election
● Nigeria was ranked 7, Ethiopia -3, South Africa 9 and Botswana 8
● UK = 10, North Korea =-10
● Much of Africa was undemocratic at the end of the 1960s and this did not
change much until the 1990s
○ Started to become democratic in Benin
Openness
● Sachs and Warner (1995) - 1950s - ⅓ of the population lived in Socialist
countries
○ 50% lived in countries with state-led industrialisation
● 1993 - 50% lived in countries open to trade
● Economies were closed because:
○ Export pessimism - no benefits to opening your economy when other
countries are closed
○ Pegged currencies and a fear of instability
○ Capitalism was discredited after WWs and the depression
○ Nationalisation in Britain and France
