MGT 3900 PLAN REQUIREMENTS FOR MIYAOKA LITTLEFIELD SIMULATION

Clemson University Plan Requirements for Miyaoka Littlefield Simulation Team Name: Team2 Questions about the game set up: 1) The cost of a single raw kit is: Unit cost = $10.00/kit 2) The lead time to obtain an order of raw kits is: 4 days 3) The amount of interest earned on the cash balance is (choose one): a. Current market rate. b. 5% c. 10% d. 10% minus taxes Forecast of demand: Either enter your demand forecast for the weeks requested below, or use Excel to create a projected demand graph and import that into a Word document. The forecast is to be based on information given in the instructions AND data you have at the start of the simulation from the first 50 days of operation. Period Forecast (on average per day) 0-50 12.24 50-100 16 100-200 16 200-268 16 Explain how you made your forecast. If you used a forecasting rule, state which rule and show the calculations. We plotted job arrival data from the simulation in excel and found the average demand over the first 50 days to be 12.24. Then we found the standard deviation of the data to be 3.44. With this information we can create a basic confidence interval within one standard deviation of the mean. CI = 12.24 +/- 3.44 > 15.7 – 8.8 While our demand could drop to around 8.8, we need to be able to account for uncertainty and the potential increase in demand. Therefore, we are going to forecast demand at 16 to buffer against uncertainty in demand and to be able to plan our appropriate capacity