Sources for Evaluating General Economic Trends - Answers Leading Economic Index: (When the
index turns downward, it signals a coming recession.)
Consumer Confidence Index: The monthly Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
telephone survey asks 1,000 randomly selected adults questions about perceptions of job
security and their willingness to spend money. Helps predict future economic activity.
Exchange rate trends: Exchange rates reflect the cost of one country's currency in terms of
another currency. By influencing the cost of raw materials, the price of the organization's
exports, and the prices of competitors' imports, exchange rates influence product demand and
subsequent demand for employees.
Interest rate forecasts: Interest rates reflect the cost of borrowing money. Higher interest rates
make money more expensive to borrow. Accordingly, interest rates influence both consumer
demand for a company's products and companies' willingness to borrow money to fund
expansion plans.
Additional economic indicators include gross domestic product (GDP), business inventories
(reported by the Department of Commerce), and the monthly Purchasing Managers Index
(reported by the Institute for Supply Management).
Trend analysis - Answers using past employment patterns to predict a firm's future labor needs
Judgmental forecasting - Answers relies on managers' expertise to predict a firm's future
employment needs
Top-down judgmental forecasting - Answers relies on the organization's leaders and their
experience and knowledge of their industry and company to make predictions about the firm's
future talent needs. These estimates then become the talent goals for lower levels. In some
cases, budgets may determine the firm's targeted headcount.
Bottom-up judgmental forecasting - Answers starts with lower-level managers' estimates of the
firm's future talent needs. Each manager's estimates of the number and types of employees he
or she will need are modified and consolidated as they move up the organization's hierarchy.
Top managers then review and formalize the estimates.
Talent inventories - Answers databases summarizing each employee's competencies,
qualifications, languages spoken, and anything else that can help the company understand how
the employee can contribute
replacement charts - Answers graphically shows current jobholders, possible successors, and
each successor's readiness to assume the job