Chapter 1: Systems, frames, and transitions
1. Introduction
1.1 ‘Global energy politics’
Global perspective
- The energy sector is truly international: 30% of world merchandise trade
- No single country is autarkic
- Domestic decisions have international consequences, and vice versa
A broad ‘systems’ perspective on energy
The socio-technical system to transport and convert energy sources and carriers into energy services
Politics, not just policy
- ‘Who gets what, when and how?’
- Not limited to activities of the state
Energy is not just another commodity: it is a strategic good for the survival of regimes, a critical input factor for
the world economy that can shift large swaths of weal around, a massive source of pollution, and a major cause
of social goods and evils.
This makes energy a key driver of the pursuit of wealth and power in world politics
o Energy questions are deeply political
Have distributional consequences: creates winners and losers
2. A critical juncture in energy politics
+ Renewables
The story of the modern energy system over the past two decades is primarily one of rapidly increasing use of
fosil fuels.
1. During the Industrial Revolution: coal gradually replaced wood and biomass
2. After WW2: coals was overtaken by oil
Natural gas has also increased globally, but as of now, oil stills reigns supreme.
- Fossil fuels still supply around 80% of worldwide primary energy consumption
- Renewables are among the fastest-growing energy sources in recent years, but since they start from a
very low base, it takes considerable time for them to make a mark on the global energy mix
1
,! The energy shifts on the figure represent energy additions > energy transitions
2.1 The fossil fuel era
- Produced great wealth and advancements in convenience, comfort, and cleanliness
- Sustained a x7 in population growth and x70 in global production over the last 200 years
- Stored in finite reserves that are geographically concentrated, raising energy security concerns for
countries that rely on imports
Today, we are witnessing the growing imprint of this ‘great acceleration’ on our environment and the possibility
that our economy is transgressing our ‘planetary boundaries’.
Advantages of fossil fuels
- High energy densities, particularly oil
- Easy to store and transport, particularly coal and oil
- Versatile in their applications
o Example natural gas: used for cooking, heating, power generation, mobility, and as a chemical
feedstock
- Relatively cheap, but often because their full environmental and health impacts are not well reflected
in their price
2.2 Four major transformations in global energy politics
Transformation 1: Climate change
- If unfettered, is posing an existential threat to life as we know it on our planet
- Urgent need to decarbonize the global economy
o Main culprit: massive burning of fossil fuels – account for 80% of CO 2 emissions
- Climate change is mostly an energy problem à to fix it we need to change the way we produce and
consume energy
Transformation 2: Rise of China
- Has sent shockwaves through world energy markets
o World’s largest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter
o Biggest producer of renewable technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles
o Created 65 million new jobs over past 5 years
- The future of our energy system therefore hinges to a large extent on the decisions made by China
China sets the shape of the market. It represents a larger category of populous, emerging economies like India,
Brazil, and Indonesia, who are becoming important engines of global energy demand growth.
The center of gravity in global energy politics is shifting from West to East
Transformation 3: Major transition to renewable energy
- Thanks to technological advances and dramatic falls in cost
- Is not just a shift of one fuel to another
o Geographically concentrated stocks of energy à ubiquitous flows of energy, that are available
in one form or another in most countries and cannot be exhausted
o Renewables can be deployed at almost any scale and lend themselves better to decentralized
forms of energy production and consumption
o Nearly 0 marginal costs, and some of them (like solar and wind) enjoy cost reductions of
more than 20% for every doubling of capacity
2
,This thus involves a deep transformation of energy systems which is likely to affect global trade patterns, blur
the distinction between producers and consumers, and create new patterns of political authority along the
decentralized deployment of renewable technologies.
Transformation 4: Major push to eradicate energy poverty
This is embodied in universal energy access via initiatives such as Sustainable Energy for All and the Sustainable
Development Goal 7.
3. The scope and approach of this book
The goals is to engage a three-way relationship between
(1) The world energy system, characterized by the 4 major transformations
(2) Relations between countries
(3) Domestic energy politics and governance
Two pillars of the analytical approach
(1) System thinking
(2) Contested frames, where each frame comes with a different problem definition, diagnosis of the
causes, and suggested remedy
a. Neo-mercantilism
b. Market liberalism
c. Environmentalism
d. Social justice
4. The science of energy
Energy = the process of producing change (of motion, temperature, composition) in an affected system (an
organism, a machine, the planet)
Many forms of energy
- Thermal energy: heat
- Kinetic or mechanical energy: motion
- Electromagnetic energy: light
- Chemical energy: fuels and food
Energy can be converted from one form into another, example
- Light from the sun converted by plants into stored chemical energy (sugar)
- Plants consumed by animals converted into mechanical energy: horses that pull a wagon
- In other cases, energy remains stored in the plant for thousands of years, eventually becoming fossil
fuel that might be converted into thermal energy through combustion
First law of thermodynamic: law of conservation
The total amount of energy in the universe remains constant
o No energy is lost, disappears, as one energy is converted from one form to another
o Energy cannot be created or destroyed; it can only be converted
Second law of thermodynamics: law of entropy
- Although energy is always conserved across conversions from one form to another, it becomes less
useful
- There is a natural tendency for things to degenerate into increasing disorder
3
,In closed systems, things go from low entropy (more order) to high entropy (more disorder) – never the
opposite. All processes of change are irreversible. Example:
- A lump of coal is a highly ordered (low entropy) form of energy. When combusted, it produces heat, a
dispersed (high entropy) form of energy
- The sequence is irreversible: the heat and gases that are released during burning of coal cannot ever
be reconstituted as a lump of coal
All exchanges of energy are subject to inefficiencies, such as friction or heat losses, which increase the entropy
of the system. Thus, the efficiency of any energy conversion process will always be less than 100%.
4.1 The metric system
The basic unit of energy is the joule (J)
- 1J = the work done by a force of 1 Newton traveling over a distance of 1 meter
- Not a very convenient metric for expressing the total energy use, therefore, other metrics are more
commonly used
o Calorie = the energy required to raise the temperature of 1 gram of water 1 degree
Centigrade
o British thermal unit (BTU)
o Kilowatt-hour (kWh)
o Tons of oil equivalent (toe)
- Data can be easily converted from one metric into the other
This does not imply that all forms of energy are equivalent and interchangeable. Conversion entails losses.
Example:
- Fossil fuel- powered power plants transform chemical energy into electrical energy with an efficiency
of 40%
- That is why multipliers are used when all the different forms of energy are put in the same units
o Example: electricity from hydropower is rated being worth 2.5 times more than the chemical
energy in oil
o In other words, 1kWh of hydroelectricity = 2.5 kWh of oil
Energy ≠ power
- The matric unit of power is the watt (W)
- 1W = 1J per second
o 100-watt incandescent light bulb uses 100 joules of energy every second
o The higher the wattage, the brighter the light, but also the more energy it uses
- A measurement is typical for the energy used
o Watt à light bulb
o Kilowatts (kW) à household
o Megawatts (MW) à neighborhood or a small town
o Gigawatts (GW) à large cities or provinces
o Terawatts (TW) – the single-moment needs of a highly developed continent such as North
America or Europe
Power is about the rate with which we use or produce energy
To say something about the total amount of electricity we use or produce, we need to switch metrics. Electrical
energy is typically expressed in watt-hour (Wh) and its multiples: kWh, MWh, GWh, TWh, each one being a
1000 x larger than the one before.
4
,This does not imply the energy was used in one hour!
Energy and power allow us to describe the difference between two windmills, each with a capacity of 1 MW,
but a utilization rate of 10 vs. 30%.
- Difference in utilization rate could be due to the face that one windmill is located in a place where
there are more consistent winds than the other one
- In this situation:
o The windmills have the same capacity (power)
o But one generates 3 x as much energy throughout the year as the other
4.2 Sources vs. carriers
- Primary energy sources are available in nature
- Energy carriers have to be produced
Example: crude oil can be found in nature but has to be processed in refineries to produce fuel products such as
gasoline and diesel.
- Renewable = they cannot be exhausted
- Non-renewable
o Fossil fuel is a non-renewable source because the time required to form them through natural
processes is measured in the tens of millions of years
o At our current rate of use, existing stocks of fossil fuels are being depleted much quicker than
they can be replenished through natural processes
5. A systems perspective on energy
A systems approach involves identifying the characteristics of the system in question – its elements,
interconnections, and overall function – and examining the interactions between them.
This system of systems can be broken down into three layers:
A. Supply infrastructure
Standard accounts of energy security often stop here and restrict their focus to the supply infrastructure. The
International Energy Association (IEA), for example, defines energy security as the ‘uninterrupted availability of
energy sources at an affordable price’.
- = hardware of the supply infrastructure
5
, - Could lead to the belief that making an energy transition is simply about switching from one energy
source to another (e.g. closing a coal-fired power plant and replacing it with windmills and solar
panels)
B. Demand infrastructure
Helpful concept: energy services
o Strictly speaking, there is no demand for energy
Primary energy sources are of little use to people
o Ultimately, people want the SERVICES that energy can deliver
Mobility Cars, trains, planes, roads, urban design, …
Lighting Compact fluorescent light bulbs, LED lighting, …
Heating / cooling Gas boilers, fuel oil boilers, heat pumps, insulation, airco’s, …
Refrigeration Fridges
Cooking Gas furnaces, induction, propane furnace, charcoal gril,…
Information / communication Smartphones, laptops, Netflix, TV,…
This shifts attention to the demand side and prime movers (= the technology that converts primary and
secondary fuels into useful and usable energy services; such as cars and their combustion engines, lamps,
electric appliances and furnaces).
C. Social infrastructure
= the less tangible aspects of our energy systems
6
1. Introduction
1.1 ‘Global energy politics’
Global perspective
- The energy sector is truly international: 30% of world merchandise trade
- No single country is autarkic
- Domestic decisions have international consequences, and vice versa
A broad ‘systems’ perspective on energy
The socio-technical system to transport and convert energy sources and carriers into energy services
Politics, not just policy
- ‘Who gets what, when and how?’
- Not limited to activities of the state
Energy is not just another commodity: it is a strategic good for the survival of regimes, a critical input factor for
the world economy that can shift large swaths of weal around, a massive source of pollution, and a major cause
of social goods and evils.
This makes energy a key driver of the pursuit of wealth and power in world politics
o Energy questions are deeply political
Have distributional consequences: creates winners and losers
2. A critical juncture in energy politics
+ Renewables
The story of the modern energy system over the past two decades is primarily one of rapidly increasing use of
fosil fuels.
1. During the Industrial Revolution: coal gradually replaced wood and biomass
2. After WW2: coals was overtaken by oil
Natural gas has also increased globally, but as of now, oil stills reigns supreme.
- Fossil fuels still supply around 80% of worldwide primary energy consumption
- Renewables are among the fastest-growing energy sources in recent years, but since they start from a
very low base, it takes considerable time for them to make a mark on the global energy mix
1
,! The energy shifts on the figure represent energy additions > energy transitions
2.1 The fossil fuel era
- Produced great wealth and advancements in convenience, comfort, and cleanliness
- Sustained a x7 in population growth and x70 in global production over the last 200 years
- Stored in finite reserves that are geographically concentrated, raising energy security concerns for
countries that rely on imports
Today, we are witnessing the growing imprint of this ‘great acceleration’ on our environment and the possibility
that our economy is transgressing our ‘planetary boundaries’.
Advantages of fossil fuels
- High energy densities, particularly oil
- Easy to store and transport, particularly coal and oil
- Versatile in their applications
o Example natural gas: used for cooking, heating, power generation, mobility, and as a chemical
feedstock
- Relatively cheap, but often because their full environmental and health impacts are not well reflected
in their price
2.2 Four major transformations in global energy politics
Transformation 1: Climate change
- If unfettered, is posing an existential threat to life as we know it on our planet
- Urgent need to decarbonize the global economy
o Main culprit: massive burning of fossil fuels – account for 80% of CO 2 emissions
- Climate change is mostly an energy problem à to fix it we need to change the way we produce and
consume energy
Transformation 2: Rise of China
- Has sent shockwaves through world energy markets
o World’s largest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter
o Biggest producer of renewable technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles
o Created 65 million new jobs over past 5 years
- The future of our energy system therefore hinges to a large extent on the decisions made by China
China sets the shape of the market. It represents a larger category of populous, emerging economies like India,
Brazil, and Indonesia, who are becoming important engines of global energy demand growth.
The center of gravity in global energy politics is shifting from West to East
Transformation 3: Major transition to renewable energy
- Thanks to technological advances and dramatic falls in cost
- Is not just a shift of one fuel to another
o Geographically concentrated stocks of energy à ubiquitous flows of energy, that are available
in one form or another in most countries and cannot be exhausted
o Renewables can be deployed at almost any scale and lend themselves better to decentralized
forms of energy production and consumption
o Nearly 0 marginal costs, and some of them (like solar and wind) enjoy cost reductions of
more than 20% for every doubling of capacity
2
,This thus involves a deep transformation of energy systems which is likely to affect global trade patterns, blur
the distinction between producers and consumers, and create new patterns of political authority along the
decentralized deployment of renewable technologies.
Transformation 4: Major push to eradicate energy poverty
This is embodied in universal energy access via initiatives such as Sustainable Energy for All and the Sustainable
Development Goal 7.
3. The scope and approach of this book
The goals is to engage a three-way relationship between
(1) The world energy system, characterized by the 4 major transformations
(2) Relations between countries
(3) Domestic energy politics and governance
Two pillars of the analytical approach
(1) System thinking
(2) Contested frames, where each frame comes with a different problem definition, diagnosis of the
causes, and suggested remedy
a. Neo-mercantilism
b. Market liberalism
c. Environmentalism
d. Social justice
4. The science of energy
Energy = the process of producing change (of motion, temperature, composition) in an affected system (an
organism, a machine, the planet)
Many forms of energy
- Thermal energy: heat
- Kinetic or mechanical energy: motion
- Electromagnetic energy: light
- Chemical energy: fuels and food
Energy can be converted from one form into another, example
- Light from the sun converted by plants into stored chemical energy (sugar)
- Plants consumed by animals converted into mechanical energy: horses that pull a wagon
- In other cases, energy remains stored in the plant for thousands of years, eventually becoming fossil
fuel that might be converted into thermal energy through combustion
First law of thermodynamic: law of conservation
The total amount of energy in the universe remains constant
o No energy is lost, disappears, as one energy is converted from one form to another
o Energy cannot be created or destroyed; it can only be converted
Second law of thermodynamics: law of entropy
- Although energy is always conserved across conversions from one form to another, it becomes less
useful
- There is a natural tendency for things to degenerate into increasing disorder
3
,In closed systems, things go from low entropy (more order) to high entropy (more disorder) – never the
opposite. All processes of change are irreversible. Example:
- A lump of coal is a highly ordered (low entropy) form of energy. When combusted, it produces heat, a
dispersed (high entropy) form of energy
- The sequence is irreversible: the heat and gases that are released during burning of coal cannot ever
be reconstituted as a lump of coal
All exchanges of energy are subject to inefficiencies, such as friction or heat losses, which increase the entropy
of the system. Thus, the efficiency of any energy conversion process will always be less than 100%.
4.1 The metric system
The basic unit of energy is the joule (J)
- 1J = the work done by a force of 1 Newton traveling over a distance of 1 meter
- Not a very convenient metric for expressing the total energy use, therefore, other metrics are more
commonly used
o Calorie = the energy required to raise the temperature of 1 gram of water 1 degree
Centigrade
o British thermal unit (BTU)
o Kilowatt-hour (kWh)
o Tons of oil equivalent (toe)
- Data can be easily converted from one metric into the other
This does not imply that all forms of energy are equivalent and interchangeable. Conversion entails losses.
Example:
- Fossil fuel- powered power plants transform chemical energy into electrical energy with an efficiency
of 40%
- That is why multipliers are used when all the different forms of energy are put in the same units
o Example: electricity from hydropower is rated being worth 2.5 times more than the chemical
energy in oil
o In other words, 1kWh of hydroelectricity = 2.5 kWh of oil
Energy ≠ power
- The matric unit of power is the watt (W)
- 1W = 1J per second
o 100-watt incandescent light bulb uses 100 joules of energy every second
o The higher the wattage, the brighter the light, but also the more energy it uses
- A measurement is typical for the energy used
o Watt à light bulb
o Kilowatts (kW) à household
o Megawatts (MW) à neighborhood or a small town
o Gigawatts (GW) à large cities or provinces
o Terawatts (TW) – the single-moment needs of a highly developed continent such as North
America or Europe
Power is about the rate with which we use or produce energy
To say something about the total amount of electricity we use or produce, we need to switch metrics. Electrical
energy is typically expressed in watt-hour (Wh) and its multiples: kWh, MWh, GWh, TWh, each one being a
1000 x larger than the one before.
4
,This does not imply the energy was used in one hour!
Energy and power allow us to describe the difference between two windmills, each with a capacity of 1 MW,
but a utilization rate of 10 vs. 30%.
- Difference in utilization rate could be due to the face that one windmill is located in a place where
there are more consistent winds than the other one
- In this situation:
o The windmills have the same capacity (power)
o But one generates 3 x as much energy throughout the year as the other
4.2 Sources vs. carriers
- Primary energy sources are available in nature
- Energy carriers have to be produced
Example: crude oil can be found in nature but has to be processed in refineries to produce fuel products such as
gasoline and diesel.
- Renewable = they cannot be exhausted
- Non-renewable
o Fossil fuel is a non-renewable source because the time required to form them through natural
processes is measured in the tens of millions of years
o At our current rate of use, existing stocks of fossil fuels are being depleted much quicker than
they can be replenished through natural processes
5. A systems perspective on energy
A systems approach involves identifying the characteristics of the system in question – its elements,
interconnections, and overall function – and examining the interactions between them.
This system of systems can be broken down into three layers:
A. Supply infrastructure
Standard accounts of energy security often stop here and restrict their focus to the supply infrastructure. The
International Energy Association (IEA), for example, defines energy security as the ‘uninterrupted availability of
energy sources at an affordable price’.
- = hardware of the supply infrastructure
5
, - Could lead to the belief that making an energy transition is simply about switching from one energy
source to another (e.g. closing a coal-fired power plant and replacing it with windmills and solar
panels)
B. Demand infrastructure
Helpful concept: energy services
o Strictly speaking, there is no demand for energy
Primary energy sources are of little use to people
o Ultimately, people want the SERVICES that energy can deliver
Mobility Cars, trains, planes, roads, urban design, …
Lighting Compact fluorescent light bulbs, LED lighting, …
Heating / cooling Gas boilers, fuel oil boilers, heat pumps, insulation, airco’s, …
Refrigeration Fridges
Cooking Gas furnaces, induction, propane furnace, charcoal gril,…
Information / communication Smartphones, laptops, Netflix, TV,…
This shifts attention to the demand side and prime movers (= the technology that converts primary and
secondary fuels into useful and usable energy services; such as cars and their combustion engines, lamps,
electric appliances and furnaces).
C. Social infrastructure
= the less tangible aspects of our energy systems
6
