Living Longer: Historical and Projected
Life Expectancy in the United States,
1960 to 2060
Population Estimates and Projections
Current Population Reports
By Lauren Medina, Shannon Sabo, and Jonathan Vespa
P25-1145
Issued February 2020
INTRODUCTION tables and life expectancies to be published by the
Census Bureau.1
Over the last four decades, life expectancy in the
United States has largely risen, although certain Projections of life expectancy can provide essential
groups have experienced slight decreases in their life information on population aging, guide the future
expectancy, gaining the attention of mortality experts of U.S. public health, and gauge potential impacts
and the media. Recent headlines draw attention to the on health care systems. As a result, they can help
role of the opioid epidemic in this unusual downturn improve our understanding of social welfare and bet-
in life expectancy among non-Hispanic White adults. ter inform policy planning. In addition to presenting
In considering what the future of the U.S. population mortality patterns for the total population, depict-
may look like, we must address historical and recent ing life expectancy patterns by characteristics, such
shifts in life expectancy and understand that these as sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity, provides a
shifts are the result of complex social, cultural, bio- more accurate story of current and future population
logical, and economic forces. Looking forward, we health within the United States.
seek to uncover how life expectancy might change
in coming decades and assess how these changes REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
might look across the various race, ethnic, and nativity •• Americans are projected to have longer life expec-
groups that make up the U.S. population. tancies in coming decades. By 2060, life expec-
Throughout this report, we use the U.S. Census tancy for the total population is projected to
Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections to increase by about six years, from 79.7 in 2017 to
examine potential mortality and life expectancy 85.6 in 2060. 2
changes in the coming decades. To provide historical •• Increases in life expectancy are projected to be
context, we draw extensively on life expectancy data larger for men than women, although women are
from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). still projected to live longer than men do, on aver-
The report includes projections of life expectancy age, in 2060.
from 2017 to 2060 and explores projected differences •• All racial and ethnic groups are projected to have
in mortality for men and women and for different race longer life expectancies in coming decades, but
and Hispanic origin groups in the United States. The the greatest gains will be to native-born men who
report also focuses on projected life expectancy dif- are non-Hispanic Black alone and non-Hispanic
ferences between the native-born and foreign-born
1
The Census Bureau reviewed this data product for unauthorized
populations. The mortality projections covered in
disclosure of confidential information and approved the disclosure
this report are based on the first nativity-specific life avoidance practices applied to this release. CBDRB-FY19-245.
2
Official life expectancy measures from the NCHS were lower
than the projected life expectancy values for 2017. Despite recently
observed decreases in life expectancy, these projections assume
continued increases in life expectancy.
, American Indian or Alaska origin group in the United •• In 2060, foreign-born men and
Native alone. States in 2017. They are pro- women are projected to con-
•• Among the native-born popula- jected to continue to have the tinue having longer life expec-
tion, Hispanic women had the longest life expectancy, 87.8 tancies than their native-born
longest life expectancy, 83.3 years, in 2060. peers, regardless of race or
years, of any race or Hispanic Hispanic origin.
PROJECTING MORTALITY BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Nativity is a demographic characteristic that iden- classifications of vital records over time. Because
tifies if an individual is native-born or foreign-born. current population estimates adhere to revised
The U.S. Census Bureau uses the following defini- 1997 Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
tions for nativity status: standards for race and ethnicity, which allow for
the reporting of more than one race, estimates
Native-born, or native-born population: anyone
for multiple-race people must be bridged back
who is a U.S. citizen at birth, including people born
to single-race categories in accordance with 1977
in the United States, Puerto Rico, a U.S. Island
OMB standards to ensure historical continuity.
Area (Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern
Furthermore, due to concerns about the quality of
Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands), or
race reporting in death data over the time series,
born abroad to a U.S. citizen parent or parents.
non-Hispanic race groups with similar mortality
Foreign-born, or foreign-born population: anyone patterns were collapsed into two categories.1 As a
who is not a U.S. citizen at birth, which includes result, mortality rates were produced for three race
noncitizen U.S. nationals, naturalized U.S. citizens, and Hispanic origin groups for the projected data:
lawful permanent residents (immigrants), tempo-
Group 1: Non-Hispanic White alone, non-Hispanic
rary migrants (such as foreign students), humani-
Asian alone, and non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or
tarian migrants (such as refugees and asylees), and
Other Pacific Islander alone.
unauthorized migrants.
Group 2: Non-Hispanic Black or African American2
For the purposes of the 2017 National Population
alone and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska
Projections, those born in the United States or in
Native alone.
U.S. territories are considered native-born while
those born elsewhere are considered foreign-born. Group 3: Hispanic or Latino3 (of any race).
One of the innovations in the 2017 National Throughout this report, projected mortality trends
Population Projections series was the inclusion of by race and ethnicity will be based on these group-
nativity as a characteristic in the mortality mea- ings. When observed or historical National Center
sures. Similar to projecting mortality by sex, race, for Health Statistics data and other citations are
and Hispanic origin, projecting mortality rates used, these groupings do not apply.
by nativity requires additional information from
Note: For more information on how mortality
administrative records, specifically, about the place
projections were calculated in the 2017 National
of birth of the deceased. This addition improves
Population Projections, please see the full
the population projections by accounting for the
projections methodology statement at
different mortality patterns of the native-born and
<https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys
foreign-born.
/popproj/technical-documentation/methodology
The 2017 National Population Projections use /methodstatement17.pdf>.
historical vital statistics data to inform projected 1
Although non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native
mortality rates by sex, nativity, race, and Hispanic alone deaths tend to be misclassified more often than any other
race and ethnic group (Arias, Heron, and Hakes, 2016), no adjust-
origin. The denominators of the mortality rates ments are made to the death data to specifically account for this.
contain bridged population estimates to main- 2
Throughout this report, “Black” and “Black or African
American” may be used interchangeably.
tain continuity with race and Hispanic origin 3
Throughout this report, “Hispanic” and “Hispanic or Latino”
may be used interchangeably.
2 U.S. Census Bureau
, Figure 1.
Historical and Projected Life Expectancy for the Total U.S. Population at Birth: 1960–2060
Life expectancy at age 0 (in years)
90
Projected
85
80
Female
Total
75
Male
70
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections, 2015–2060, and National Center for Health Statistics Life Tables,
1960–2014, <www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf>.
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED between what has already hap- about three years from 70.8 to
GAINS TO LIFE EXPECTANCY pened and what is projected 73.7 years. Such a large increase in
to happen in the future. In the a relatively short period is attrib-
Although life expectancy
graphs, we denote the observed uted to increases in vaccinations,
continues to rise, increases have
slowed in recent years. and projected portions of the continued decreases in infec-
trends. tious diseases and cardiovascular
This report provides a unique mortality, and the effectiveness
opportunity to analyze changes in Between 1960 and 2015, life
of prevention programs related
life expectancy over the 100-year expectancy for the total popula-
to smoking, alcohol consumption,
period from 1960 to 2060. The tion in the United States increased
and promotion of physical activity
trends from 1960 to 2014 reflect by almost 10 years from 69.7
(Hinman et al., 2011; Klenk et
changes that have actually hap- years in 1960 to 79.4 years in
al., 2016).
pened (observed) and are drawn 2015. Looking ahead, gains to
from NCHS reports. The trends total life expectancy are projected The rise in life expectancy has not
from 2015 to 2060 are projected, to increase only 6.1 years from been continuous or universal. Data
given current patterns in mor- 2016 to 2060 (Figure 1). By 2060, from NCHS (Arias and Xu, 2019)
tality illustrated in the Census total life expectancy in the United show that in 2015, the U.S. total
Bureau’s 2017 National Population States is projected to reach an population saw its first decrease
Projections. While we report the all-time high of 85.6 years. Since in life expectancy (by 0.2 years)
overall changes in life expectancy 1960, the largest gains in life since 1993. These data also show
from 1960 to 2060 as one period, expectancy occurred between slight declines occurring among
it is important to distinguish 1970 and 1980—an increase of the non-Hispanic White alone,
U.S. Census Bureau 3
Life Expectancy in the United States,
1960 to 2060
Population Estimates and Projections
Current Population Reports
By Lauren Medina, Shannon Sabo, and Jonathan Vespa
P25-1145
Issued February 2020
INTRODUCTION tables and life expectancies to be published by the
Census Bureau.1
Over the last four decades, life expectancy in the
United States has largely risen, although certain Projections of life expectancy can provide essential
groups have experienced slight decreases in their life information on population aging, guide the future
expectancy, gaining the attention of mortality experts of U.S. public health, and gauge potential impacts
and the media. Recent headlines draw attention to the on health care systems. As a result, they can help
role of the opioid epidemic in this unusual downturn improve our understanding of social welfare and bet-
in life expectancy among non-Hispanic White adults. ter inform policy planning. In addition to presenting
In considering what the future of the U.S. population mortality patterns for the total population, depict-
may look like, we must address historical and recent ing life expectancy patterns by characteristics, such
shifts in life expectancy and understand that these as sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity, provides a
shifts are the result of complex social, cultural, bio- more accurate story of current and future population
logical, and economic forces. Looking forward, we health within the United States.
seek to uncover how life expectancy might change
in coming decades and assess how these changes REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
might look across the various race, ethnic, and nativity •• Americans are projected to have longer life expec-
groups that make up the U.S. population. tancies in coming decades. By 2060, life expec-
Throughout this report, we use the U.S. Census tancy for the total population is projected to
Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections to increase by about six years, from 79.7 in 2017 to
examine potential mortality and life expectancy 85.6 in 2060. 2
changes in the coming decades. To provide historical •• Increases in life expectancy are projected to be
context, we draw extensively on life expectancy data larger for men than women, although women are
from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). still projected to live longer than men do, on aver-
The report includes projections of life expectancy age, in 2060.
from 2017 to 2060 and explores projected differences •• All racial and ethnic groups are projected to have
in mortality for men and women and for different race longer life expectancies in coming decades, but
and Hispanic origin groups in the United States. The the greatest gains will be to native-born men who
report also focuses on projected life expectancy dif- are non-Hispanic Black alone and non-Hispanic
ferences between the native-born and foreign-born
1
The Census Bureau reviewed this data product for unauthorized
populations. The mortality projections covered in
disclosure of confidential information and approved the disclosure
this report are based on the first nativity-specific life avoidance practices applied to this release. CBDRB-FY19-245.
2
Official life expectancy measures from the NCHS were lower
than the projected life expectancy values for 2017. Despite recently
observed decreases in life expectancy, these projections assume
continued increases in life expectancy.
, American Indian or Alaska origin group in the United •• In 2060, foreign-born men and
Native alone. States in 2017. They are pro- women are projected to con-
•• Among the native-born popula- jected to continue to have the tinue having longer life expec-
tion, Hispanic women had the longest life expectancy, 87.8 tancies than their native-born
longest life expectancy, 83.3 years, in 2060. peers, regardless of race or
years, of any race or Hispanic Hispanic origin.
PROJECTING MORTALITY BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Nativity is a demographic characteristic that iden- classifications of vital records over time. Because
tifies if an individual is native-born or foreign-born. current population estimates adhere to revised
The U.S. Census Bureau uses the following defini- 1997 Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
tions for nativity status: standards for race and ethnicity, which allow for
the reporting of more than one race, estimates
Native-born, or native-born population: anyone
for multiple-race people must be bridged back
who is a U.S. citizen at birth, including people born
to single-race categories in accordance with 1977
in the United States, Puerto Rico, a U.S. Island
OMB standards to ensure historical continuity.
Area (Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern
Furthermore, due to concerns about the quality of
Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands), or
race reporting in death data over the time series,
born abroad to a U.S. citizen parent or parents.
non-Hispanic race groups with similar mortality
Foreign-born, or foreign-born population: anyone patterns were collapsed into two categories.1 As a
who is not a U.S. citizen at birth, which includes result, mortality rates were produced for three race
noncitizen U.S. nationals, naturalized U.S. citizens, and Hispanic origin groups for the projected data:
lawful permanent residents (immigrants), tempo-
Group 1: Non-Hispanic White alone, non-Hispanic
rary migrants (such as foreign students), humani-
Asian alone, and non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or
tarian migrants (such as refugees and asylees), and
Other Pacific Islander alone.
unauthorized migrants.
Group 2: Non-Hispanic Black or African American2
For the purposes of the 2017 National Population
alone and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska
Projections, those born in the United States or in
Native alone.
U.S. territories are considered native-born while
those born elsewhere are considered foreign-born. Group 3: Hispanic or Latino3 (of any race).
One of the innovations in the 2017 National Throughout this report, projected mortality trends
Population Projections series was the inclusion of by race and ethnicity will be based on these group-
nativity as a characteristic in the mortality mea- ings. When observed or historical National Center
sures. Similar to projecting mortality by sex, race, for Health Statistics data and other citations are
and Hispanic origin, projecting mortality rates used, these groupings do not apply.
by nativity requires additional information from
Note: For more information on how mortality
administrative records, specifically, about the place
projections were calculated in the 2017 National
of birth of the deceased. This addition improves
Population Projections, please see the full
the population projections by accounting for the
projections methodology statement at
different mortality patterns of the native-born and
<https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys
foreign-born.
/popproj/technical-documentation/methodology
The 2017 National Population Projections use /methodstatement17.pdf>.
historical vital statistics data to inform projected 1
Although non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native
mortality rates by sex, nativity, race, and Hispanic alone deaths tend to be misclassified more often than any other
race and ethnic group (Arias, Heron, and Hakes, 2016), no adjust-
origin. The denominators of the mortality rates ments are made to the death data to specifically account for this.
contain bridged population estimates to main- 2
Throughout this report, “Black” and “Black or African
American” may be used interchangeably.
tain continuity with race and Hispanic origin 3
Throughout this report, “Hispanic” and “Hispanic or Latino”
may be used interchangeably.
2 U.S. Census Bureau
, Figure 1.
Historical and Projected Life Expectancy for the Total U.S. Population at Birth: 1960–2060
Life expectancy at age 0 (in years)
90
Projected
85
80
Female
Total
75
Male
70
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections, 2015–2060, and National Center for Health Statistics Life Tables,
1960–2014, <www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf>.
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED between what has already hap- about three years from 70.8 to
GAINS TO LIFE EXPECTANCY pened and what is projected 73.7 years. Such a large increase in
to happen in the future. In the a relatively short period is attrib-
Although life expectancy
graphs, we denote the observed uted to increases in vaccinations,
continues to rise, increases have
slowed in recent years. and projected portions of the continued decreases in infec-
trends. tious diseases and cardiovascular
This report provides a unique mortality, and the effectiveness
opportunity to analyze changes in Between 1960 and 2015, life
of prevention programs related
life expectancy over the 100-year expectancy for the total popula-
to smoking, alcohol consumption,
period from 1960 to 2060. The tion in the United States increased
and promotion of physical activity
trends from 1960 to 2014 reflect by almost 10 years from 69.7
(Hinman et al., 2011; Klenk et
changes that have actually hap- years in 1960 to 79.4 years in
al., 2016).
pened (observed) and are drawn 2015. Looking ahead, gains to
from NCHS reports. The trends total life expectancy are projected The rise in life expectancy has not
from 2015 to 2060 are projected, to increase only 6.1 years from been continuous or universal. Data
given current patterns in mor- 2016 to 2060 (Figure 1). By 2060, from NCHS (Arias and Xu, 2019)
tality illustrated in the Census total life expectancy in the United show that in 2015, the U.S. total
Bureau’s 2017 National Population States is projected to reach an population saw its first decrease
Projections. While we report the all-time high of 85.6 years. Since in life expectancy (by 0.2 years)
overall changes in life expectancy 1960, the largest gains in life since 1993. These data also show
from 1960 to 2060 as one period, expectancy occurred between slight declines occurring among
it is important to distinguish 1970 and 1980—an increase of the non-Hispanic White alone,
U.S. Census Bureau 3
