ATMS 111 Test 3 With
Complete Solution
Climate Models - ANSWER predict the climate using computers; incorporates
GHG concentration, ocean dynamics, energy balance, oceans, and sea ice
Why are climate models important? - ANSWER help us understand possible
future climates
Weather Prediction Trends - ANSWER have improved drastically in the past
60 years in terms of accuracy and extensiveness
Weather Forecasting vs. Climate Forecasting - ANSWER Weather model
goals= predict weather; climate model goals= predict climate; time range=
days; time range= years; relevance of initial conditions= high (taken from
weather balloon networks and satellites); relevance of initial conditions= low
(only ocean and sea ice really matter); importance of GHG emissions
Chaos - ANSWER when small changes make a big and unpredictable
difference
The Butterfly Effect - ANSWER we can't observe every butterfly, so weather
forecasts can't predict the exact path/strength of storms after 2 weeks--
limits weather forecasts, but not climate forecasts since they focus on
seasons rather than initial observations
Global Climate Modeling - ANSWER composed of 1) fluid motion equations
on a rotating sphere (mass is neither created nor destroyed; heating/cooling
,changes temperature; forces change momentum); 2) heat sources (shortwave
and longwave radiation; condensation; surface fluxes); 3) need to
parameterize small-scale processes (clouds, moist convection)
GCM Grid Size - ANSWER 100 km x 100 km (for a sea, land, atmosphere, or
ocean grid cell)
Sea Ice Projections - ANSWER went down faster than predicted by any
models
Climate Model Forecasts - ANSWER have been strenuously tested and have
been shown to give reliable results-- successful predictions examples= more
warming at night than day, wet gets wetter, expansion of deserts, least
warming around Antarctica, most warming around Arctic,
Climate Scientists Agree on Climate Change - ANSWER many people are
misinformed-- only 48% believe there's consensus among scientists that the
Earth is warming
Science Rules! - ANSWER 1) required to describe methods exactly, mention
all assumptions made and why-- anyone should be able to replicate
experiment ;2) don't claim your study says more than it does (correlation is
not causation)
Peer Review - ANSWER peers look over a paper to make sure it follows good
scientific practices and that the argument makes sense + determines if a
scientific paper can be published
Self-Proclaimed Think Tanks - ANSWER often funded by oil and gas
companies-- exist to help achieve a desired goal, use disinformation and
scare tactics to do this, along with creating uncertainty about climate change
example= Global Climate Coalition (GCC), Competitive Enterprise Institute
, (CEI)
Typical Arguments of Climate Change Skeptics - ANSWER the atmosphere
isn't warming; the warming is real, but it's natural variability; no link between
human activity and carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere; models are
uncertain; projected changes are so small that it doesn't matter; climate
scientists say this to make money
The Sociology of Global Warming - ANSWER people who will lose
jobs/profits due to climate change mitigation; people who don't care because
they won't have to deal with it; people with political or ethical views against
climate change
The Predicament - ANSWER Some warming locked in even if we keep CO2
concentrations exactly at today's levels
Is stabilizing emissions enough? - ANSWER NO! flattening out CO2 emissions
still leads to large increases in CO2 concentrations
Scientific Assessments - ANSWER for important societal issues, assessments
are made about the whole state of the science-- example= IPCC for climate
change
How to stabilize concentrations - ANSWER requires immediate and drastic
emission cuts, along with taking additional CO2 out of the atmosphere
Alternative Energy Sources - ANSWER renewable energy sources generated
from natural sources such as solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, and hydroelectric,
and nuclear (not renewable, but also doesn't emit CO2)
US Energy Sources (2014) - ANSWER Oil (35%), Natural Gas, Coal (18%),
Renewables (10%), Nuclear (8%); Oil for transportation, coal for electricity
Complete Solution
Climate Models - ANSWER predict the climate using computers; incorporates
GHG concentration, ocean dynamics, energy balance, oceans, and sea ice
Why are climate models important? - ANSWER help us understand possible
future climates
Weather Prediction Trends - ANSWER have improved drastically in the past
60 years in terms of accuracy and extensiveness
Weather Forecasting vs. Climate Forecasting - ANSWER Weather model
goals= predict weather; climate model goals= predict climate; time range=
days; time range= years; relevance of initial conditions= high (taken from
weather balloon networks and satellites); relevance of initial conditions= low
(only ocean and sea ice really matter); importance of GHG emissions
Chaos - ANSWER when small changes make a big and unpredictable
difference
The Butterfly Effect - ANSWER we can't observe every butterfly, so weather
forecasts can't predict the exact path/strength of storms after 2 weeks--
limits weather forecasts, but not climate forecasts since they focus on
seasons rather than initial observations
Global Climate Modeling - ANSWER composed of 1) fluid motion equations
on a rotating sphere (mass is neither created nor destroyed; heating/cooling
,changes temperature; forces change momentum); 2) heat sources (shortwave
and longwave radiation; condensation; surface fluxes); 3) need to
parameterize small-scale processes (clouds, moist convection)
GCM Grid Size - ANSWER 100 km x 100 km (for a sea, land, atmosphere, or
ocean grid cell)
Sea Ice Projections - ANSWER went down faster than predicted by any
models
Climate Model Forecasts - ANSWER have been strenuously tested and have
been shown to give reliable results-- successful predictions examples= more
warming at night than day, wet gets wetter, expansion of deserts, least
warming around Antarctica, most warming around Arctic,
Climate Scientists Agree on Climate Change - ANSWER many people are
misinformed-- only 48% believe there's consensus among scientists that the
Earth is warming
Science Rules! - ANSWER 1) required to describe methods exactly, mention
all assumptions made and why-- anyone should be able to replicate
experiment ;2) don't claim your study says more than it does (correlation is
not causation)
Peer Review - ANSWER peers look over a paper to make sure it follows good
scientific practices and that the argument makes sense + determines if a
scientific paper can be published
Self-Proclaimed Think Tanks - ANSWER often funded by oil and gas
companies-- exist to help achieve a desired goal, use disinformation and
scare tactics to do this, along with creating uncertainty about climate change
example= Global Climate Coalition (GCC), Competitive Enterprise Institute
, (CEI)
Typical Arguments of Climate Change Skeptics - ANSWER the atmosphere
isn't warming; the warming is real, but it's natural variability; no link between
human activity and carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere; models are
uncertain; projected changes are so small that it doesn't matter; climate
scientists say this to make money
The Sociology of Global Warming - ANSWER people who will lose
jobs/profits due to climate change mitigation; people who don't care because
they won't have to deal with it; people with political or ethical views against
climate change
The Predicament - ANSWER Some warming locked in even if we keep CO2
concentrations exactly at today's levels
Is stabilizing emissions enough? - ANSWER NO! flattening out CO2 emissions
still leads to large increases in CO2 concentrations
Scientific Assessments - ANSWER for important societal issues, assessments
are made about the whole state of the science-- example= IPCC for climate
change
How to stabilize concentrations - ANSWER requires immediate and drastic
emission cuts, along with taking additional CO2 out of the atmosphere
Alternative Energy Sources - ANSWER renewable energy sources generated
from natural sources such as solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, and hydroelectric,
and nuclear (not renewable, but also doesn't emit CO2)
US Energy Sources (2014) - ANSWER Oil (35%), Natural Gas, Coal (18%),
Renewables (10%), Nuclear (8%); Oil for transportation, coal for electricity
