Psephology- the study of voting pattens
Overview
1. The era of alignment (1945-1970)
- General election of 1970
2. The era of De-alignment (1974-2015)
- General election of 1997
3. The era of Re-alignment (2016-)
- General election of 2019
The Era of alignment
Most voters aligned with two social classes:
Middle class and working class,
Working class- blue collar, manual employment, trades and physical working, plumber, mechanic
etc, less well paid.
Middle class- White collar, non-manual employment, office jobs and management etc, higher paid.
Class subdivisions
A-E scale determined by income and wealth and profession
A, - higher managerial roles and professional, (CEO, chairman etc.)
B, - Lower professional grades, (teachers etc.) Middle class voters.
C1, - Semi-Skilled office workers, (Secretaries and receptionist etc.)
----------------------------------
C2, - Skilled working class, (Plumbers, electrician, mechanics etc.)
D, - Semi-Skilled class Working class voters.
E, - Unskilled workers
From these class subdivisions a class alignment was created and subsequently a partisan alignment.
Partisan alignment- the vast majority identify with a party; the party was then seen as a party of that
class.
A, B, C1 voters were seen as Conservative supporters
C2, D, E voters were seen as Labour supporters
Partisan stability- People generally voted the same way in one election to the next very few,
“floating voters”. In most elections floating voters were in marginal seats which were only around
3% of the electorate.
Two Party system- If voters identified as one or two classes and subsequently the two parties a
bipartisan system will be created e.g., in the 1950s 95% of voters supported either Labour or
conservative third parties were non-existent as they didn’t identify as a social class.
1970 General Election
, ‘Snap election’- doesn’t have to take place and happens between terms thanks to a vote of no
confidence, called by Harold Wilson’s Labour government. Wilson expected to win this election,
thanks to signs of economic recovery, Opposition was not “cutting through”, Heath’s Conservatives
being the opposition, Opinion polls in 1970 were very favourable to the Labour party, the Labour
campaign was seen as “presidential”, focused on Wilson, Heath had little vision, so the Conservative
campaign was very factual and focused on Labour’s record, e.g., living standards, strike action and
unemployment. Newspapers evenly divided, most bought papers which aligned with their view.
Election results (1970):
Labour majority becomes a Conservative majority of 30, Happened because of a ‘record swing’, of
4.7%, under 5/100 switched parties in 1970- a record, 2/3 of Working class voted labour, 3/4 of
middle class voted Conservative, 89% of voters voted labour or Conservative, only 13 seats were
won by other parties. Turnout was down to 72%, the 1970 is an alignment election, an election
where the campaign made a difference as exit polls, which found that voters found Wilson as
arrogant and cocky, voters had been increasingly impressed by Heath’s details on Labour’s record.
80% of voters identified strongly with a party.
Era of De-alignment (1974-2015)
Class de-alignment- voters don’t associate themselves with class, and political parties. Blue collar
doesn’t see themselves as working class and vice versa. Voters more likely to define themselves in a
wider variety of ways e.g.
Age, Ethnicity, Sexuality, Lifestyle, Political Views.
More diverse society and electorate thanks to de-alignment.
Why? - Economic change a more diverse economy and workforce. In alignment blue collars were in
heavy industry, strong sense of solidarity, hence class consciousness, after the 1970s the economy
became more diverse a more service based economy, white collar economy with light industry,
workers would become more diverse and variable, blocs of employees broke up, with loosening
power of trade unions, white collar workers became more diverse being white collar didn’t mean
high income, all traditions and norms surrounding class broke down, creating a more classless
society. A more individualistic society,
Class de-alignment led to Partisan de-alignment, voters no longer identified so strongly with a class
and therefore party, increased electoral volatility, increased number of floating voters, elections
become harder to predict. By 2000 % voters who identified with a political party was down to 30%.
Breakdown of class voting, in 1979 a majority of C2, D, E didn’t vote labour and a plurality of C2s
voted conservative in 1979.
Breakdown of the two-party system- In 1970 90% voted Lab/Con whilst in 1983 70% voted Lab/Con,
1983- SDP/Liberal Alliance- 25% of vote. 2015- UKIP- 13% of votes, SNP 50% of Scot votes.
Increased abstentions from voters, lower turnout, e.g., 1951- 83% turnout, 2001- 59%
1997 General Election
An ‘injury time’ election, used last minute at the end of the term, follows a tumultuous period for a
government and the incumbent can win, prior to the election John Major was Prime minister, it had
been riddled with many crisis, one of which being ‘black Wednesday’ 1992, the E.R.M exchange rate
mechanism in EU nations, this meant that all EU nations had the same exchange rate, in September
Overview
1. The era of alignment (1945-1970)
- General election of 1970
2. The era of De-alignment (1974-2015)
- General election of 1997
3. The era of Re-alignment (2016-)
- General election of 2019
The Era of alignment
Most voters aligned with two social classes:
Middle class and working class,
Working class- blue collar, manual employment, trades and physical working, plumber, mechanic
etc, less well paid.
Middle class- White collar, non-manual employment, office jobs and management etc, higher paid.
Class subdivisions
A-E scale determined by income and wealth and profession
A, - higher managerial roles and professional, (CEO, chairman etc.)
B, - Lower professional grades, (teachers etc.) Middle class voters.
C1, - Semi-Skilled office workers, (Secretaries and receptionist etc.)
----------------------------------
C2, - Skilled working class, (Plumbers, electrician, mechanics etc.)
D, - Semi-Skilled class Working class voters.
E, - Unskilled workers
From these class subdivisions a class alignment was created and subsequently a partisan alignment.
Partisan alignment- the vast majority identify with a party; the party was then seen as a party of that
class.
A, B, C1 voters were seen as Conservative supporters
C2, D, E voters were seen as Labour supporters
Partisan stability- People generally voted the same way in one election to the next very few,
“floating voters”. In most elections floating voters were in marginal seats which were only around
3% of the electorate.
Two Party system- If voters identified as one or two classes and subsequently the two parties a
bipartisan system will be created e.g., in the 1950s 95% of voters supported either Labour or
conservative third parties were non-existent as they didn’t identify as a social class.
1970 General Election
, ‘Snap election’- doesn’t have to take place and happens between terms thanks to a vote of no
confidence, called by Harold Wilson’s Labour government. Wilson expected to win this election,
thanks to signs of economic recovery, Opposition was not “cutting through”, Heath’s Conservatives
being the opposition, Opinion polls in 1970 were very favourable to the Labour party, the Labour
campaign was seen as “presidential”, focused on Wilson, Heath had little vision, so the Conservative
campaign was very factual and focused on Labour’s record, e.g., living standards, strike action and
unemployment. Newspapers evenly divided, most bought papers which aligned with their view.
Election results (1970):
Labour majority becomes a Conservative majority of 30, Happened because of a ‘record swing’, of
4.7%, under 5/100 switched parties in 1970- a record, 2/3 of Working class voted labour, 3/4 of
middle class voted Conservative, 89% of voters voted labour or Conservative, only 13 seats were
won by other parties. Turnout was down to 72%, the 1970 is an alignment election, an election
where the campaign made a difference as exit polls, which found that voters found Wilson as
arrogant and cocky, voters had been increasingly impressed by Heath’s details on Labour’s record.
80% of voters identified strongly with a party.
Era of De-alignment (1974-2015)
Class de-alignment- voters don’t associate themselves with class, and political parties. Blue collar
doesn’t see themselves as working class and vice versa. Voters more likely to define themselves in a
wider variety of ways e.g.
Age, Ethnicity, Sexuality, Lifestyle, Political Views.
More diverse society and electorate thanks to de-alignment.
Why? - Economic change a more diverse economy and workforce. In alignment blue collars were in
heavy industry, strong sense of solidarity, hence class consciousness, after the 1970s the economy
became more diverse a more service based economy, white collar economy with light industry,
workers would become more diverse and variable, blocs of employees broke up, with loosening
power of trade unions, white collar workers became more diverse being white collar didn’t mean
high income, all traditions and norms surrounding class broke down, creating a more classless
society. A more individualistic society,
Class de-alignment led to Partisan de-alignment, voters no longer identified so strongly with a class
and therefore party, increased electoral volatility, increased number of floating voters, elections
become harder to predict. By 2000 % voters who identified with a political party was down to 30%.
Breakdown of class voting, in 1979 a majority of C2, D, E didn’t vote labour and a plurality of C2s
voted conservative in 1979.
Breakdown of the two-party system- In 1970 90% voted Lab/Con whilst in 1983 70% voted Lab/Con,
1983- SDP/Liberal Alliance- 25% of vote. 2015- UKIP- 13% of votes, SNP 50% of Scot votes.
Increased abstentions from voters, lower turnout, e.g., 1951- 83% turnout, 2001- 59%
1997 General Election
An ‘injury time’ election, used last minute at the end of the term, follows a tumultuous period for a
government and the incumbent can win, prior to the election John Major was Prime minister, it had
been riddled with many crisis, one of which being ‘black Wednesday’ 1992, the E.R.M exchange rate
mechanism in EU nations, this meant that all EU nations had the same exchange rate, in September
