China and Global Politics – Summary
Elise Nizette
Table of Contents
Class 1 - China & WTO Accession ......................................................................... 3
China's accession WTO in 11/2001 after 15 years of preparation .................................................... 3
5 principles to assess implication of China's accession ................................................................. 3
Accession and surging economic growth ...................................................................................... 3
International trade: China trade balance with selective countries .................................................. 4
Problems and challenges in the period 2001-2008......................................................................... 5
At present ................................................................................................................................... 5
China's economic development 2008-present .............................................................................. 6
Why China is not just a cheap labor country, reasons why it is the world's biggest manufacturer...... 6
Class 2 - China and International Organizations .................................................... 7
Imperial Period (Qing Dynasty 1644-1911) ..................................................................................... 7
Republican Period ....................................................................................................................... 7
People's Republic of China: 1949-1971 ......................................................................................... 7
People's Republic of China: 1971-1978 Integration into International Community ........................... 9
People's Republic of China: 1978-present ..................................................................................... 9
Class 3 - Rise of China ....................................................................................... 11
1978 Reform Policy: focus on 4 modernizations, 2 most urgent ones: ........................................... 11
Two competing views on rise of China ......................................................................................... 11
At present ................................................................................................................................. 11
Strategy of 'peaceful rise' ........................................................................................................... 11
Theoretical perspectives on Rise of China (reflecting theoretical positions and expectation rather
than analysis of China's security discourse) ................................................................................ 12
To what extent is the threat of China a perceived threat? .............................................................. 13
Social construct of Asia's Rise besides 'Rise of China' story ......................................................... 13
Class 4 - East-Asia Alignment Strategies and the South China Sea ....................... 15
East-Asia Alignment Strategies ................................................................................................... 15
Special case of South-Korea or ROC (Republic of Korea) ................................................................... 15
China and the South China Sea .................................................................................................. 18
Class 5 - Pivoting to Asia .................................................................................... 21
Context ..................................................................................................................................... 21
Rebalance to Asia in 2011 .......................................................................................................... 21
Perception of Return to Asia policy among Chinese scholars ....................................................... 23
Assessment of success of the Pivot to Asia in the US ................................................................... 23
Trans-Pacific Partnership ........................................................................................................... 23
Chinese strategy in Sino-US trade war ........................................................................................ 24
Class 6 - The Moral Challenge of Tian'Anman ...................................................... 25
Drama of Tiananmen ................................................................................................................. 25
Freedom complicated ................................................................................................................ 25
America's China: the making of a Liberal Myth............................................................................. 26
Class 7 - Sino-US Relations ................................................................................ 29
The instability of Sino-US relations ............................................................................................. 29
Changing strategies from keeping a low profile (KLP) to striving for achievement (SFA) .................. 31
Class 8 - China's Interest in Central Asia............................................................. 35
1
, China's position in post-Cold War Central Asia (1990-2010)......................................................... 35
Strategy of Go-West Policy......................................................................................................... 36
China's interests in Central Asia ................................................................................................. 37
Class 9 - China-Russia Relations ........................................................................ 39
Historical legacy ........................................................................................................................ 39
Common interests ..................................................................................................................... 39
Under Putin: continuation of the primacy of China in Russian policy, relations increasingly improving
due to geopolitical changes........................................................................................................ 40
Challenges ................................................................................................................................ 41
Class 10 - BRI and China-EU Relations................................................................ 43
Belt and Road initiative .............................................................................................................. 43
EU strategy towards China ......................................................................................................... 45
Class 11 - The Rise of Localism .......................................................................... 47
Rise of Localism & Civic Identity in Hong Kong............................................................................. 47
Beijing's Response ..................................................................................................................... 50
Future of Hong Kong .................................................................................................................. 51
Class 12 - Next Chapter in China-Africa Relations ............................................... 53
2
,Class 1 - China & WTO Accession
China's accession WTO in 11/2001 after 15 years of preparation
- Process of accession
= massive process of reforming laws in trade issues
o Made apparent the gap between urban and rural income
o Gap becomes even greater a;er accession
• Yet great interest in accession in joining WTO, set up in 1/1995, replacing GATT
- Key driver in restructuring Chinese economy into a market economy
o Long Yongtu, Vice-Minister of Foreign Trade and China's chief global trade negoOator
• “Countries with planned economies have never parOcipated in economic
globalizaOon. China’s economy must become a market economy in order to
become part of the global economic system, as well as to effecOvely
parOcipate in the economic globalizaOon process.”
• No legiOmacy of CCP without domesOc economic growth
5 principles to assess implication of China's accession
- Non-discriminaOon
o WTO members give equal treatment to compeOng suppliers under MFN (most-
favored-naOon) principle
o Non-discriminaOon between imported and domesOcally produced goods
- Market opening
o Commitments by China to abolish non-tariff barriers, reduce tariffs, open service
sectors
o Commitment by imporOng countries to abplish quotas on texOles and clothing
(major concession to China)
o Agreement by US & other countries to impose MFN (most-favored-naOon) tariffs on
China
- Transparency and predictability
o Need to publish trade rules
o Independent judicial review
- Undistorted trade
o AnOdumping and safeguard measures to avoid disrupOon of domesOc market of
other WTO-members as result of China's import
• AnOdumping: 70% of China's products (texOles, clothing & shoes) are
vulnerable to anOdumping given nonmarket economy status for 15 years
(unOl 2016). Market Economy Status (MES) sOll not granted to China by
major trade partners: US, EU, Japan
• Safeguard measures: new form of protecOon against China during 12 years
by the use of special 'transiOonal product-specific safeguard measure'
- PreferenOal treatment for developing countries
o China sees itself as a low-income country but other WTO members reluctant to
accept status of China as developing country because of its size and growth
performance
Accession and surging economic growth
- Growth
o 2001-2008 double digit annual growth, since 2008 growth rate volaOle but not
exceeding 10%
• 2018: 6.9%
3
, • 2019: 6.1%
• 2020: 2.3% (lowest since 1976 but only country with economic growth
during COVID-19 year)
o Structural change of economy
• Share of agriculture decreases
• Share of industry and service increasing
+ Slide 11-12
- How to explain economic growth
o Supply side
• Large workforce from low producOve agricultural sector channeled into high
producOve industry and service sector
§ Rapid urbanizaOon and growth for urbanizaOon
• 1978: 17%
• 2001: 37.7%
• 2006: 43.9%
• 2018: 58.5%
• 2030: 70%
§ Massive internal migraOon from countryside to the city
• 250 million internal migrants in 2018
• Problems due to hukou system
• No access to subsidized housing
• No access to health care
• No access to educaOon
• Facing discriminaOon and sexism
• Road to modernity and economic mobility with loosening
hukou restricOons over Ome
§ IntegraOon with het global economy
o Demand side
• DomesOc investment is the motor of China's economy
§ In 2002, 48.8%
• RelaOvely low domesOc final consumpOon
§ 36% of total GDP in 2007
§ 58.8% in 2017
§ 78.5% in 2018
International trade: China trade balance with selective countries
- General paoern
o SubstanOal trade deficit with neighboring Asian countries
• Japan, Asian NIEs (newly industrialized economies)
• ASEAN 4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand), Australia
o Significant trade surplus with the US and EU
o Overall trade surplus
- Trade balance
o Taiwan: -USD73.7 bn in 2019/-USD86.7 bn in 2020
o South Korea: -USD25.24 bn in 2019/-USD24.3 bn in 2020
o Australia: -USD55.47 bn in 2019/-USD9.7 bn in 2020
o Switzerland: -USD78.173 bn in 2019/-USD4.9 bn in 2020
o Brazil: -USD28 bn in 2019/-USD31 bn 2020
o Japan: +USD14 bn in 2019/-USD 2.12 bn in 2020
o Germany: +USD14 bn in 2019/+USD20 bn in 2020
o Angola: -USD25.7 bn in 2018/-USD12.8 bn in 2020
4
Elise Nizette
Table of Contents
Class 1 - China & WTO Accession ......................................................................... 3
China's accession WTO in 11/2001 after 15 years of preparation .................................................... 3
5 principles to assess implication of China's accession ................................................................. 3
Accession and surging economic growth ...................................................................................... 3
International trade: China trade balance with selective countries .................................................. 4
Problems and challenges in the period 2001-2008......................................................................... 5
At present ................................................................................................................................... 5
China's economic development 2008-present .............................................................................. 6
Why China is not just a cheap labor country, reasons why it is the world's biggest manufacturer...... 6
Class 2 - China and International Organizations .................................................... 7
Imperial Period (Qing Dynasty 1644-1911) ..................................................................................... 7
Republican Period ....................................................................................................................... 7
People's Republic of China: 1949-1971 ......................................................................................... 7
People's Republic of China: 1971-1978 Integration into International Community ........................... 9
People's Republic of China: 1978-present ..................................................................................... 9
Class 3 - Rise of China ....................................................................................... 11
1978 Reform Policy: focus on 4 modernizations, 2 most urgent ones: ........................................... 11
Two competing views on rise of China ......................................................................................... 11
At present ................................................................................................................................. 11
Strategy of 'peaceful rise' ........................................................................................................... 11
Theoretical perspectives on Rise of China (reflecting theoretical positions and expectation rather
than analysis of China's security discourse) ................................................................................ 12
To what extent is the threat of China a perceived threat? .............................................................. 13
Social construct of Asia's Rise besides 'Rise of China' story ......................................................... 13
Class 4 - East-Asia Alignment Strategies and the South China Sea ....................... 15
East-Asia Alignment Strategies ................................................................................................... 15
Special case of South-Korea or ROC (Republic of Korea) ................................................................... 15
China and the South China Sea .................................................................................................. 18
Class 5 - Pivoting to Asia .................................................................................... 21
Context ..................................................................................................................................... 21
Rebalance to Asia in 2011 .......................................................................................................... 21
Perception of Return to Asia policy among Chinese scholars ....................................................... 23
Assessment of success of the Pivot to Asia in the US ................................................................... 23
Trans-Pacific Partnership ........................................................................................................... 23
Chinese strategy in Sino-US trade war ........................................................................................ 24
Class 6 - The Moral Challenge of Tian'Anman ...................................................... 25
Drama of Tiananmen ................................................................................................................. 25
Freedom complicated ................................................................................................................ 25
America's China: the making of a Liberal Myth............................................................................. 26
Class 7 - Sino-US Relations ................................................................................ 29
The instability of Sino-US relations ............................................................................................. 29
Changing strategies from keeping a low profile (KLP) to striving for achievement (SFA) .................. 31
Class 8 - China's Interest in Central Asia............................................................. 35
1
, China's position in post-Cold War Central Asia (1990-2010)......................................................... 35
Strategy of Go-West Policy......................................................................................................... 36
China's interests in Central Asia ................................................................................................. 37
Class 9 - China-Russia Relations ........................................................................ 39
Historical legacy ........................................................................................................................ 39
Common interests ..................................................................................................................... 39
Under Putin: continuation of the primacy of China in Russian policy, relations increasingly improving
due to geopolitical changes........................................................................................................ 40
Challenges ................................................................................................................................ 41
Class 10 - BRI and China-EU Relations................................................................ 43
Belt and Road initiative .............................................................................................................. 43
EU strategy towards China ......................................................................................................... 45
Class 11 - The Rise of Localism .......................................................................... 47
Rise of Localism & Civic Identity in Hong Kong............................................................................. 47
Beijing's Response ..................................................................................................................... 50
Future of Hong Kong .................................................................................................................. 51
Class 12 - Next Chapter in China-Africa Relations ............................................... 53
2
,Class 1 - China & WTO Accession
China's accession WTO in 11/2001 after 15 years of preparation
- Process of accession
= massive process of reforming laws in trade issues
o Made apparent the gap between urban and rural income
o Gap becomes even greater a;er accession
• Yet great interest in accession in joining WTO, set up in 1/1995, replacing GATT
- Key driver in restructuring Chinese economy into a market economy
o Long Yongtu, Vice-Minister of Foreign Trade and China's chief global trade negoOator
• “Countries with planned economies have never parOcipated in economic
globalizaOon. China’s economy must become a market economy in order to
become part of the global economic system, as well as to effecOvely
parOcipate in the economic globalizaOon process.”
• No legiOmacy of CCP without domesOc economic growth
5 principles to assess implication of China's accession
- Non-discriminaOon
o WTO members give equal treatment to compeOng suppliers under MFN (most-
favored-naOon) principle
o Non-discriminaOon between imported and domesOcally produced goods
- Market opening
o Commitments by China to abolish non-tariff barriers, reduce tariffs, open service
sectors
o Commitment by imporOng countries to abplish quotas on texOles and clothing
(major concession to China)
o Agreement by US & other countries to impose MFN (most-favored-naOon) tariffs on
China
- Transparency and predictability
o Need to publish trade rules
o Independent judicial review
- Undistorted trade
o AnOdumping and safeguard measures to avoid disrupOon of domesOc market of
other WTO-members as result of China's import
• AnOdumping: 70% of China's products (texOles, clothing & shoes) are
vulnerable to anOdumping given nonmarket economy status for 15 years
(unOl 2016). Market Economy Status (MES) sOll not granted to China by
major trade partners: US, EU, Japan
• Safeguard measures: new form of protecOon against China during 12 years
by the use of special 'transiOonal product-specific safeguard measure'
- PreferenOal treatment for developing countries
o China sees itself as a low-income country but other WTO members reluctant to
accept status of China as developing country because of its size and growth
performance
Accession and surging economic growth
- Growth
o 2001-2008 double digit annual growth, since 2008 growth rate volaOle but not
exceeding 10%
• 2018: 6.9%
3
, • 2019: 6.1%
• 2020: 2.3% (lowest since 1976 but only country with economic growth
during COVID-19 year)
o Structural change of economy
• Share of agriculture decreases
• Share of industry and service increasing
+ Slide 11-12
- How to explain economic growth
o Supply side
• Large workforce from low producOve agricultural sector channeled into high
producOve industry and service sector
§ Rapid urbanizaOon and growth for urbanizaOon
• 1978: 17%
• 2001: 37.7%
• 2006: 43.9%
• 2018: 58.5%
• 2030: 70%
§ Massive internal migraOon from countryside to the city
• 250 million internal migrants in 2018
• Problems due to hukou system
• No access to subsidized housing
• No access to health care
• No access to educaOon
• Facing discriminaOon and sexism
• Road to modernity and economic mobility with loosening
hukou restricOons over Ome
§ IntegraOon with het global economy
o Demand side
• DomesOc investment is the motor of China's economy
§ In 2002, 48.8%
• RelaOvely low domesOc final consumpOon
§ 36% of total GDP in 2007
§ 58.8% in 2017
§ 78.5% in 2018
International trade: China trade balance with selective countries
- General paoern
o SubstanOal trade deficit with neighboring Asian countries
• Japan, Asian NIEs (newly industrialized economies)
• ASEAN 4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand), Australia
o Significant trade surplus with the US and EU
o Overall trade surplus
- Trade balance
o Taiwan: -USD73.7 bn in 2019/-USD86.7 bn in 2020
o South Korea: -USD25.24 bn in 2019/-USD24.3 bn in 2020
o Australia: -USD55.47 bn in 2019/-USD9.7 bn in 2020
o Switzerland: -USD78.173 bn in 2019/-USD4.9 bn in 2020
o Brazil: -USD28 bn in 2019/-USD31 bn 2020
o Japan: +USD14 bn in 2019/-USD 2.12 bn in 2020
o Germany: +USD14 bn in 2019/+USD20 bn in 2020
o Angola: -USD25.7 bn in 2018/-USD12.8 bn in 2020
4
