Mediatechnologie en innovatie
Table of Contents
Quadruple helix model ................................................................................................................ 8
Kondratie*golven................................................................................................................................... 8
Historische evolutie..................................................................................................................................................... 8
Strategische cockpit & economische evolutie ............................................................................................................... 9
Quadruple helix in de praktijk ................................................................................................................. 9
Zelfstudie carayannis & campbell (2010) .................................................................................................................... 10
Flanders Technology & Innovation......................................................................................................... 12
Silicon Valley ............................................................................................................................................................. 12
IMEC......................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Zelfstudie: IMEC & ASML & TSMC ............................................................................................................................... 14
Wat? .................................................................................................................................................... 18
Zelfstudie: AI social sciences deficit ........................................................................................................................... 18
Media, technologie en innovatie ................................................................................................................................. 21
Diamantslijper .......................................................................................................................................................... 21
T-shaped profiles....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Zelfstudies .......................................................................................................................................... 25
Zelfstudie strategic foresight report ............................................................................................................................ 25
Zelfstudie trendrapport VRT ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Zelfstudie scenario-analyse ....................................................................................................................................... 33
Toekomstonderzoek in innovatie ................................................................................................. 33
T-shaped skills ..................................................................................................................................... 33
Verleden, heden en toekomst ............................................................................................................... 33
Verleden ................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Heden ...................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Toekomst .................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Kunnen we de toekomst voorspellen? ................................................................................................... 34
Ray Kurzweil .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
“De toekomst” bestaat niet ........................................................................................................................................ 34
Path dependancy ...................................................................................................................................................... 35
Toekomstbeelden ...................................................................................................................................................... 35
Futures and foresight & futures literacy ................................................................................................. 35
Futures literacy ......................................................................................................................................................... 35
Futures thinking / futures research ............................................................................................................................. 35
(Doing) foresight ........................................................................................................................................................ 35
Futures studies or foresight? ...................................................................................................................................... 36
What is scenario planning?................................................................................................................... 36
Alternative futures with the future cone ...................................................................................................................... 36
Zelfstudie futures ...................................................................................................................................................... 37
Thinking in futures ..................................................................................................................................................... 40
1
, Understanding today ............................................................................................................................ 40
Environmental scanning ............................................................................................................................................ 40
Signalen / factoids ..................................................................................................................................................... 43
Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Drijvende krachten .................................................................................................................................................... 43
Voorbeeld: thrifting .................................................................................................................................................... 43
Historiek communicatietechnologie ........................................................................................... 44
Digitalisering à Convergentie .............................................................................................................. 45
3 sectoren voor digitalisering ..................................................................................................................................... 45
1995 – 2005: kritische kantelpunt ............................................................................................................................... 45
3x historiek .......................................................................................................................................... 47
Hoe is (digitale) technologie elke vorm van communicatie gaan mediëren? .................................................................. 47
Fasen ....................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Digitalisering als central concept ......................................................................................................... 48
Digitization ≠ Digitalisation ≠ Digital Transformation .................................................................................................... 48
Digitalisering (digitization) content ............................................................................................................................. 49
Historisch ................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Digitalisering infrastructuur ....................................................................................................................................... 51
Digital dividend ......................................................................................................................................................... 52
Digitalisering ............................................................................................................................................................. 53
Innovatie(spiraal) & creatieve destructie ............................................................................................... 54
Creatieve destructie .................................................................................................................................................. 54
Innovatiespiraal......................................................................................................................................................... 56
First mover = advantage? ........................................................................................................................................... 57
Trends ................................................................................................................................................. 58
Tekstcommunicatie .................................................................................................................... 60
Tekst.................................................................................................................................................... 60
Belang van standaardisatie ........................................................................................................................................ 60
Technologische tekscommunicatie ............................................................................................................................ 60
Telegrafie & Telex/Fax ........................................................................................................................... 62
Telegrafie .................................................................................................................................................................. 62
Van telegrafie naar telex ............................................................................................................................................. 63
Telex en fax ............................................................................................................................................................... 64
Mijlpalen tekstcommunicatie tem digitalisering .................................................................................... 65
Mijlpalen ................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Digitale tekst ............................................................................................................................................................. 66
Digitale tekstcode standaardisatie ............................................................................................................................. 66
Teletekst en videotex ................................................................................................................................................. 68
Computer ............................................................................................................................................ 71
“Computing” machine ............................................................................................................................................... 71
Stap 1: mechanisatie van de rekentaak....................................................................................................................... 72
Stap 2: van mechanisch naar elektronisch .................................................................................................................. 73
Oorlog ...................................................................................................................................................................... 75
De computer en het ontstaan van de pc ..................................................................................................................... 76
2
, Op naar de industriële computer ................................................................................................................................ 77
Bedrijfscomputermarkt.............................................................................................................................................. 77
Jaren 60/70 ............................................................................................................................................................... 79
Jaren ’60-’80: evolutie naar de computerterminal ....................................................................................................... 81
Op naar de microcomputer ........................................................................................................................................ 82
De strijd om de “residentiële” microcomputer ............................................................................................................ 84
Het internet ......................................................................................................................................... 86
Geschiedenis internet: mijlpalen, strijdtonelen, revoluties .......................................................................................... 86
Beperkingen computing: ‘50/’60 en 2026 .................................................................................................................... 89
DARPA en het ontstaan van het internet ...................................................................................................................... 90
Geboorte WWW ≠ Internet ......................................................................................................................................... 92
De internet GUI & de “inhaalbeweging” van Microsoft.................................................................................................. 94
War of the browsers ................................................................................................................................................... 94
Evolutie van het web .................................................................................................................................................. 95
Solid ......................................................................................................................................................................... 97
Theoretische kaders ................................................................................................................... 99
Perspectieven ..................................................................................................................................... 100
Technologisch determinisme ................................................................................................................................... 100
Sociaal constructivisme .......................................................................................................................................... 101
Technologisch deterministisch vs constructivistisch onderzoek ................................................................................ 102
Verzoenende posities .......................................................................................................................... 103
Dualiteit van technologie (Orlikowki, 1992) ............................................................................................................... 103
Dimerential susceptibility to Media Emects Model ...................................................................................................... 103
Amordances ............................................................................................................................................................ 104
Social shaping of technology (SST) ........................................................................................................................... 107
Denkkaders ............................................................................................................................................................ 109
Trends (PESTEL) ...................................................................................................................................................... 110
Interactionisme .................................................................................................................................. 112
Gedragstheorieën ............................................................................................................................... 114
Self-Determination Theory (SDT) .............................................................................................................................. 114
Uses & Gratifications (U&G) ..................................................................................................................................... 115
Social Cognitive Theory (SCT)................................................................................................................................... 115
Model of Media Attendance (MMA) ........................................................................................................................... 116
Di*usietheorie & domesticatie ............................................................................................................ 117
Dimusietheorie ........................................................................................................................................................ 117
Domesticatie .......................................................................................................................................................... 118
Theoretische kaders ................................................................................................................................................ 122
Dimusietheorie ........................................................................................................................................................ 124
Communicatie ........................................................................................................................................................ 129
Adoptiebeslissingsproces (tijd) ................................................................................................................................ 130
Dimusieproces = sociaal proces ............................................................................................................................... 135
Kritieken op dimusietheorie ...................................................................................................................................... 137
The Transformation Architects .................................................................................................. 138
5 mental models I use ......................................................................................................................... 138
Progression of economic value (Pine & Gilmore) ....................................................................................................... 138
3
, Spheres of transformation (Joe Pine) ........................................................................................................................ 140
Hierarchy of experiences (M. Duerden, Joe Pine) ....................................................................................................... 141
The sensory integration model (J. Ayres).................................................................................................................... 143
The experience pyramids (A. Thys) ............................................................................................................................ 144
Digimeter ................................................................................................................................. 144
Centrale conclusie van Digimeter 2025 ................................................................................................ 144
Verschroeiende acceleratie, maar ook herkalibratie .................................................................................................. 144
Domesticatie op 3 niveaus ....................................................................................................................................... 145
Wat is Digimeter? .................................................................................................................................................... 145
Digitale transformatie komt in golven ................................................................................................... 146
Vier digitale transformatiegolven .............................................................................................................................. 146
Acceleratie ............................................................................................................................................................. 147
Herkalibratie ........................................................................................................................................................... 148
Rapport (& tabellenrapport) ..................................................................................................................................... 150
Bezit & gebruik .................................................................................................................................... 150
Vlaming blijft digitaal versnellen op de 1e drie golven ................................................................................................. 150
De groei zit niet meer in de “hardware” ..................................................................................................................... 150
De groei zit in de “software” ..................................................................................................................................... 151
Minder exclusie ≠ meer inclusie............................................................................................................................... 152
Online first > Mobile first .......................................................................................................................................... 154
Online > mobile > social first .................................................................................................................................... 155
Mobile & social first ................................................................................................................................................. 156
Vierde golf: AI...................................................................................................................................... 157
AI als 4e digitale transformatiegolf ............................................................................................................................ 157
AI-golf overspoelt aan nooit geziene snelheid............................................................................................................ 157
AI-orkaan wint nog aan kracht .................................................................................................................................. 157
Disruptieve impact AI .............................................................................................................................................. 158
Nieuwe digitale kloven ............................................................................................................................................. 160
Digitale versnelling aan 2 snelheden .................................................................................................... 161
Splijtzwam AI .......................................................................................................................................................... 161
Digital versnellend Vlaanderen ................................................................................................................................. 163
Mens, markt & maatschappij uitgedaagd .............................................................................................. 163
Algemeen ............................................................................................................................................................... 163
Markt – toenemende druk op businessmodellen ....................................................................................................... 164
Mens ...................................................................................................................................................................... 175
Overheid ................................................................................................................................................................. 182
Beleid ..................................................................................................................................................................... 187
Domesticatiestrijd smartphone & sociale media ....................................................................... 189
Jongeren & leren? ................................................................................................................................ 189
Cognitieve vaardigheden & technologie .................................................................................................................... 189
Ontwikkelingsfases ................................................................................................................................................. 190
Mediawijsheid ≠ toestelwijsheid .............................................................................................................................. 191
Fases en hun problemen ......................................................................................................................................... 192
Bezorgheid terecht?................................................................................................................................................. 194
Verslaving? Dopamine? ........................................................................................................................................... 196
4
, Domesticatietheorie ........................................................................................................................... 197
Mobile DNA ............................................................................................................................................................. 199
Wat kunnen we zelf doen? ................................................................................................................... 202
Smartphone temmen als een “hond” ....................................................................................................................... 202
Wat zou beleid kunnen doen? .................................................................................................................................. 203
Jongeren en hun smartphone ............................................................................................................... 203
Tijdrovende gewoontes ............................................................................................................................................ 204
Trainingsschema’s voor de prefrontale cortex ........................................................................................................... 204
Van Digisprong naar hinkelsprong ............................................................................................................................ 205
De weg naar de mobile economy............................................................................................... 205
Zelfstudie the mobile economy 2026 .................................................................................................... 205
Historiek van spraakcommunicatie ...................................................................................................... 205
Markt van stijgend economisch belang ..................................................................................................................... 205
Evolutie van spraakcommunicatie ....................................................................................................... 206
R1: van buis naar draad (1874) ................................................................................................................................. 206
R2: switched operator (1886) ................................................................................................................................... 206
R3: gebruiksvriendelijkheid (1896) ............................................................................................................................ 207
R4: digitalisering (jaren 90) ....................................................................................................................................... 207
R5: mobiel internet en smartphone (2007) ................................................................................................................ 208
Van vaste naar mobiele telefonie ......................................................................................................... 209
De start van analoge mobiele telefonie (1G) .............................................................................................................. 209
Digitalisering van spraak .......................................................................................................................................... 211
Mobiele netwerken: evolutie .................................................................................................................................... 213
4 mobiele strijdtonelen/tijdperken ....................................................................................................... 215
2006-2011 .............................................................................................................................................................. 215
2009-2014 .............................................................................................................................................................. 217
2012 - ….................................................................................................................................................................. 220
2025-… ................................................................................................................................................................... 221
Regulating data: trends & key instruments in the EU .................................................................. 223
Inleiding ............................................................................................................................................. 223
Europese datastrategie ............................................................................................................................................ 224
Regulating data: practical examples & key instruments ........................................................................ 225
Verschillende soorten instrumenten ......................................................................................................................... 226
Digital Services Act.................................................................................................................................................. 226
Digital Markets Act .................................................................................................................................................. 227
Data Governance Act............................................................................................................................................... 228
Data Act.................................................................................................................................................................. 230
AI Act ...................................................................................................................................................................... 232
European Health Data Space ................................................................................................................................... 234
Regulating data: trends ....................................................................................................................... 235
Van zelfregulering naar standaardisering (trend 1) ..................................................................................................... 235
Van beperkte naar brede territoriale impact (trend 2) ................................................................................................. 238
Van zwakkere handhaving naar sterkere handhaving (trend 3) .................................................................................... 239
5
, Balans tussen innovatie en rechten (trend 4)............................................................................................................. 240
Nieuwe economie .................................................................................................................... 242
Digital economy .................................................................................................................................. 242
Transformatie naar een nieuwe economie ................................................................................................................ 242
Dubbele betekenis van digitale transformatie ........................................................................................................... 243
Zelfstudie digitale transformatie ............................................................................................................................... 244
Nieuwe economie ............................................................................................................................... 244
Shift in paradigma’s ................................................................................................................................................. 244
Van productkwaliteit naar platformen en ervaringen.................................................................................................. 244
GAP vs CAP ............................................................................................................................................................. 246
Paradigmashift en bestedingsgedrag ........................................................................................................................ 246
Nieuwe digitale (attention, platform, …) economie ............................................................................... 248
OTT economy en de ‘lekkende euro’ ......................................................................................................................... 248
Long tail economy ................................................................................................................................................... 249
Weerstand .............................................................................................................................................................. 251
Paradigmashift: data terug naar de burger ................................................................................................................ 253
Economische trends ........................................................................................................................... 254
Zelfstudie scenario’s ................................................................................................................ 256
Four scenarios on the future of AI in the workplace ............................................................................... 256
Wat zijn de scenario’s? ............................................................................................................................................ 256
Actuele innovatiecase van Belgisch bedrijf ............................................................................................................... 258
MEDIA 2035: Four Scenarios for the Future of Media ............................................................................. 260
Wat zijn de scenario’s? ............................................................................................................................................ 260
Actuele innovatiecase van Belgisch bedrijf ............................................................................................................... 262
The Future of Media & Entertainment (Deloitte) .................................................................................... 264
Wat zijn de scenario’s? ............................................................................................................................................ 264
Innovatiecase Belgisch bedrijf.................................................................................................................................. 266
Zelfstudie Mediaconcentratie & Digimeter ................................................................................ 267
Vlaamse mediasector op kantelpunt? ...................................................................................................................... 267
Argumenten uit het Mediaconcentratierapport .......................................................................................................... 268
AI zet creatieve beroepen en rechten onder druk ....................................................................... 268
Argumenten uit de Digimeter ................................................................................................................................... 269
Waar vullen beide rapporten elkaar aan? .................................................................................................................. 269
Waar bevestigen ze elkaar? ...................................................................................................................................... 270
Waar spreken ze elkaar deels tegen? ........................................................................................................................ 270
Korte conclusie ....................................................................................................................................................... 270
Zelfstudie Social media elements ............................................................................................. 271
Essentie van de paper.............................................................................................................................................. 271
Social TV ................................................................................................................................................................. 271
Message ................................................................................................................................................................. 272
Stream.................................................................................................................................................................... 272
Kort overzicht .......................................................................................................................................................... 273
Wat zegt Digimeter dat hiermee overeenkomt? ......................................................................................................... 273
6
, Wat spreekt Digimeter deels tegen? ......................................................................................................................... 274
Samenvattende conclusie ....................................................................................................................................... 274
Zelfstudie digitale transformatie ............................................................................................... 275
Wat is de kern van de argumentatie voor digitale transformatie? ........................................................... 275
Wereldniveau (UNDP Digital Strategy 2022-2025)...................................................................................................... 275
Europees niveau (Draghi-rapport over Europese competitiviteit) ................................................................................ 275
Federaal niveau (SmartNation België 2030)............................................................................................................... 276
Vlaams niveau......................................................................................................................................................... 276
Lokale niveau (stad, gemeente, provincie) ................................................................................................................ 277
Overzicht in tabel ................................................................................................................................ 277
Is er een gemene deler? ...................................................................................................................... 277
Wat zijn de niveaugebonden verschillen? .................................................................................................................. 278
Korte conclusie ................................................................................................................................... 278
Zelfstudie mobiele economie ................................................................................................... 278
Wat bedoelen we met de mobiele economie? ....................................................................................... 278
Waarom spreken we van een mobiele economie? ................................................................................. 279
Mobiel is economische infrastructuur geworden ....................................................................................................... 279
Mobiel zorgt voor productiviteit en groei.................................................................................................................... 279
De sector creëert jobs en publieke inkomsten ........................................................................................................... 279
Mobiel maakt nieuwe businessmodellen mogelijk..................................................................................................... 279
Mobiel is ook sociaal belangrijk ................................................................................................................................ 280
Smartphone versus AI versus experience economy .............................................................................. 280
Belang van de smartphone ...................................................................................................................................... 280
Belang van AI .......................................................................................................................................................... 280
Belang van experience economy .............................................................................................................................. 280
Smartphone: empowerment of enslavement? ...................................................................................... 281
Smartphone als empowerment ................................................................................................................................ 281
Smartphone als enslavement .................................................................................................................................. 281
Mijn standpunt ........................................................................................................................................................ 281
Andere trends uit het rapport volgens PESTEL....................................................................................... 282
Politiek ................................................................................................................................................................... 282
Economisch ............................................................................................................................................................ 282
Sociaal ................................................................................................................................................................... 282
Technologisch ......................................................................................................................................................... 282
Ecologisch .............................................................................................................................................................. 282
Juridisch ................................................................................................................................................................. 282
Kort overzicht ..................................................................................................................................... 282
7
,Quadruple helix model
Concept dat duidt hoe je van kennis tot innovatie komt. Hoe je kennis valoriseert in de samenleving.
In de figuur: 4 elementen verstrengeld met elkaar (dit was niet altijd zo).
à Quadruple helix komt uit:
• Kennistheorieën
• Idee van evoluerende socio-economische formaties
= per aantal decennia komen we in een nieuwe maatschappelijke economische realiteit.
Kondratieffgolven
Evoluerende “socio-economische formaties” of “techno-economische paradigma’s”
Agrarian age à Industrial age à Networked knowlegde age
Natural economy Market economy Knowledge economy
Reliance on natural resources Development of mineral resources Use of knowlegde, big data;
dependent on human creativity and
innovation
Basic tools Mechanical, electrical and Green intelligent technology,
automated equipment globally networked manufacturing
and service equipment
Historische evolutie
1. Agrarische samenleving
2. Industriële samenleving
3. Start digitalisering
4. Knowledge economy
In de kenniseconomie
• Boeren hebben het moeilijk
• Concurrentie door buitenland
• We zijn (noodzakelijk) geëvolueerd
Belangrijk
• De grondstof die we bewerken zijn geen natuurlijke grondstoffen meer (die hebben we hier niet meer)
• Enige wat we hier hebben is kennis
• Dit geldt helaas voor bijna heel Europa
8
, Strategische cockpit & economische evolutie
As onderaan: toont waar de strategische cockpit van het bedrijf zit.
Verschuiving in leiderschap
• CEO: investeren en herinvesteren
• CIO: data, digitale data à degene met meeste data had meeste macht (bv Facebook)
• CHRO: juiste mensen aantrekken
- Mensen die AI-shift aankunnen
- Samenleving waarin niet alles wat technologisch mogelijk is ook wenselijk is
Belangrijke tijdsaanduidingen
• Information Age: jaren 70
• Intelligence Age: AI, ware for talents
Post-industriële samenleving
= kennissamenleving/kenniseconomie
= labels & golven (cf les economie)
• Digitale technologie
= driver van verandering, digitale transformatie (DT)
• Digitale transformatie
= uitdaging
• Kantelpunt
- “Digitalisering” van de “rekenmachine”
- Rekenmachine = computer
à Quadruple helix moet goed samenwerken, anders wordt kennis geen innovatie
Quadruple helix in de praktijk
Overheid: kip – ei
Examen: overheden hebben taak om kip-ei te doorbreken (waarom?)
Overheid is het gewoon om dingen te beschermen/reguleren, maar in innovatielandschap moet overheid stimuleren
en duwtje in de rug geven.
à Bedrijven bewegen niet zonder marktzekerheid, burgers happen niet zonder vertrouwen.
9
Table of Contents
Quadruple helix model ................................................................................................................ 8
Kondratie*golven................................................................................................................................... 8
Historische evolutie..................................................................................................................................................... 8
Strategische cockpit & economische evolutie ............................................................................................................... 9
Quadruple helix in de praktijk ................................................................................................................. 9
Zelfstudie carayannis & campbell (2010) .................................................................................................................... 10
Flanders Technology & Innovation......................................................................................................... 12
Silicon Valley ............................................................................................................................................................. 12
IMEC......................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Zelfstudie: IMEC & ASML & TSMC ............................................................................................................................... 14
Wat? .................................................................................................................................................... 18
Zelfstudie: AI social sciences deficit ........................................................................................................................... 18
Media, technologie en innovatie ................................................................................................................................. 21
Diamantslijper .......................................................................................................................................................... 21
T-shaped profiles....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Zelfstudies .......................................................................................................................................... 25
Zelfstudie strategic foresight report ............................................................................................................................ 25
Zelfstudie trendrapport VRT ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Zelfstudie scenario-analyse ....................................................................................................................................... 33
Toekomstonderzoek in innovatie ................................................................................................. 33
T-shaped skills ..................................................................................................................................... 33
Verleden, heden en toekomst ............................................................................................................... 33
Verleden ................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Heden ...................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Toekomst .................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Kunnen we de toekomst voorspellen? ................................................................................................... 34
Ray Kurzweil .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
“De toekomst” bestaat niet ........................................................................................................................................ 34
Path dependancy ...................................................................................................................................................... 35
Toekomstbeelden ...................................................................................................................................................... 35
Futures and foresight & futures literacy ................................................................................................. 35
Futures literacy ......................................................................................................................................................... 35
Futures thinking / futures research ............................................................................................................................. 35
(Doing) foresight ........................................................................................................................................................ 35
Futures studies or foresight? ...................................................................................................................................... 36
What is scenario planning?................................................................................................................... 36
Alternative futures with the future cone ...................................................................................................................... 36
Zelfstudie futures ...................................................................................................................................................... 37
Thinking in futures ..................................................................................................................................................... 40
1
, Understanding today ............................................................................................................................ 40
Environmental scanning ............................................................................................................................................ 40
Signalen / factoids ..................................................................................................................................................... 43
Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Drijvende krachten .................................................................................................................................................... 43
Voorbeeld: thrifting .................................................................................................................................................... 43
Historiek communicatietechnologie ........................................................................................... 44
Digitalisering à Convergentie .............................................................................................................. 45
3 sectoren voor digitalisering ..................................................................................................................................... 45
1995 – 2005: kritische kantelpunt ............................................................................................................................... 45
3x historiek .......................................................................................................................................... 47
Hoe is (digitale) technologie elke vorm van communicatie gaan mediëren? .................................................................. 47
Fasen ....................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Digitalisering als central concept ......................................................................................................... 48
Digitization ≠ Digitalisation ≠ Digital Transformation .................................................................................................... 48
Digitalisering (digitization) content ............................................................................................................................. 49
Historisch ................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Digitalisering infrastructuur ....................................................................................................................................... 51
Digital dividend ......................................................................................................................................................... 52
Digitalisering ............................................................................................................................................................. 53
Innovatie(spiraal) & creatieve destructie ............................................................................................... 54
Creatieve destructie .................................................................................................................................................. 54
Innovatiespiraal......................................................................................................................................................... 56
First mover = advantage? ........................................................................................................................................... 57
Trends ................................................................................................................................................. 58
Tekstcommunicatie .................................................................................................................... 60
Tekst.................................................................................................................................................... 60
Belang van standaardisatie ........................................................................................................................................ 60
Technologische tekscommunicatie ............................................................................................................................ 60
Telegrafie & Telex/Fax ........................................................................................................................... 62
Telegrafie .................................................................................................................................................................. 62
Van telegrafie naar telex ............................................................................................................................................. 63
Telex en fax ............................................................................................................................................................... 64
Mijlpalen tekstcommunicatie tem digitalisering .................................................................................... 65
Mijlpalen ................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Digitale tekst ............................................................................................................................................................. 66
Digitale tekstcode standaardisatie ............................................................................................................................. 66
Teletekst en videotex ................................................................................................................................................. 68
Computer ............................................................................................................................................ 71
“Computing” machine ............................................................................................................................................... 71
Stap 1: mechanisatie van de rekentaak....................................................................................................................... 72
Stap 2: van mechanisch naar elektronisch .................................................................................................................. 73
Oorlog ...................................................................................................................................................................... 75
De computer en het ontstaan van de pc ..................................................................................................................... 76
2
, Op naar de industriële computer ................................................................................................................................ 77
Bedrijfscomputermarkt.............................................................................................................................................. 77
Jaren 60/70 ............................................................................................................................................................... 79
Jaren ’60-’80: evolutie naar de computerterminal ....................................................................................................... 81
Op naar de microcomputer ........................................................................................................................................ 82
De strijd om de “residentiële” microcomputer ............................................................................................................ 84
Het internet ......................................................................................................................................... 86
Geschiedenis internet: mijlpalen, strijdtonelen, revoluties .......................................................................................... 86
Beperkingen computing: ‘50/’60 en 2026 .................................................................................................................... 89
DARPA en het ontstaan van het internet ...................................................................................................................... 90
Geboorte WWW ≠ Internet ......................................................................................................................................... 92
De internet GUI & de “inhaalbeweging” van Microsoft.................................................................................................. 94
War of the browsers ................................................................................................................................................... 94
Evolutie van het web .................................................................................................................................................. 95
Solid ......................................................................................................................................................................... 97
Theoretische kaders ................................................................................................................... 99
Perspectieven ..................................................................................................................................... 100
Technologisch determinisme ................................................................................................................................... 100
Sociaal constructivisme .......................................................................................................................................... 101
Technologisch deterministisch vs constructivistisch onderzoek ................................................................................ 102
Verzoenende posities .......................................................................................................................... 103
Dualiteit van technologie (Orlikowki, 1992) ............................................................................................................... 103
Dimerential susceptibility to Media Emects Model ...................................................................................................... 103
Amordances ............................................................................................................................................................ 104
Social shaping of technology (SST) ........................................................................................................................... 107
Denkkaders ............................................................................................................................................................ 109
Trends (PESTEL) ...................................................................................................................................................... 110
Interactionisme .................................................................................................................................. 112
Gedragstheorieën ............................................................................................................................... 114
Self-Determination Theory (SDT) .............................................................................................................................. 114
Uses & Gratifications (U&G) ..................................................................................................................................... 115
Social Cognitive Theory (SCT)................................................................................................................................... 115
Model of Media Attendance (MMA) ........................................................................................................................... 116
Di*usietheorie & domesticatie ............................................................................................................ 117
Dimusietheorie ........................................................................................................................................................ 117
Domesticatie .......................................................................................................................................................... 118
Theoretische kaders ................................................................................................................................................ 122
Dimusietheorie ........................................................................................................................................................ 124
Communicatie ........................................................................................................................................................ 129
Adoptiebeslissingsproces (tijd) ................................................................................................................................ 130
Dimusieproces = sociaal proces ............................................................................................................................... 135
Kritieken op dimusietheorie ...................................................................................................................................... 137
The Transformation Architects .................................................................................................. 138
5 mental models I use ......................................................................................................................... 138
Progression of economic value (Pine & Gilmore) ....................................................................................................... 138
3
, Spheres of transformation (Joe Pine) ........................................................................................................................ 140
Hierarchy of experiences (M. Duerden, Joe Pine) ....................................................................................................... 141
The sensory integration model (J. Ayres).................................................................................................................... 143
The experience pyramids (A. Thys) ............................................................................................................................ 144
Digimeter ................................................................................................................................. 144
Centrale conclusie van Digimeter 2025 ................................................................................................ 144
Verschroeiende acceleratie, maar ook herkalibratie .................................................................................................. 144
Domesticatie op 3 niveaus ....................................................................................................................................... 145
Wat is Digimeter? .................................................................................................................................................... 145
Digitale transformatie komt in golven ................................................................................................... 146
Vier digitale transformatiegolven .............................................................................................................................. 146
Acceleratie ............................................................................................................................................................. 147
Herkalibratie ........................................................................................................................................................... 148
Rapport (& tabellenrapport) ..................................................................................................................................... 150
Bezit & gebruik .................................................................................................................................... 150
Vlaming blijft digitaal versnellen op de 1e drie golven ................................................................................................. 150
De groei zit niet meer in de “hardware” ..................................................................................................................... 150
De groei zit in de “software” ..................................................................................................................................... 151
Minder exclusie ≠ meer inclusie............................................................................................................................... 152
Online first > Mobile first .......................................................................................................................................... 154
Online > mobile > social first .................................................................................................................................... 155
Mobile & social first ................................................................................................................................................. 156
Vierde golf: AI...................................................................................................................................... 157
AI als 4e digitale transformatiegolf ............................................................................................................................ 157
AI-golf overspoelt aan nooit geziene snelheid............................................................................................................ 157
AI-orkaan wint nog aan kracht .................................................................................................................................. 157
Disruptieve impact AI .............................................................................................................................................. 158
Nieuwe digitale kloven ............................................................................................................................................. 160
Digitale versnelling aan 2 snelheden .................................................................................................... 161
Splijtzwam AI .......................................................................................................................................................... 161
Digital versnellend Vlaanderen ................................................................................................................................. 163
Mens, markt & maatschappij uitgedaagd .............................................................................................. 163
Algemeen ............................................................................................................................................................... 163
Markt – toenemende druk op businessmodellen ....................................................................................................... 164
Mens ...................................................................................................................................................................... 175
Overheid ................................................................................................................................................................. 182
Beleid ..................................................................................................................................................................... 187
Domesticatiestrijd smartphone & sociale media ....................................................................... 189
Jongeren & leren? ................................................................................................................................ 189
Cognitieve vaardigheden & technologie .................................................................................................................... 189
Ontwikkelingsfases ................................................................................................................................................. 190
Mediawijsheid ≠ toestelwijsheid .............................................................................................................................. 191
Fases en hun problemen ......................................................................................................................................... 192
Bezorgheid terecht?................................................................................................................................................. 194
Verslaving? Dopamine? ........................................................................................................................................... 196
4
, Domesticatietheorie ........................................................................................................................... 197
Mobile DNA ............................................................................................................................................................. 199
Wat kunnen we zelf doen? ................................................................................................................... 202
Smartphone temmen als een “hond” ....................................................................................................................... 202
Wat zou beleid kunnen doen? .................................................................................................................................. 203
Jongeren en hun smartphone ............................................................................................................... 203
Tijdrovende gewoontes ............................................................................................................................................ 204
Trainingsschema’s voor de prefrontale cortex ........................................................................................................... 204
Van Digisprong naar hinkelsprong ............................................................................................................................ 205
De weg naar de mobile economy............................................................................................... 205
Zelfstudie the mobile economy 2026 .................................................................................................... 205
Historiek van spraakcommunicatie ...................................................................................................... 205
Markt van stijgend economisch belang ..................................................................................................................... 205
Evolutie van spraakcommunicatie ....................................................................................................... 206
R1: van buis naar draad (1874) ................................................................................................................................. 206
R2: switched operator (1886) ................................................................................................................................... 206
R3: gebruiksvriendelijkheid (1896) ............................................................................................................................ 207
R4: digitalisering (jaren 90) ....................................................................................................................................... 207
R5: mobiel internet en smartphone (2007) ................................................................................................................ 208
Van vaste naar mobiele telefonie ......................................................................................................... 209
De start van analoge mobiele telefonie (1G) .............................................................................................................. 209
Digitalisering van spraak .......................................................................................................................................... 211
Mobiele netwerken: evolutie .................................................................................................................................... 213
4 mobiele strijdtonelen/tijdperken ....................................................................................................... 215
2006-2011 .............................................................................................................................................................. 215
2009-2014 .............................................................................................................................................................. 217
2012 - ….................................................................................................................................................................. 220
2025-… ................................................................................................................................................................... 221
Regulating data: trends & key instruments in the EU .................................................................. 223
Inleiding ............................................................................................................................................. 223
Europese datastrategie ............................................................................................................................................ 224
Regulating data: practical examples & key instruments ........................................................................ 225
Verschillende soorten instrumenten ......................................................................................................................... 226
Digital Services Act.................................................................................................................................................. 226
Digital Markets Act .................................................................................................................................................. 227
Data Governance Act............................................................................................................................................... 228
Data Act.................................................................................................................................................................. 230
AI Act ...................................................................................................................................................................... 232
European Health Data Space ................................................................................................................................... 234
Regulating data: trends ....................................................................................................................... 235
Van zelfregulering naar standaardisering (trend 1) ..................................................................................................... 235
Van beperkte naar brede territoriale impact (trend 2) ................................................................................................. 238
Van zwakkere handhaving naar sterkere handhaving (trend 3) .................................................................................... 239
5
, Balans tussen innovatie en rechten (trend 4)............................................................................................................. 240
Nieuwe economie .................................................................................................................... 242
Digital economy .................................................................................................................................. 242
Transformatie naar een nieuwe economie ................................................................................................................ 242
Dubbele betekenis van digitale transformatie ........................................................................................................... 243
Zelfstudie digitale transformatie ............................................................................................................................... 244
Nieuwe economie ............................................................................................................................... 244
Shift in paradigma’s ................................................................................................................................................. 244
Van productkwaliteit naar platformen en ervaringen.................................................................................................. 244
GAP vs CAP ............................................................................................................................................................. 246
Paradigmashift en bestedingsgedrag ........................................................................................................................ 246
Nieuwe digitale (attention, platform, …) economie ............................................................................... 248
OTT economy en de ‘lekkende euro’ ......................................................................................................................... 248
Long tail economy ................................................................................................................................................... 249
Weerstand .............................................................................................................................................................. 251
Paradigmashift: data terug naar de burger ................................................................................................................ 253
Economische trends ........................................................................................................................... 254
Zelfstudie scenario’s ................................................................................................................ 256
Four scenarios on the future of AI in the workplace ............................................................................... 256
Wat zijn de scenario’s? ............................................................................................................................................ 256
Actuele innovatiecase van Belgisch bedrijf ............................................................................................................... 258
MEDIA 2035: Four Scenarios for the Future of Media ............................................................................. 260
Wat zijn de scenario’s? ............................................................................................................................................ 260
Actuele innovatiecase van Belgisch bedrijf ............................................................................................................... 262
The Future of Media & Entertainment (Deloitte) .................................................................................... 264
Wat zijn de scenario’s? ............................................................................................................................................ 264
Innovatiecase Belgisch bedrijf.................................................................................................................................. 266
Zelfstudie Mediaconcentratie & Digimeter ................................................................................ 267
Vlaamse mediasector op kantelpunt? ...................................................................................................................... 267
Argumenten uit het Mediaconcentratierapport .......................................................................................................... 268
AI zet creatieve beroepen en rechten onder druk ....................................................................... 268
Argumenten uit de Digimeter ................................................................................................................................... 269
Waar vullen beide rapporten elkaar aan? .................................................................................................................. 269
Waar bevestigen ze elkaar? ...................................................................................................................................... 270
Waar spreken ze elkaar deels tegen? ........................................................................................................................ 270
Korte conclusie ....................................................................................................................................................... 270
Zelfstudie Social media elements ............................................................................................. 271
Essentie van de paper.............................................................................................................................................. 271
Social TV ................................................................................................................................................................. 271
Message ................................................................................................................................................................. 272
Stream.................................................................................................................................................................... 272
Kort overzicht .......................................................................................................................................................... 273
Wat zegt Digimeter dat hiermee overeenkomt? ......................................................................................................... 273
6
, Wat spreekt Digimeter deels tegen? ......................................................................................................................... 274
Samenvattende conclusie ....................................................................................................................................... 274
Zelfstudie digitale transformatie ............................................................................................... 275
Wat is de kern van de argumentatie voor digitale transformatie? ........................................................... 275
Wereldniveau (UNDP Digital Strategy 2022-2025)...................................................................................................... 275
Europees niveau (Draghi-rapport over Europese competitiviteit) ................................................................................ 275
Federaal niveau (SmartNation België 2030)............................................................................................................... 276
Vlaams niveau......................................................................................................................................................... 276
Lokale niveau (stad, gemeente, provincie) ................................................................................................................ 277
Overzicht in tabel ................................................................................................................................ 277
Is er een gemene deler? ...................................................................................................................... 277
Wat zijn de niveaugebonden verschillen? .................................................................................................................. 278
Korte conclusie ................................................................................................................................... 278
Zelfstudie mobiele economie ................................................................................................... 278
Wat bedoelen we met de mobiele economie? ....................................................................................... 278
Waarom spreken we van een mobiele economie? ................................................................................. 279
Mobiel is economische infrastructuur geworden ....................................................................................................... 279
Mobiel zorgt voor productiviteit en groei.................................................................................................................... 279
De sector creëert jobs en publieke inkomsten ........................................................................................................... 279
Mobiel maakt nieuwe businessmodellen mogelijk..................................................................................................... 279
Mobiel is ook sociaal belangrijk ................................................................................................................................ 280
Smartphone versus AI versus experience economy .............................................................................. 280
Belang van de smartphone ...................................................................................................................................... 280
Belang van AI .......................................................................................................................................................... 280
Belang van experience economy .............................................................................................................................. 280
Smartphone: empowerment of enslavement? ...................................................................................... 281
Smartphone als empowerment ................................................................................................................................ 281
Smartphone als enslavement .................................................................................................................................. 281
Mijn standpunt ........................................................................................................................................................ 281
Andere trends uit het rapport volgens PESTEL....................................................................................... 282
Politiek ................................................................................................................................................................... 282
Economisch ............................................................................................................................................................ 282
Sociaal ................................................................................................................................................................... 282
Technologisch ......................................................................................................................................................... 282
Ecologisch .............................................................................................................................................................. 282
Juridisch ................................................................................................................................................................. 282
Kort overzicht ..................................................................................................................................... 282
7
,Quadruple helix model
Concept dat duidt hoe je van kennis tot innovatie komt. Hoe je kennis valoriseert in de samenleving.
In de figuur: 4 elementen verstrengeld met elkaar (dit was niet altijd zo).
à Quadruple helix komt uit:
• Kennistheorieën
• Idee van evoluerende socio-economische formaties
= per aantal decennia komen we in een nieuwe maatschappelijke economische realiteit.
Kondratieffgolven
Evoluerende “socio-economische formaties” of “techno-economische paradigma’s”
Agrarian age à Industrial age à Networked knowlegde age
Natural economy Market economy Knowledge economy
Reliance on natural resources Development of mineral resources Use of knowlegde, big data;
dependent on human creativity and
innovation
Basic tools Mechanical, electrical and Green intelligent technology,
automated equipment globally networked manufacturing
and service equipment
Historische evolutie
1. Agrarische samenleving
2. Industriële samenleving
3. Start digitalisering
4. Knowledge economy
In de kenniseconomie
• Boeren hebben het moeilijk
• Concurrentie door buitenland
• We zijn (noodzakelijk) geëvolueerd
Belangrijk
• De grondstof die we bewerken zijn geen natuurlijke grondstoffen meer (die hebben we hier niet meer)
• Enige wat we hier hebben is kennis
• Dit geldt helaas voor bijna heel Europa
8
, Strategische cockpit & economische evolutie
As onderaan: toont waar de strategische cockpit van het bedrijf zit.
Verschuiving in leiderschap
• CEO: investeren en herinvesteren
• CIO: data, digitale data à degene met meeste data had meeste macht (bv Facebook)
• CHRO: juiste mensen aantrekken
- Mensen die AI-shift aankunnen
- Samenleving waarin niet alles wat technologisch mogelijk is ook wenselijk is
Belangrijke tijdsaanduidingen
• Information Age: jaren 70
• Intelligence Age: AI, ware for talents
Post-industriële samenleving
= kennissamenleving/kenniseconomie
= labels & golven (cf les economie)
• Digitale technologie
= driver van verandering, digitale transformatie (DT)
• Digitale transformatie
= uitdaging
• Kantelpunt
- “Digitalisering” van de “rekenmachine”
- Rekenmachine = computer
à Quadruple helix moet goed samenwerken, anders wordt kennis geen innovatie
Quadruple helix in de praktijk
Overheid: kip – ei
Examen: overheden hebben taak om kip-ei te doorbreken (waarom?)
Overheid is het gewoon om dingen te beschermen/reguleren, maar in innovatielandschap moet overheid stimuleren
en duwtje in de rug geven.
à Bedrijven bewegen niet zonder marktzekerheid, burgers happen niet zonder vertrouwen.
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