PEACE RESEARCH AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT
Lecture 1: Introduction and conflict trends
Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims
Abstract:
— This article examines global trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala
Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 59 to
61, marking the second consecutive year in which the UCDP recorded a historically high number of
conflicts.
— The article also addresses challenges in the classification of casualties, highlighting how
limitations in data quality and information access contribute to uncertainty around the civilian-to-
combatant fatality ratio. These challenges are particularly acute in cases of organized crime
violence, in which the distinction between civilians and combatants is often blurred, and in which
indiscriminate types of warfare, such as artillery and aerial bombardment, are used in urban
settings.
— Violence in all three categories of organized violence has increased substantially since the start
of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Since 2010, the number of state-based conflicts has almost doubled,
from 31 to 61 in 2024. In 2024, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded nearly five
times as many fatalities from organized violence as in 2010, despite a sharp decrease from the peak
in 2022
— Since 2010, organized violence has increased by almost any metric, with more countries on
average experiencing more and higher intensity conflicts. Asia was the only region to experience
less violence in 2024 compared with 2010, due to Afghanistan experiencing a sharp decline after
peaking during the Taliban takeover in 2021.
State-based armed conflict:
— The number of state-based armed conflicts continued to rise in 2024, from 59 in 2023 to 61 in
2024, marking the second consecutive year in which UCDP documented a record number of
conflicts.2 This builds on a trend in which relatively few conflicts are resolved; only five conflicts
active in 2023 became inactive in 2024, the fewest since 2013. In addition, not a single war—
defined as conflicts that resulted in at least 1,000 battlerelated deaths during the year—active in
2023 fell below the threshold in 2024.
— Fatalities remain at some of the highest levels in the post-1989 period, with only the three
preceding years more violent. The interstate conflict between Russia and Ukraine remained the
1 of 258
,world’s deadliest conflict, with nearly 75,700 fatalities recorded, responsible for almost 59% of all
state-based fatalities during the year, and slightly higher than the 75,200 recorded in 2023.
— All other regions in the world saw only minor escalations, with the most notable being an
increase in Asia from 4,300 fatalities in 2023, to 4,800 in 2024, driven by escalations in the
government conflict with the Pakistani Taliban, and in the Arakan conflict in Myanmar. Violence in
the Americas also ticked up, as prominent criminal gangs in Haiti formed an alliance with the intent
of overthrowing the government, resulting in international security forces being deployed as well as
increased one-sided and non-state violence.
Non-state conflict:
— The number of active non-state conflicts decreased to 74 in 2024, down from 80 in 2023. This
marks the second consecutive year of decline, and, along with 2019, represents the lowest number
of such conflicts since 2016.
— For the past decade, the Americas have dominated the trend in non-state conflict, primarily
driven by drug cartels and criminal gangs. Figure 4 shows a slight decrease in fatalities in 2024
compared with 2023, although violence remains at high levels consistent with the past decade.
Mexico’s drug-related conflicts have become increasingly fragmented due to shifting cartel
alliances, state crackdowns, and competition over trafficking routes.
One-sided violence:
— In 2024, UCDP reported a notable increase in onesided violence, with 49 actors responsible for
over 13,900 civilian fatalities, compared with 46 actors causing more than 10,600 fatalities in 2023.
— In many countries, one-sided violence and statebased conflict are closely intertwined. Among the
most fatal actors in 2024 were Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the government of Sudan, both
implicated in widespread human rights violations during the ongoing civil war. Both sides have
perpetrated ethnically targeted violence against civilians suspected of supporting the opposing side.
UCDP recorded at least 1,800 killings carried out by RSF, and at least 460 by the government of
Sudan
Classifying fatalities: Challenges in identifying civilian and combatant victims in organised
violence
— High civilian fatality ratios can reveal patterns of ethnic targeting, violations of international
humanitarian law, and the use of indiscriminate violence. Civilian fatalities also influence public
opinion and international responses.
— Yet, identifying who qualifies as a civilian is often difficult, particularly in irregular warfare, in
which combatants may lack uniforms and the line between combatant and non-combatant roles is
2 of 258
,blurred. Classification is further complicated by the varying approaches employed in collecting and
reporting fatalities.
— Conflict coverage varies in accuracy and detail, which impacts the possibility to categorize
victims. Several circumstances inherent to conflict constrain the information. First, civilian fatalities
and the parties’ own losses are often highly contested. Second, armed groups may restrict access to
conflict zones, preventing third party verification or independent reporting. These challenges can be
partly mitigated through source triangulation and data collectors trained in source evaluation. Third,
war’s destructive impact also weakens media and state institutions’ capacity to report, as
infrastructure and communications deteriorate. Moreover, the characteristics of the violence, the
actors, and the context also matter for the ability to classify fatalities.
— UCDP identifies battle-related deaths in three categories; combatants, civilians, or unknown
— Since 2011, the share of unknown fatalities in UCDP data has declined. An obvious explanation
for this is a changed information landscape with the spread of the internet, cell phones, and social
media, which has allowed for broader dissemination of information. This has also enabled the
proliferation of fatality reporting organizations focused on individual conflicts, which has facilitated
classification of victims
— Organized violence in the Americas is dominated by organized crime
— For organized crime the problems with distinguishing combatants from civilians is further
complicated by the fact that much of the violence does not take the form of regular battles, but
instead includes violent messaging, such as beheadings, torture, and massacres, targeting both
civilians and combatants.
— In Mexico, of around 11,000 deaths recorded in 2024 from organized violence, almost 97% were
classified as unknown. This has been the pattern since violence escalated sharply in 2007 (Davies
et al., 2024). Brazil shows a similar pattern, with over 80% of fatalities in 2024 falling into the
unknown category.
— War crimes tribunals, truth commissions, and fact-finding missions have improved the accuracy
of fatality estimates and classification for countries like Bosnia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Colombia.
Conclusion
— In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 59 to 61, marking the second
consecutive year of historically high conflict levels. The number of wars increased to 11, the highest
recorded since 2016. Despite this escalation, overall fatalities declined slightly, with decreases in
both state-based and non-state violence. In contrast, one-sided violence surged, driven primarily by
IS attacks in Africa. In total, UCDP recorded almost 160,000 deaths in organized violence in 2024.
3 of 258
, Knowing the civilian toll in organized violence is crucial for revealing patterns of ethnic targeting,
human rights violations, and the use of indiscriminate violence. Yet, identifying who qualifies as a
civilian is often difficult. These challenges are especially acute in settings where organized crime
blurs the lines between civilians and combatants, and in urban warfare settings.
Lecture 1:
Learning Goals
— To describe the main characteristics and evolution of violent conflicts
— To compare the main theories
— To gain a critical perspective of the current peacebuilding practices
— To apply theories to the analysis of actual conflict cases
— To explain the conflict causes and peace challenges in at least two case studies
Concept Map “Peace Research and Conflict management”
Conflict definitions, characteristics and trends
What is conflict? And does it matter how we define it ?
— Usually negative connotation
4 of 258
Lecture 1: Introduction and conflict trends
Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims
Abstract:
— This article examines global trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala
Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 59 to
61, marking the second consecutive year in which the UCDP recorded a historically high number of
conflicts.
— The article also addresses challenges in the classification of casualties, highlighting how
limitations in data quality and information access contribute to uncertainty around the civilian-to-
combatant fatality ratio. These challenges are particularly acute in cases of organized crime
violence, in which the distinction between civilians and combatants is often blurred, and in which
indiscriminate types of warfare, such as artillery and aerial bombardment, are used in urban
settings.
— Violence in all three categories of organized violence has increased substantially since the start
of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Since 2010, the number of state-based conflicts has almost doubled,
from 31 to 61 in 2024. In 2024, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded nearly five
times as many fatalities from organized violence as in 2010, despite a sharp decrease from the peak
in 2022
— Since 2010, organized violence has increased by almost any metric, with more countries on
average experiencing more and higher intensity conflicts. Asia was the only region to experience
less violence in 2024 compared with 2010, due to Afghanistan experiencing a sharp decline after
peaking during the Taliban takeover in 2021.
State-based armed conflict:
— The number of state-based armed conflicts continued to rise in 2024, from 59 in 2023 to 61 in
2024, marking the second consecutive year in which UCDP documented a record number of
conflicts.2 This builds on a trend in which relatively few conflicts are resolved; only five conflicts
active in 2023 became inactive in 2024, the fewest since 2013. In addition, not a single war—
defined as conflicts that resulted in at least 1,000 battlerelated deaths during the year—active in
2023 fell below the threshold in 2024.
— Fatalities remain at some of the highest levels in the post-1989 period, with only the three
preceding years more violent. The interstate conflict between Russia and Ukraine remained the
1 of 258
,world’s deadliest conflict, with nearly 75,700 fatalities recorded, responsible for almost 59% of all
state-based fatalities during the year, and slightly higher than the 75,200 recorded in 2023.
— All other regions in the world saw only minor escalations, with the most notable being an
increase in Asia from 4,300 fatalities in 2023, to 4,800 in 2024, driven by escalations in the
government conflict with the Pakistani Taliban, and in the Arakan conflict in Myanmar. Violence in
the Americas also ticked up, as prominent criminal gangs in Haiti formed an alliance with the intent
of overthrowing the government, resulting in international security forces being deployed as well as
increased one-sided and non-state violence.
Non-state conflict:
— The number of active non-state conflicts decreased to 74 in 2024, down from 80 in 2023. This
marks the second consecutive year of decline, and, along with 2019, represents the lowest number
of such conflicts since 2016.
— For the past decade, the Americas have dominated the trend in non-state conflict, primarily
driven by drug cartels and criminal gangs. Figure 4 shows a slight decrease in fatalities in 2024
compared with 2023, although violence remains at high levels consistent with the past decade.
Mexico’s drug-related conflicts have become increasingly fragmented due to shifting cartel
alliances, state crackdowns, and competition over trafficking routes.
One-sided violence:
— In 2024, UCDP reported a notable increase in onesided violence, with 49 actors responsible for
over 13,900 civilian fatalities, compared with 46 actors causing more than 10,600 fatalities in 2023.
— In many countries, one-sided violence and statebased conflict are closely intertwined. Among the
most fatal actors in 2024 were Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the government of Sudan, both
implicated in widespread human rights violations during the ongoing civil war. Both sides have
perpetrated ethnically targeted violence against civilians suspected of supporting the opposing side.
UCDP recorded at least 1,800 killings carried out by RSF, and at least 460 by the government of
Sudan
Classifying fatalities: Challenges in identifying civilian and combatant victims in organised
violence
— High civilian fatality ratios can reveal patterns of ethnic targeting, violations of international
humanitarian law, and the use of indiscriminate violence. Civilian fatalities also influence public
opinion and international responses.
— Yet, identifying who qualifies as a civilian is often difficult, particularly in irregular warfare, in
which combatants may lack uniforms and the line between combatant and non-combatant roles is
2 of 258
,blurred. Classification is further complicated by the varying approaches employed in collecting and
reporting fatalities.
— Conflict coverage varies in accuracy and detail, which impacts the possibility to categorize
victims. Several circumstances inherent to conflict constrain the information. First, civilian fatalities
and the parties’ own losses are often highly contested. Second, armed groups may restrict access to
conflict zones, preventing third party verification or independent reporting. These challenges can be
partly mitigated through source triangulation and data collectors trained in source evaluation. Third,
war’s destructive impact also weakens media and state institutions’ capacity to report, as
infrastructure and communications deteriorate. Moreover, the characteristics of the violence, the
actors, and the context also matter for the ability to classify fatalities.
— UCDP identifies battle-related deaths in three categories; combatants, civilians, or unknown
— Since 2011, the share of unknown fatalities in UCDP data has declined. An obvious explanation
for this is a changed information landscape with the spread of the internet, cell phones, and social
media, which has allowed for broader dissemination of information. This has also enabled the
proliferation of fatality reporting organizations focused on individual conflicts, which has facilitated
classification of victims
— Organized violence in the Americas is dominated by organized crime
— For organized crime the problems with distinguishing combatants from civilians is further
complicated by the fact that much of the violence does not take the form of regular battles, but
instead includes violent messaging, such as beheadings, torture, and massacres, targeting both
civilians and combatants.
— In Mexico, of around 11,000 deaths recorded in 2024 from organized violence, almost 97% were
classified as unknown. This has been the pattern since violence escalated sharply in 2007 (Davies
et al., 2024). Brazil shows a similar pattern, with over 80% of fatalities in 2024 falling into the
unknown category.
— War crimes tribunals, truth commissions, and fact-finding missions have improved the accuracy
of fatality estimates and classification for countries like Bosnia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Colombia.
Conclusion
— In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 59 to 61, marking the second
consecutive year of historically high conflict levels. The number of wars increased to 11, the highest
recorded since 2016. Despite this escalation, overall fatalities declined slightly, with decreases in
both state-based and non-state violence. In contrast, one-sided violence surged, driven primarily by
IS attacks in Africa. In total, UCDP recorded almost 160,000 deaths in organized violence in 2024.
3 of 258
, Knowing the civilian toll in organized violence is crucial for revealing patterns of ethnic targeting,
human rights violations, and the use of indiscriminate violence. Yet, identifying who qualifies as a
civilian is often difficult. These challenges are especially acute in settings where organized crime
blurs the lines between civilians and combatants, and in urban warfare settings.
Lecture 1:
Learning Goals
— To describe the main characteristics and evolution of violent conflicts
— To compare the main theories
— To gain a critical perspective of the current peacebuilding practices
— To apply theories to the analysis of actual conflict cases
— To explain the conflict causes and peace challenges in at least two case studies
Concept Map “Peace Research and Conflict management”
Conflict definitions, characteristics and trends
What is conflict? And does it matter how we define it ?
— Usually negative connotation
4 of 258
