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Terms in this set (114)
Probabilistic
Is the social world
-the social world is probabilistic,
deterministic or
-human beings are not deterministic robots whose
probabilistic?
behaviors always conform to law-like statements
Why do we care about
-in the social world, correlation doesn't mean
this distinction?
causation
One that will produce an output from a treatment or
probabilistic relationship
initial state, with some probability
one that will always produce the same output from a
deterministic relationship
treatment or initial state
What does it mean any interesting dependent variable is caused by
to say the social world is more than one factor
multivariate? -multivariate= multiple variables
one between an input variable and an output
causal relationship variable, where on outcome variable has changed
due to an exposure to an input variable
-the entity we want to describe and analyze
-the entity to which the concept applies
Unit of Analysis
-could be a person, state, or , country, or a certain
group
-expressing what did not happen
counterfactual -What would Y be if X had occurred
-hindsight basically
drawing a conclusion about causal relationships
Causal Inference between various inputs and policy outputs and
outcomes
, the fundamental problem of causal inference:
What does a
the difficulty that we face in experimental situations
counterfactual have to
where we cannot expose the same individual to
do with understanding
both treatment and control at the exact same
causal inference?
moment in time
any change in a subject's performance due to
repetition effect
repeating the experimental condition
- variable that is theorized to cause variation in the
What are independent
dependent variable
variables?
-- IV, X
dependent variable: variable for which at least some
How are independent of the variation is theorized to be caused by one or
variables related to more IVs
dependent variables? -Dependent variable = DV, Y
Know how to identify ---the value of the DV depends on the value of the
each in a theory or IV
hypothesis. ---according to our theory, change in the value of
the IV causes change in the value of the DV
What are antecedent and - in an indirect effect: X // Z // Y
intervening variables? --X is the antecedent = comes before
Know how to identify --Z is the intervening = comes in between
each in a theory or
hypothesis.
as the price of a good increases, the quantity
Law of Supply
supplied increases and vice versa
Shortage of supply the price fixed below equilibrium price
Surplus Supply the price fixed above equilibrium price
as the price of a good increases, the quantity
Law of demand
demanded decreases and vice versa
concept used to describe the relative levels of
performance among alternative states of allocating
goods among individuals
Pareto Efficiency
--if we change the allocation of goods among
individuals and 'no individual is worse off' and at
least one individual is better off, it is Pareto efficient
, when reallocation goods, if the beneficiaries
Kaldor - Hicks criterion collectively gain more than the losers are made
worse off, it is efficient.
when the demand of the good is exactly equal to
Market Equilibrium
the supply of the good
when a market transaction between two parties
harms third party not involved in the transaction. the
Negative Externality
market is failing to account for a cost, this "cost"
leads to inefficiency
a tentative conjecture about the causes of some
phenomenon of interest
-a model of the world
-- a set of interconnected statements
--identifies what cause something and why
--good theory:
What is a theory?
-causal,
-not driven by data alone,
-empirical,
-non-normative,
-general,
- parsimonious
to explain much with very few moving parts.
Parsimonious -a ..... theory is simple b/c it does not introduce
many assumptions
can produce hypothesis across a broad range of
contexts
Generalizable
-can out model of voter turnout be generalized to
other contexts?
identifying interesting variation in the DV
Where do theories come -go from general to specific
from? -learn from previous research
-formal theory