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ECS3707 Assignment 5 (ANSWERS) Semester 2 2025 - DISTINCTION GUARANTEED

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Well-structured ECS3707 Assignment 5 (ANSWERS) Semester 2 2025 - DISTINCTION GUARANTEED. (DETAILED ANSWERS - DISTINCTION GUARANTEED!)..... Scenario: Human capital (knowledge, skills, and good health) empowers people to achieve their potential and drives economic growth. South Africa faces a dual challenge; high inequality in both education and healthcare systems, and persistently slow productivity growth and income inequality. In 2019, South Africa’s DALY (Disability-Adjusted Life Year) loss was equivalent to 41% of GDP, revealing deep inefficiencies in the health sector (Senkubuge et al., 2021). Moreover, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for over 30% of disability-adjusted life years in South Africa. (Koch, 2024). Additionally, South Africa's population is growing at a rate of around 1,5% to 2% annually, in contrast the GDP grew by 0,6% in 2024 compared with 2023 (Stats SA, 2025). In essence, the disparity between economic growth and population growth creates significant challenges for South Africa, hindering its ability to improve the well-being of its citizens. South Africa's healthcare system faces numerous challenges, including inadequate access, particularly in rural areas, and a significant burden of disease. These issues are compounded by systemic problems like poor governance, inadequate infrastructure, and a shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, particularly in the public sector. The coexistence of a strong private healthcare sector alongside a struggling public system creates further disparities in access and quality of care (World Bank, 2023) . For instance, the Human Capital Index (HCI) which is a framework for understanding how a nation's people can contribute to its future economic prosperity. It is a measurement developed by the World Bank to assess the potential of a country's human capital (World Bank, 2018). It quantifies the expected productivity of a child born today, considering health and education factors, by the time they reach 18. The HCI is a valuable tool for governments and societies to understand how investments in human capital can boost a nation's economic and social development . The Utilization-adjusted Human Capital Index (U-HCI) scales down the HCI by considering how many adults are not employed. The U-HCI for South Africa is 0,18. Thus, children born today will be 18% as productive in adulthood as they could have been if they had access to full health and education, and they became fully employed adults. The U-HCI for girls is even lower at 0,17 (World Bank, 2020). Thus, children born today will be 18% as productive in adulthood as they could have been if they had access to full health and education, and they became fully employed adults. In essence, South Africa's Human Capital Index underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions to improve health and education outcomes, ultimately unlocking the country's full human potential. Four out of 100 children die before the age of five ; and an average of 32% of 15-year-olds will not survive until age 60. In addition, 27% of children below the age of five are stunted and so are at risk of cognitive and physical limitations that can last a lifetime. These indicators are much worse than in many countries at the similar income level. Furthermore, the learning gap in South Africa is large. A child who starts school at four years old can expect to complete 9,3 years of schooling by their 18th birthday (the expected years of schooling should be 13). Public spending on education is high, accounting for 6,1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017; similarly, about 8% of GDP is invested in health, and about 5% of GDP is spent on social assistance, including various youth employment initiatives (World Bank, 2023). Many countries spend less but achieve much higher HCI, signalling that South Africa needs to take a hard look at efficiency 5 and efficacy of its spending. It could achieve much more without significantly increasing spending (Dulvy, et al., 2024). South Africa’s, economic growth has indeed lagged population growth in recent years, leading to challenges in improving living standards and creating sufficient opportunities for the population. This means the economy isn't expanding fast enough to absorb new job seekers or provide a significant increase in per capita income (World Bank, 2023). Simultaneously, despite significant public spending on health and education, the outcomes are not commensurate with the investment, suggesting inefficiencies and a need for better resource allocation. Because the economy isn't growing as quickly as the population, per capita income (income per person) has been stagnant or even declining. This means that on average, people are not seeing significant increases in their wealth or access to resources. In South Africa, a slower economic growth rate compared to population growth creates significant challenges for social security and healthcare. This disparity puts strain on public resources, potentially leading to increased poverty, inequality, and reduced access to essential services like healthcare. QUESTIONS 1.1 Contextualise the development economic challenge South Africa is facing. Summarise the dual challenges facing South Africa; poor healthcare/education outcomes and slow economic growth; and explain how they are interconnected. 15 1.2 Apply economic development theory: Use Human Capital Theory, Endogenous Growth Theory, and Structural Change Theory to explain the relationship between investment in people and long-term economic growth. 20 1.3 Analyse empirical evidence: Use the provided data (e.g., DALYs, HCI, U-HCI, inhibiting, education outcomes, GDP vs. population growth) to evaluate South Africa’s performance and identify inefficiencies. 20 1.4 Assess policy inefficacies: Investigate why South Africa, despite high public spending on education and healthcare, is underperforming. Discuss issues like governance, equity, infrastructure, and access. 20 1.5 Suggest five targeted policy reforms that could enhance human capital productivity and align social investment with growth. Consider early childhood investment, healthcare system reforms, and education system restructuring. (Make recommendations) 15 1.6 Reflect on the broader implications of underdeveloped human capital for long-term socio-economic stability. (Conclusion)

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ECS3707
Assignment 5 PORTFOLIO Semester 2 2025
2 2025
Unique Number:
Due date: 7 October 2025
1.1 Introduction: Contextualising South Africa’s Dual Development Crisis

South Africa faces a serious development challenge that combines weak human capital
outcomes with slow and uneven economic growth. Human capital refers to the skills,
knowledge, and health that enable people to be productive and contribute to the economy
(Todaro & Smith, 2020). When people are well educated, healthy, and have access to
decent work, they are more likely to improve their own living standards and support national
development. However, South Africa continues to struggle with both poor outcomes in
education and healthcare and a stagnating economy that fails to create enough jobs or raise
incomes.

The crisis is rooted in long-standing structural inequalities that date back to apartheid and
are reinforced by modern inefficiencies in service delivery. The country has one of the
highest inequality levels in the world, which is reflected in unequal access to healthcare and
education (World Bank, 2023). The health system is divided between a small, well-resourced
private sector and a large, underfunded public sector that serves most of the population
(Senkubuge, Modisenyane & Bishaw, 2021). At the same time, the education system
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1.1 Introduction: Contextualising South Africa’s Dual Development Crisis

South Africa faces a serious development challenge that combines weak human
capital outcomes with slow and uneven economic growth. Human capital refers to
the skills, knowledge, and health that enable people to be productive and contribute
to the economy (Todaro & Smith, 2020). When people are well educated, healthy,
and have access to decent work, they are more likely to improve their own living
standards and support national development. However, South Africa continues to
struggle with both poor outcomes in education and healthcare and a stagnating
economy that fails to create enough jobs or raise incomes.

The crisis is rooted in long-standing structural inequalities that date back to apartheid
and are reinforced by modern inefficiencies in service delivery. The country has one
of the highest inequality levels in the world, which is reflected in unequal access to
healthcare and education (World Bank, 2023). The health system is divided between
a small, well-resourced private sector and a large, underfunded public sector that
serves most of the population (Senkubuge, Modisenyane & Bishaw, 2021). At the
same time, the education system produces mixed results: although South Africa
spends about 6% of its GDP on education, learning outcomes remain poor
compared to countries that spend less (Dulvy et al., 2024). Many learners leave
school without basic literacy or numeracy skills, which limits their ability to participate
in higher education or formal employment.

The poor health and education outcomes feed directly into low productivity and slow
economic growth. A country’s economy grows when its people can work efficiently,
innovate, and use their skills productively. In South Africa, however, the loss of
productive capacity due to disease, malnutrition, and skill shortages reduces the
overall performance of the economy. The Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) loss,
equivalent to about 41% of GDP, shows how much potential output is lost due to
illness and premature death (Senkubuge et al., 2021). Non-communicable diseases
such as diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular conditions now account for over
30% of the total disease burden (Koch, 2024). These conditions reduce the ability of

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working-age adults to contribute consistently to the economy and increase the cost
of healthcare for both the government and households.

In addition, South Africa’s population is growing faster than the economy. The
population has been increasing by about 1.5–2% per year, while GDP grew by only
0.6% in 2024 compared with 2023 (Stats SA, 2025). This gap means that per capita
income is declining, and the economy is not generating enough jobs or opportunities
for young people entering the labour market. High unemployment, especially among
the youth, limits household income and deepens poverty and inequality. The
economy’s limited capacity to absorb new entrants also weakens the motivation for
education, as many graduates cannot find suitable employment, creating a cycle of
disillusionment and dependency.

Health and education inequalities are therefore tightly connected to South Africa’s
broader economic performance. Poor health reduces productivity and increases
absenteeism, while weak education limits innovation and the ability to use
technology effectively. Both problems undermine the competitiveness of South
African industries and restrict the country’s potential for inclusive growth. At the
same time, slow growth restricts the resources available for investment in health and
education, creating a vicious cycle of underperformance. Public spending remains
high but inefficient, with limited measurable improvement in learning outcomes,
disease prevention, or job creation (World Bank, 2023).

South Africa’s dual crisis is not only about poverty or inequality in isolation but about
how weak human capital and slow growth reinforce each other. A weak education
and health system reduces the quality of the labour force, which then limits economic
expansion. In turn, low economic growth constrains government revenue, making it
difficult to improve service delivery or infrastructure. Breaking this cycle requires a
coordinated approach that recognises the central role of human capital in long-term
development and economic stability.




1.2 Theoretical Framework: Linking Human Capital to Long-Term Economic
Growth

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