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d459 Systems Thinking Task One

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D459 Task One

A. My chosen case study to analyze is case study one, Wilde’s Bramble.
1. Using the Iceberg Tool, Wilde’s Bramble case reveals a pattern of
increasing sales and debt, ultimately leading to a decline in profits
and a threat of bankruptcy. The key events are Wilde’s expansion
into new markets and increased production, followed by reliance on
debt to finance these activities. The underlying structure is a
reactive approach to growth, where short-term solutions like debt
are used to address immediate cash flow problems without
addressing the long-term sustainability of the business model.
Key events include the initial success. Wilde’s Bramble’s
achievements in local farmers’ markets and sales to local shops and
restaurants generated increased demand. The second aspect is
expansion and debt. To satisfy the growing demand, Alder and Calla
leased more farmland, acquired new equipment, and invested in
infrastructure, funding these actions through debt and savings.
Lastly, there is escalating debt. As credit card debt rose, they took
out a mortgage, and Calla worked off-farm to manage cash flow,
creating a cycle of dependence on debt.
In examining the patterns, we first observe an increase in sales. The
initial rise in sales was followed by further expansion and growth.
Next, we note a rise in debt. The Wildes increasingly relied on credit
cards and a mortgage to finance this expansion. Lastly, we see a
decline in profits. As debt payments and finance charges grew,
profits decreased.
Examining the underlying structure, we observe reactive expansion.
The Wildes reacted to the initial success with this approach, rather
than pursuing a more strategic growth planning strategy. Following
that, we notice a focus on short-term cash flow. Dependence on
debt served as a temporary fix for immediate cash flow issues, but
it failed to improve the long-term financial sustainability of the
business. Finally, we recognize a lack of financial planning. The
absence of a robust financial plan from Wilde contributed to the
accumulating debt and the unsustainable business model.
2. The Behavior Over Time Graph I feel best represents this study is
graph 2.
a. In graph two, we see that sales are rising and debt is increasing.
While there is initial success in profit, we observe that eventually,
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