Web-based experiments for the study of collective social dynamics in
cultural markets
Main points
Explores how individual behavioral tendencies lead to collective social dynamics in large groups
of people interacting over time (in the case of music downloads of new bands)
Customers are biased by information “nobody knows”.
To what extent does social influence explain inequality and unpredictability of cultural markets?
This article investigates the collective social dynamics in the field of music industry.
● investigate the role of social influence on the puzzling nature of success for cultural
products such as books, movies, and music
Overall, the results from Experiments 1 and 2 provided strong support for the argument that
social influence at the individual level is simultaneously responsible for increased inequality and
unpredictability in collective outcomes—in this case, the distribution of mar- ket share.
both inequality and unpredictability in cultural markets inevita- bly arise from an individual-level
process of social influence
Keywords
Collective social dynamics
(Perception of) popularity as quality signal
● Consumers have too many products to consider
● They use previous sales and perceived popularity as indication of quality
Coordinated choices and (fan) communities
● Shared consumption of cultural goods leads to
○ common interests
○ community formation
Observational learning
natural heuristic for dealing with this choice overload : to assume that the popularity of products
is somehow a signal of their quality, a phenomena sometimes called observation learning
heuristic
Success and failure in cultural markets
success in such cultural markets is tremendously unequal
● cultural markets are often characterized as ‘‘superstar’’ (Rosen, 1981) or ‘‘winner- take-
all’’
○ the cost of consuming cultural products is generally unrelated to their quality
● The prediction of success within the market has routinely fail.
The puzzle we address in this study therefore is the following: If hits are different in some way,
why do experts have such difficulty in identifying these products ahead of time?
, ● Explaining hits and flops: rather than assuming exogenous and stable preferences, this
research assumes that that preferences are neither exogenous nor stable, but are in fact
‘‘constructed’’ by a variety of features of the decision context itself
○ Influenced by observed actions of others
○ And Psychological features of the decision context
■ such as framing, anchoring, and availability
Social influence and cumulative advantage
The interdependence of decision making and, more specifically, the processes of social
influence and conformity
two broad insights that are relevant to social influence in cultural
1. in cultural markets, there are simply too many products for individuals to consider
1. As no one can possibly consider all of these products observation learning
occurs
■ Observational learning (individual level) can lead to information cascades
(collective level)
■ Occurs when people observe the actions of others and make the
same choice independently of their private information
2. in cultural markets, people may benefit from coordinating their choices with others
1. by listening to, reading, or watching the same things, friends, and even
strangers, construct common points of interest around which they can interact,
thereby fostering notions of commonality and community.
both correspond to an individual-level tendency to imitate the behavior of others. From this
perspective, popular products will tend to become more popular, leading to ‘‘cumulative
advantage’’ or ‘‘rich-gets-richer’’ dynamics, as recent experiments have demonstrated
Results from previous studies suggest that the puzzling nature of success in cultural markets
could follow naturally from the process of social influence at the individual level.
Experimental design
Case: An artificial cultural market
Before considering our main question about inequality and unpredictability of success, we first
measure whether the information about the popularity of the songs affected participants’
behavior at all, and whether this effect was larger in Experiment 2, where the information was
made more salient.
Participants visit a website
● Could listen to 48 songs by unknown bands
● After listen, rate the songs (1-5 scale)
● Were allowed to download the songs
, They compare behavior at different websites
● Information on previous downloads vs no information
● Previous downloads: songs/bands sorted by popularity ratings vs randomized order
Experiment 1 Experiment 2
Order of the
presentations of
songs
The sorting method of NOT sorted by popularity Sorted by popularity
the songs and
probability to listen
cultural markets
Main points
Explores how individual behavioral tendencies lead to collective social dynamics in large groups
of people interacting over time (in the case of music downloads of new bands)
Customers are biased by information “nobody knows”.
To what extent does social influence explain inequality and unpredictability of cultural markets?
This article investigates the collective social dynamics in the field of music industry.
● investigate the role of social influence on the puzzling nature of success for cultural
products such as books, movies, and music
Overall, the results from Experiments 1 and 2 provided strong support for the argument that
social influence at the individual level is simultaneously responsible for increased inequality and
unpredictability in collective outcomes—in this case, the distribution of mar- ket share.
both inequality and unpredictability in cultural markets inevita- bly arise from an individual-level
process of social influence
Keywords
Collective social dynamics
(Perception of) popularity as quality signal
● Consumers have too many products to consider
● They use previous sales and perceived popularity as indication of quality
Coordinated choices and (fan) communities
● Shared consumption of cultural goods leads to
○ common interests
○ community formation
Observational learning
natural heuristic for dealing with this choice overload : to assume that the popularity of products
is somehow a signal of their quality, a phenomena sometimes called observation learning
heuristic
Success and failure in cultural markets
success in such cultural markets is tremendously unequal
● cultural markets are often characterized as ‘‘superstar’’ (Rosen, 1981) or ‘‘winner- take-
all’’
○ the cost of consuming cultural products is generally unrelated to their quality
● The prediction of success within the market has routinely fail.
The puzzle we address in this study therefore is the following: If hits are different in some way,
why do experts have such difficulty in identifying these products ahead of time?
, ● Explaining hits and flops: rather than assuming exogenous and stable preferences, this
research assumes that that preferences are neither exogenous nor stable, but are in fact
‘‘constructed’’ by a variety of features of the decision context itself
○ Influenced by observed actions of others
○ And Psychological features of the decision context
■ such as framing, anchoring, and availability
Social influence and cumulative advantage
The interdependence of decision making and, more specifically, the processes of social
influence and conformity
two broad insights that are relevant to social influence in cultural
1. in cultural markets, there are simply too many products for individuals to consider
1. As no one can possibly consider all of these products observation learning
occurs
■ Observational learning (individual level) can lead to information cascades
(collective level)
■ Occurs when people observe the actions of others and make the
same choice independently of their private information
2. in cultural markets, people may benefit from coordinating their choices with others
1. by listening to, reading, or watching the same things, friends, and even
strangers, construct common points of interest around which they can interact,
thereby fostering notions of commonality and community.
both correspond to an individual-level tendency to imitate the behavior of others. From this
perspective, popular products will tend to become more popular, leading to ‘‘cumulative
advantage’’ or ‘‘rich-gets-richer’’ dynamics, as recent experiments have demonstrated
Results from previous studies suggest that the puzzling nature of success in cultural markets
could follow naturally from the process of social influence at the individual level.
Experimental design
Case: An artificial cultural market
Before considering our main question about inequality and unpredictability of success, we first
measure whether the information about the popularity of the songs affected participants’
behavior at all, and whether this effect was larger in Experiment 2, where the information was
made more salient.
Participants visit a website
● Could listen to 48 songs by unknown bands
● After listen, rate the songs (1-5 scale)
● Were allowed to download the songs
, They compare behavior at different websites
● Information on previous downloads vs no information
● Previous downloads: songs/bands sorted by popularity ratings vs randomized order
Experiment 1 Experiment 2
Order of the
presentations of
songs
The sorting method of NOT sorted by popularity Sorted by popularity
the songs and
probability to listen
