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Lecture notes

Decision Trees

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An example of how to draw a decision tree and how to draw a conclusion based upon that data.

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Decision Trees



0.8- Competitor enters
New Product Line
£750,000


-£600,000
0.2 - Doesn't enter £1,250,000
250k

0.7 - No competitor
Do nothing £500,000



£0 (£500,000)
0.3 - Competitor Enters




New Product Line:

 (0.8 x £750,000) + (0.2 x £1,250,000) =
 600,000 + 250,000 = 850,000 - 600,000 = 250,000.

Leave it:

 (0.7 x £500,000) + (0.3 x - £500,000) =
 350,000 + 150,000 = 200,000k.

The best option is to introduce a new product line.

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