Summary public policy analysis: an integrated approach
Sixth edition
William N. Dunn
,Index
Part I Methodology of policy analysis 2
Chapter 1 The process of policy analysis 2
Chapter 2 Policy analysis in the policymaking process 5
Part II Methods of policy analysis 9
Chapter 3 Structuring policy problems 9
Chapter 4 Forecasting expected policy outcomes 13
Chapter 5 Prescribing preferred policies 20
Chapter 6 Monitoring observed policy outcomes 25
Monitoring policy outcomes 25
Chapter 7 Evaluating policy performance 32
Part III Methods of policy communication 37
Chapter 8 Developing policy arguments 37
Chapter 9 Communicating policy analysis 40
1
,Part I Methodology of policy analysis
Chapter 1 The process of policy analysis
Multidisciplinary policy analysis
The methodology of policy inquiry refers to the critical investigation of potential solutions to practical
problems. Abraham Kaplan, one of the founders of the policy sciences, observed that the aim of
methodology is to help understand and question, not only the products of policy inquiry, but the
processes employed to create these products.
Policy analysis is partly descriptive. It relies on traditional social science disciplines to describe and
explain the causes and consequences of policies. But it is also normative, a term that refers to value
and judgements about what ought to be, in contrast to descriptive statements about what is. To
investigate problems of efficiency and fairness, policy analysis draws on normative economics and
decision analysis, as wel on ethics and other branches of social and political philosophy.
Policy analysis is designed to provide policy-relevant knowledge about five types of questions:
1. Policy problems
a. what is the problem for which a potential is sought?
b. what alternatives are available to mitigate the problem?
c. what are the potential outcomes of these alternatives and what is their value or utility?
2. Expected policy outcomes
a. what are the expected outcomes of policies designed to solve a problem?
b. what is the likelihood that the policy problems actually get solved by this specific
policy in comparison to another policy?
3. Prefered policies
a. which policies should be chosen when not only there expected outcomes matter but
also with other values like justice
4. Observed policy outcomes
a. what policy outcomes are observed, as distinguished from the outcomes expected
before the adoption of a prefered policy?
b. are the outcomes of the policy an result of the policy or are other factors responsible
for the outcomes of the policy?
5. Policy performance
a. to what extent has policy performance been achieved?
b. to what extent has the policy achieved other measures of policy performance?
These five questions have the following meaning:
1. Policy problems: representations of problem situations, which are diffuse sets of worries,
inchoate signs of stress, or surprises for which there is no apparent solution. Knowledge
about policy problems includes at least two potential solutions to the problem and, if available,
the probability that each alternative is likely to achieve a solution. Inadequate or faulty
knowledge may result in serious or even fatal errors: defining the wrong problem.
2. Expected policy outcomes: likely consequenties of adopting one or more policy alternatives to
solve a problem
3. A prefered policy: a potential solution to a problem.
4. An observed policy outcome: a present or past consequence of implementing a prefered
policy.
5. Policy performance: the degree which an observed policy outcome contributes to the solution
of a problem.
A fatal error of policy making is a type III error: defining the wrong problem.
The five types of policy-relevant knowledge are produced and transformed by using policy-making
methods, which are the vehicles driving the production and transformation of knowledge. There are
the following five policy-making methods:
1. Problem structuring: problem-structuring methods are employed to produce knowledge about
what problem to solve (e.g. the influence diagram or the decision three)
2
, 2. Forecasting: forecasting methods are used to produce knowledge about expected policy
outcomes (e.g. scorecards based on the judgments of experts)
3. Prescription: methods of prescription are employed to create knowledge about prefered
policies (e.g. spreadsheets with therms of monetary benefits and costs of the policies)
4. Monitoring: methods of monitoring are employed to produce knowledge about observed policy
outcomes (e.g. using scorecards for monitoring observed policy outcomes as well as
forecasting expected policy outcomes)
5. Evaluating: evaluating outcomes are used to produce knowledge about the value or utility of
observed outcomes and their contributions to policy performance
The first method, problem structuring, is about the other methods. For this reason, it is a metamethod.
In the course of structuring a problem, analysts typically experience a difficult situation, where the
difficulty is, as it were, spread throughout the entire situation, infecting it as a whole. Problem
situations are no not problems, because problems are representations or models of problem
situations.
Forms of policy analysis
Problem-analytic methods are interdependent. It is not possible to use one method without using
others. Relationships between among types of knowledge and methods and provide a basis for
contrasting different forms of policy analysis:
1. Prospective and retrospective analysis:
a. prospective analysis involves the production and transformation of knowledge before
prescriptions are made (what will happen and what should be done?
b. retrospective analysis involves the analysing of the outcomes of a solution (what
happened and what difference did it make?). Retrospective analysis characterizes the
operating styles of several groups of analysts:
i. discipline-oriented analysts: this group seeks to develop and test
discipline-based theories about the causes and consequences of policies.
THis group is not concerned about with the identification of policy variables
that are subject to manipulation and those that are not
ii. problem-oriented analysts: this group seeks to describe the causes and
consequences of policies but are less concerned with the development and
testing of of theories that are important to social science disciplines. They are
concerned with identifying variables that may explain the problem
iii. application-oriented analysts: this group seeks to describe the causes and
consequences of of policies and pays little attention to the development of
and testing of theories. This group is dedicated to the identification of
manipulative policy variables that can potentially achieve specific objectives
that can be monitored and evaluated to evaluate the success of policies
2. Descriptive and normative analysis
a. descriptive policy analysis: parallels with the descriptive decision theory, which refers
to a set of logically consistent propositions that describe or explain action. Descriptive
decision theories may be tested against observations obtained through monitoring
and forecasting
b. normative policy analysis: parallels with normative decision theory, which refers to a
set of logically consistent propositions that evaluate or prescribe action. Different
kinds of knowledge are required to test normative policy description
3. Problem structuring and problem solving
a. problem structuring: the inner cycle of policy analysis consists of designates
processes of problem structuring. Processes of problem structuring are designed to
identify elements that go into the definition of a problem, but not to identify the
solution of the problem
b. problem solving: the outer cycle of policy analysis consists of designates processes of
problem solving methods. These are designed to solve a problem and not to structure
a problem. Problem solving is primarily technical in nature, in contrast to problem
structuring which is primarily conceptual (e.g. econometric forecasting or benefit-cost
analysing methods)
3
Sixth edition
William N. Dunn
,Index
Part I Methodology of policy analysis 2
Chapter 1 The process of policy analysis 2
Chapter 2 Policy analysis in the policymaking process 5
Part II Methods of policy analysis 9
Chapter 3 Structuring policy problems 9
Chapter 4 Forecasting expected policy outcomes 13
Chapter 5 Prescribing preferred policies 20
Chapter 6 Monitoring observed policy outcomes 25
Monitoring policy outcomes 25
Chapter 7 Evaluating policy performance 32
Part III Methods of policy communication 37
Chapter 8 Developing policy arguments 37
Chapter 9 Communicating policy analysis 40
1
,Part I Methodology of policy analysis
Chapter 1 The process of policy analysis
Multidisciplinary policy analysis
The methodology of policy inquiry refers to the critical investigation of potential solutions to practical
problems. Abraham Kaplan, one of the founders of the policy sciences, observed that the aim of
methodology is to help understand and question, not only the products of policy inquiry, but the
processes employed to create these products.
Policy analysis is partly descriptive. It relies on traditional social science disciplines to describe and
explain the causes and consequences of policies. But it is also normative, a term that refers to value
and judgements about what ought to be, in contrast to descriptive statements about what is. To
investigate problems of efficiency and fairness, policy analysis draws on normative economics and
decision analysis, as wel on ethics and other branches of social and political philosophy.
Policy analysis is designed to provide policy-relevant knowledge about five types of questions:
1. Policy problems
a. what is the problem for which a potential is sought?
b. what alternatives are available to mitigate the problem?
c. what are the potential outcomes of these alternatives and what is their value or utility?
2. Expected policy outcomes
a. what are the expected outcomes of policies designed to solve a problem?
b. what is the likelihood that the policy problems actually get solved by this specific
policy in comparison to another policy?
3. Prefered policies
a. which policies should be chosen when not only there expected outcomes matter but
also with other values like justice
4. Observed policy outcomes
a. what policy outcomes are observed, as distinguished from the outcomes expected
before the adoption of a prefered policy?
b. are the outcomes of the policy an result of the policy or are other factors responsible
for the outcomes of the policy?
5. Policy performance
a. to what extent has policy performance been achieved?
b. to what extent has the policy achieved other measures of policy performance?
These five questions have the following meaning:
1. Policy problems: representations of problem situations, which are diffuse sets of worries,
inchoate signs of stress, or surprises for which there is no apparent solution. Knowledge
about policy problems includes at least two potential solutions to the problem and, if available,
the probability that each alternative is likely to achieve a solution. Inadequate or faulty
knowledge may result in serious or even fatal errors: defining the wrong problem.
2. Expected policy outcomes: likely consequenties of adopting one or more policy alternatives to
solve a problem
3. A prefered policy: a potential solution to a problem.
4. An observed policy outcome: a present or past consequence of implementing a prefered
policy.
5. Policy performance: the degree which an observed policy outcome contributes to the solution
of a problem.
A fatal error of policy making is a type III error: defining the wrong problem.
The five types of policy-relevant knowledge are produced and transformed by using policy-making
methods, which are the vehicles driving the production and transformation of knowledge. There are
the following five policy-making methods:
1. Problem structuring: problem-structuring methods are employed to produce knowledge about
what problem to solve (e.g. the influence diagram or the decision three)
2
, 2. Forecasting: forecasting methods are used to produce knowledge about expected policy
outcomes (e.g. scorecards based on the judgments of experts)
3. Prescription: methods of prescription are employed to create knowledge about prefered
policies (e.g. spreadsheets with therms of monetary benefits and costs of the policies)
4. Monitoring: methods of monitoring are employed to produce knowledge about observed policy
outcomes (e.g. using scorecards for monitoring observed policy outcomes as well as
forecasting expected policy outcomes)
5. Evaluating: evaluating outcomes are used to produce knowledge about the value or utility of
observed outcomes and their contributions to policy performance
The first method, problem structuring, is about the other methods. For this reason, it is a metamethod.
In the course of structuring a problem, analysts typically experience a difficult situation, where the
difficulty is, as it were, spread throughout the entire situation, infecting it as a whole. Problem
situations are no not problems, because problems are representations or models of problem
situations.
Forms of policy analysis
Problem-analytic methods are interdependent. It is not possible to use one method without using
others. Relationships between among types of knowledge and methods and provide a basis for
contrasting different forms of policy analysis:
1. Prospective and retrospective analysis:
a. prospective analysis involves the production and transformation of knowledge before
prescriptions are made (what will happen and what should be done?
b. retrospective analysis involves the analysing of the outcomes of a solution (what
happened and what difference did it make?). Retrospective analysis characterizes the
operating styles of several groups of analysts:
i. discipline-oriented analysts: this group seeks to develop and test
discipline-based theories about the causes and consequences of policies.
THis group is not concerned about with the identification of policy variables
that are subject to manipulation and those that are not
ii. problem-oriented analysts: this group seeks to describe the causes and
consequences of policies but are less concerned with the development and
testing of of theories that are important to social science disciplines. They are
concerned with identifying variables that may explain the problem
iii. application-oriented analysts: this group seeks to describe the causes and
consequences of of policies and pays little attention to the development of
and testing of theories. This group is dedicated to the identification of
manipulative policy variables that can potentially achieve specific objectives
that can be monitored and evaluated to evaluate the success of policies
2. Descriptive and normative analysis
a. descriptive policy analysis: parallels with the descriptive decision theory, which refers
to a set of logically consistent propositions that describe or explain action. Descriptive
decision theories may be tested against observations obtained through monitoring
and forecasting
b. normative policy analysis: parallels with normative decision theory, which refers to a
set of logically consistent propositions that evaluate or prescribe action. Different
kinds of knowledge are required to test normative policy description
3. Problem structuring and problem solving
a. problem structuring: the inner cycle of policy analysis consists of designates
processes of problem structuring. Processes of problem structuring are designed to
identify elements that go into the definition of a problem, but not to identify the
solution of the problem
b. problem solving: the outer cycle of policy analysis consists of designates processes of
problem solving methods. These are designed to solve a problem and not to structure
a problem. Problem solving is primarily technical in nature, in contrast to problem
structuring which is primarily conceptual (e.g. econometric forecasting or benefit-cost
analysing methods)
3
