Lecture 9
Transitions
● Definition of a regime change: “a change in the rules about who governs the country and
how”
● The 4 possible types of regime transitions:
○ 1. Autocratic → autocratic
○ 2. Autocratic → democratic
○ 3. Democratic → autocratic
○ 4. Democratic → democratic
● 1. Most regime transitions have failed to achieve democracy
● 2. Or these regime revert back to some sort of authoritarian regime right afterwards
● 3. Since 1974, there have been more democratic transitions
● 4. Changes in which a democratic regime goes to a democratic regime again is rare
Karl’s Types of Transitions
Compromise Force
Elite led Pact Imposition (coup)
(people who have already
access to power)
Mass led Reform Revolution
(ordinary people)
Pacts (ELITE LED)
● Agreements among elites including both opposition and rulers
● No violence, intervention
● Alternate office, share policy
● Amnesty for previous rulers (a ruler may agree to step down in order to avoid criminal
prosecution)
○ Examples:
■ 1. Columbia 1958-1972
■ 2. Chile 1923-1970
■ 3. Venezuela 1958
Positives about Pacts
● It is the safest way out of authoritarianism
● Reduces uncertainty for those who already have power
● Establishes rules about the rules
Negatives about Pacts
, ● The process itself is undemocratic and it subverts majority rule:
○ “Pacts tend to reduce competitiveness as well as conflict; they seek to limit
accountability to wider publics; they attempt to control the agenda of policy
concerns; and they deliberately distort the principle of citizen equality.”
● Leads to exclusionary politics, marginalizes sectors
● Restricts competition
Coups (ELITE LED)
● Coups are successful efforts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to
unseat the sitting executive using unconstitutional means
● Coups success rate:
○ 48 percent between 1950-2010
○ 67 percent after its end 2011
■ Even though coups have become more successful over time, the number of
coups attempted has decreased
■ Therefore, coups are now generally only attempted if they believe that
they will be successful
Coups by regime type
● During the cold war, ½ of autocracies experienced at least 1 coup
● In contrast, just ⅓ democracies faced 1 coup
● In the post war period, it is equally likely in both democracies and autocracies
Coup leaders
● 1) They maintain the regime (for example the rules and who rules stays the same but just
the leader changes)
● 2) Replace old dictatorship with a new one
● 3) Replace old dictatorship with a democracy
Regime change followed coups
● Coups more often lead to autocratic regimes than to democratic regimes
● Most coups and also coup attempts are actually followed by increased repression
Contexts in which mass led transitions take place:
1. For regime change from autocratic to democratic
2. To resist authoritarian policies, democratic backsliding, contest elections
3. To improve/expand democratic governance
Collective action problem
● It is difficult to start and sustain mass mobilization
, ● Individuals have incentives to free ride
○ This is especially hard in authoritarian regimes in which participating in a mass
movements has harsh punishments
Where can we expect mass movements?
● Mass movements tend to take place in regimes that have the most extreme cases of
domination and racial exclusion
Which mass movements are most likely to be successful?
● The Arab spring was successful depending on the features of the regime
● Non-violent mass movements are more successful than violent ones
When are mass non-violent movements successful in authoritarian regimes?
● Definition of uprising: “a mass, non-violent protest in many areas of a country that
occupies a physical space”
Transitions
● Definition of a regime change: “a change in the rules about who governs the country and
how”
● The 4 possible types of regime transitions:
○ 1. Autocratic → autocratic
○ 2. Autocratic → democratic
○ 3. Democratic → autocratic
○ 4. Democratic → democratic
● 1. Most regime transitions have failed to achieve democracy
● 2. Or these regime revert back to some sort of authoritarian regime right afterwards
● 3. Since 1974, there have been more democratic transitions
● 4. Changes in which a democratic regime goes to a democratic regime again is rare
Karl’s Types of Transitions
Compromise Force
Elite led Pact Imposition (coup)
(people who have already
access to power)
Mass led Reform Revolution
(ordinary people)
Pacts (ELITE LED)
● Agreements among elites including both opposition and rulers
● No violence, intervention
● Alternate office, share policy
● Amnesty for previous rulers (a ruler may agree to step down in order to avoid criminal
prosecution)
○ Examples:
■ 1. Columbia 1958-1972
■ 2. Chile 1923-1970
■ 3. Venezuela 1958
Positives about Pacts
● It is the safest way out of authoritarianism
● Reduces uncertainty for those who already have power
● Establishes rules about the rules
Negatives about Pacts
, ● The process itself is undemocratic and it subverts majority rule:
○ “Pacts tend to reduce competitiveness as well as conflict; they seek to limit
accountability to wider publics; they attempt to control the agenda of policy
concerns; and they deliberately distort the principle of citizen equality.”
● Leads to exclusionary politics, marginalizes sectors
● Restricts competition
Coups (ELITE LED)
● Coups are successful efforts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to
unseat the sitting executive using unconstitutional means
● Coups success rate:
○ 48 percent between 1950-2010
○ 67 percent after its end 2011
■ Even though coups have become more successful over time, the number of
coups attempted has decreased
■ Therefore, coups are now generally only attempted if they believe that
they will be successful
Coups by regime type
● During the cold war, ½ of autocracies experienced at least 1 coup
● In contrast, just ⅓ democracies faced 1 coup
● In the post war period, it is equally likely in both democracies and autocracies
Coup leaders
● 1) They maintain the regime (for example the rules and who rules stays the same but just
the leader changes)
● 2) Replace old dictatorship with a new one
● 3) Replace old dictatorship with a democracy
Regime change followed coups
● Coups more often lead to autocratic regimes than to democratic regimes
● Most coups and also coup attempts are actually followed by increased repression
Contexts in which mass led transitions take place:
1. For regime change from autocratic to democratic
2. To resist authoritarian policies, democratic backsliding, contest elections
3. To improve/expand democratic governance
Collective action problem
● It is difficult to start and sustain mass mobilization
, ● Individuals have incentives to free ride
○ This is especially hard in authoritarian regimes in which participating in a mass
movements has harsh punishments
Where can we expect mass movements?
● Mass movements tend to take place in regimes that have the most extreme cases of
domination and racial exclusion
Which mass movements are most likely to be successful?
● The Arab spring was successful depending on the features of the regime
● Non-violent mass movements are more successful than violent ones
When are mass non-violent movements successful in authoritarian regimes?
● Definition of uprising: “a mass, non-violent protest in many areas of a country that
occupies a physical space”
